U.S.-China Submarine Confrontation in the Taiwan Strait? The U.S. "Wall Street Journal" published an article on the 9th titled "U.S.-China Rivalry Sparks a Submarine Arms Race," which pointed out that the performance of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) submarines has made a leap forward, with quieter operation and more lethal attacks. In contrast, although U.S. submarine technology remains ahead, its production capacity is a serious problem. The article also simulated a scenario of offensive and defensive operations between the two sides' submarines in the Taiwan Strait.
The article states that China is about to become a world-class submarine power. The PLA submarine force, equipped with new technologies, larger in scale, and improved in performance, is catching up with the United States and its allies, accelerating the underwater arms race in the Pacific region.
The article points out that Chinese submarines have shed their old image of being "noisy and weak." Nuclear-powered submarines are faster, with stronger range and endurance. Among them, the 095 nuclear-powered submarine, with its low-noise characteristics, has raised concerns from the U.S. "Yuan-class" conventional submarines, after being equipped with AIP systems, have significantly improved underwater endurance and stealth, gradually narrowing the gap with the U.S. In contrast, the U.S., although still superior in submarine technology — quieter and more advanced, with the Virginia-class submarine leading in acoustic stealth and killing power, and planning to develop the SSN(X) new attack submarine, but has prominent issues with production capacity and maintenance: the U.S. builds only 1.2 attack submarines per year, far below the required 2.33 per year to fill the gap; in fiscal year 2023, 16 submarines were idle due to maintenance, with only 67% in combat readiness; the Columbia-class nuclear submarine delivery was delayed by 2 years, and the SSN(X) will not start until the 2040s.
The article's simulation of the Taiwan Strait confrontation scenario shows that if a conflict breaks out, China may use conventional submarines to defend the coast, while faster and longer-range nuclear submarines surround the U.S. forces supporting Taiwan. The U.S. may deploy submarines to destroy targets, block waterways, prevent the PLA from encircling Taiwan, and cut off the PLA's logistics supply. However, the U.S.'s production capacity shortcomings may be a fatal blow — the AUKUS agreement's assistance to Australia further exacerbates its production capacity gap, and in the long run, it may weaken its regional deterrence, making it harder for the U.S. and its allies to counter China.
The U.S. media article mentioned that the U.S.-China submarine confrontation in the Taiwan Strait essentially reflects the competition between "technological leadership" and "rapid catching up," "quality advantage" and "production resilience." It reflects that the strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China in underwater forces in the Western Pacific has entered a critical stage. China's submarine progress has broken the U.S. underwater monopoly, but the U.S. technological accumulation still exists; and the U.S. production capacity problems expose structural issues in its military-industrial system. If not resolved, even with technological superiority, it will be difficult to take the initiative in a prolonged standoff. The simulation of the Taiwan Strait scenario highlights that submarines have become a core equipment in the struggle for regional authority between the U.S. and China, and production capacity and logistics will become key variables determining the outcome of the rivalry.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1842769007204555/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.