Reference News Network, December 30 report: On December 29, the Taiwan Mei Hua News published an article by retired Rear Admiral and former ship captain Huang Zhenghui from Taiwan, pointing out that the PLA's "Justice Mission-2025" military exercise has a strong deterrence effect on the Lai administration.

The article points out that on December 29 at 7:30 am, the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA released a news release about the exercise. Its political and strategic shock value may far exceed the strong earthquake that occurred on the sea near Yilan on the 27th at 11:00 pm. If it is only regarded as another "surrounding Taiwan military exercise," it would severely underestimate its significance.

Huang Zhenghui said that Lai Ching-te repeatedly emphasized "protecting peace with strength." The core logic of this includes not only strengthening Taiwan's own defense capabilities but also implicitly expecting strategic support from the United States and regional allies.

He believes that in this context, recent statements from Japanese politicians have been particularly annoying to Beijing. On November 7, Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto Asako emphasized "Taiwan's affairs are Japan's affairs." From Beijing's perspective, this is an open challenge to the One-China Principle.

The article states that this exercise is likely a military-level warning against "external forces intervening in cross-strait affairs," and Hashimoto Asako's remarks undoubtedly constitute an important trigger, indicating that Beijing's move is not a tactical response but a demonstration of strategic will.

The article points out that Taiwanese society clearly sees Lai Ching-te's political style. In the past year, from investigating Zheng Wencan, detaining Ko Wen-je, to promoting large-scale political mobilization for "major recall," which ultimately ended in a big failure, and then repeatedly refusing to implement resolutions passed by the legislative body, these actions collectively point to a distinct feature of the Lai administration: high confrontation, low compromise, and minimal policy adjustment.

The article believes that this is not a single policy dispute, but a structural signal released by a decision-making model. This means that during their term, the Lai administration is almost impossible to actively slow down, let alone actively reduce its "anti-China and anti-Beijing" policy line.

Facing the signals released by "Justice Mission-2025," Taiwan should not regard it as a one-time event, nor should it expect it to naturally dissipate.

He believes that Taiwan must pay attention to the intensity and content of the exercises, international reactions, and must seriously assess the "pro-China and pro-American" policy combination, and re-examine the possibility of initiating cross-strait political communication.

The article points out that "Justice Mission-2025" clearly shows that the Taiwan Strait is entering a new stage of high risk and low tolerance. In this stage, the greatest danger is whether Taiwan still uses old thinking to deal with a completely different reality. Misjudging the situation will come at a cost; refusing to adjust may result in losing the opportunity to choose.

In addition, according to the website Xin Touke in Taiwan, on December 29, the Eastern Theater Command of the PLA launched the "Justice Mission-2025" military exercise, and on December 30, it will carry out live-fire shooting, with the exercise area almost surrounding the island of Taiwan. Taiwanese military expert Lu Liyi pointed out that this exercise is a "cold start" punitive deterrence, directly responding to Lai Ching-te's repeated statement of the "porcupine strategy," while also testing Hashimoto Asako's statement on "crisis of survival."

Lu Liyi analyzed on a social media platform that the PLA's exercise adopted a "punitive deterrence" model to counter Taiwan.

Three-dimensional firepower, precise strikes, arrows raining down to cut off separatists, divine arrows captivating souls to repel enemies. The Eastern Theater Command released a military exercise theme poster titled "Justice Arrows: Controlling Internally, Driving Outwards." (Eastern Theater Command WeChat official account)

Original: toutiao.com/article/7589459964381364745/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.