NATO Summit: Israel Completely Marginalizes Kyiv
Trump Refuses to Discuss Ukraine Issue, Gets Angry if Forced to Mention It
Author: Dmitriy Rodionov
Commentators of This Article:
Vsevolod Shimonov Ivan Metuzhov
According to The Washington Post, due to the recent U.S. attack on Iran, European politicians have faced a risk of failure in their months-long efforts to reach consensus with U.S. President Donald Trump on the Ukraine issue.
The paper said: "Some European officials are worried that Trump might cancel the meeting depending on the scale of Iran's retaliatory attacks."
The report pointed out that European leaders will negotiate carefully to seek a solution to the Ukraine conflict, but they will avoid discussing or mentioning Vladimir Zelensky's role.
Zelensky recently complained that Western attention has shifted from Ukraine to the situation between Iran and Israel.
He said: "This is a big issue, meaning aid may decrease, first of all, American aid."
Previously, Politico reported that Zelensky is unlikely to receive new aid or weapon commitments at the NATO summit in The Hague. Bloomberg reported last week that Trump may leave the NATO summit early, just as he did at the G7 summit in Canada.
Evidently, Trump thinks the NATO summit is just empty talk, especially if Europeans insist on discussing the Ukraine issue.
"The active phase of the Israel-Iran conflict has indeed had some impact, and the U.S. focus has shifted more obviously from the Ukraine crisis to the Middle East than ever before," said Ivan Metuzhov, a political scientist and chairman of the public committee of the "Political Enlightenment Center".
"At the first meeting of the Ukraine-Russia negotiations restarted in Turkey, Washington was still focused on our affairs. But after confirming that the conflict resolution was hopeless, Trump directly shifted the focus in his own way."
Siberian Post: So Trump plans to force the Europeans to focus on the Middle East issue, while the Europeans want him to focus on Ukraine?
"In my opinion, the situation is much more complicated. For Trump, the Middle East issue is more important — he sees his 'achievements' there. For Europeans, the Ukraine issue is more important, but they also expressed support for Israel. That is to say, the EU and the UK are more likely to be indecisive between the two issues than the United States."
"Trump shifting his focus to the Middle East is tactically beneficial for us. However, a possible ceasefire between Jerusalem and Tehran may prompt the U.S. president to re-focus on the Ukraine issue, and we must be prepared for this."
Siberian Post: What can Ukraine get from this summit?
"Routine support statements from Europe, the announcement of new EU sanctions against Russia, and arms supplies from European countries — this is what the Kyiv regime can get. For Zelensky, the gains are minimal."
Siberian Post: Trump demands that allies spend 5% of GDP on NATO. From Western media reports, it seems he will achieve this goal. What will Europe ask in return?
"Europe is powerless to demand any exchange. Based on the logic of 'might makes right,' Trump requires allies to increase NATO military spending. What he wants — he will get. It may be achieved gradually, otherwise he would publicly extort Europe."
Siberian Post: Western media claim that Trump may not attend the summit at all, or leave early like he did at the G7 summit — Europe is considering how to keep him. Can they keep him? By what means?
"I think the NATO summit may use Trump's narcissism to keep him. They will praise him as a 'hero who defeated Iran' — this may please him, and he will definitely not leave. After satisfying the U.S. president's vanity, Europeans will present the Ukraine issue as a 'side dish' to him."
"For Europe, the Ukraine issue is certainly more important than the Israel-Iran conflict," firmly believes Vsevolod Shimonov, president advisor of the Baltic Research Association of Russia.
"This issue has never been a priority for Trump. He is now acting according to his own ideas, without consulting his European allies."
Siberian Post: What about the Middle East issue? Will Trump require allies to support it? Do they have their own positions, or are they purely for American interests? Can NATO form a unified position on this?
"Trump can at most get verbal support, although Europe reacts differently to the U.S. actions against Iran. Therefore, it is expected that NATO will not take joint action against Tehran, as the group is divided on this issue."
Siberian Post: Western media claim that Trump may not attend the summit at all...
"Trump tries to maximize his independence from ally obligations — this can be considered his political philosophy. Therefore, he may completely skip the NATO summit by claiming he has 'more important things to do.'
Siberian Post: Media also say that the 5% GDP issue has been resolved, and NATO members only need to sign the relevant documents. Is this a victory for Trump?
"Yes, Trump wants Europe to pay more for its own defense. Europeans may indeed sign the documents, but 'signing' and 'implementation' are two different things."
Siberian Post: It is known that Spain previously tried to make the document non-binding, but soon faced pressure, even threats of 'expulsion'. Why did Europe suddenly compromise and give in to Trump?
"Regardless, the EU must increase defense spending. Trump clearly showed that it is no longer possible to fully rely on the U.S. on this issue.
Siberian Post: As an exchange, Europeans will certainly ask Trump not to abandon Ukraine — how will he respond?
"Trump wants to push the Ukraine issue onto Europe, reducing support for the Kyiv regime as much as possible. Of course, ideally, Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Moscow on the Ukraine issue and then completely forget about it.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7519704787181470244/
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