【By Observer Net, Liu Bai】

"There are differences in the confidence of nations; some have it, others don't; some had it before but lost it later." On July 17, The New York Times published an opinion article by columnist David Brooks, and the country he referred to as "having lost its confidence" is the United States under Trump's leadership.

Brooks warned in his article that today's American leaders still do not understand a principle deeply understood by the Chinese: whoever can fully tap into their talent advantages will dominate the future. However, the Trump administration, facing China's rise in technology and innovation, is obsessed with a "race to the bottom," cutting research and education funding, ignoring the importance of talent and innovation, and engaging in trade protectionism, making enemies everywhere, thus losing a crucial psychological and national belief battle.

On May 29, Harvard University graduates participated in the graduation ceremony in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Visual China

"China is on the rise, and Americans are no longer the most optimistic group."

The author believes that the U.S. performance during the Cold War against the Soviet Union and its current response to China show a sharp contrast: In the 1950s, the U.S. had natural confidence, while now, despite being more powerful, this calm confidence has vanished.

When the Soviet Union launched the first artificial Earth satellite, Sputnik, Americans were shocked, but responded confidently and decisively. Within a year, the U.S. established the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA, later DARPA), which propelled many major technologies, including the Internet. In 1958, Eisenhower signed the National Defense Education Act, becoming one of the most important educational reforms of the 20th century.

Subsequently, the U.S. government included improving math, science, and foreign language education in its goals, tripling the budget of the National Science Foundation. The Department of Defense significantly increased R&D investment. Within a few years, total R&D spending across all government departments approached 12% of the federal budget, while now it is only 3%.

Brooks said that at that time, U.S. leaders understood that great power confrontation was not only a military and economic contest, but also a test of intellect, a competition of who had greater innovative capacity. They countered the Soviet threat through education, hoping to maximize the potential of their own talent.

American historian Hal Brands once wrote in a book: "The reason why the U.S. performed well economically during the Cold War was because its universities performed better."

Data shows that federal funding for academic research increased from $254 million in 1958 to $1.45 billion in 1970. Brands pointed out that in the early 20th century, American universities lagged behind European top universities, but by the end of the Cold War, they dominated global higher education.

Shandong Dongying: Workers producing silicon carbide wafer products in a workshop. Visual China

Today, China's academic and scientific progress is rapid.

The article states that in the past few decades, the U.S. position on China was unclear, but now China is widely seen as the U.S. opponent. For example, Robert D. Atkinson, chairman of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, claimed in an article in The New York Times this year that China's main goal is to weaken the U.S. economy and lay the groundwork for becoming the number one global power, with profit being a secondary objective.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, China has confidently moved toward the future, especially in innovation and knowledge fields. China's total R&D investment has grown by 16 times since 2000. Now, China surpasses the U.S. in multiple academic areas. In 2003, Chinese scholars had almost no highly cited papers; now, their "high-impact" papers exceed those of the U.S.

According to The Economist, China dominates completely in fields such as materials science, chemistry, engineering, computer science, environment and ecology, agricultural science, physics and mathematics.

These scientific achievements have directly driven China's widespread leading position in high-tech industries. Not only in manufacturing sectors like electric vehicles, drones, and solar energy, but in "almost all high-tech fields."

Data from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) shows that between 2003 and 2007, in 64 frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence and cryptography, the U.S. led China in 60 areas, while China led in only three. However, in the latest report from 2019 to 2023, the ranking has completely reversed: China leads in 57 of the 64 key technologies, while the U.S. leads in only seven.

Especially in the field of biotechnology, China's progress has been remarkable. In 2015, Chinese pharmaceutical companies accounted for less than 6% of global innovative drug development; after ten years, they are almost on par with the U.S.

Then came the emergence of artificial intelligence. Overall, Americans are fearful of AI. Last year, market research firm Ipsos conducted a survey in 32 countries: Are you excited or anxious about the future of AI? Americans were one of the most anxious groups; the most excited countries were: China, South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand. No one really knows what the future of AI holds, but this survey reflects the emotional state of most people. Americans used to be the youngest and most optimistic group globally, but not anymore.

On July 15, in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, volunteers from Jiangsu University showed children the functions of a "robot dog." Visual China

Although America's big tech companies are still vibrant and full of talent, seemingly able to maintain their leading position, in the past year, Chinese companies such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent have launched AI models that have almost caught up with those of the U.S. DeepSeek even developed a model that costs far less than U.S. products. In the AI field, the U.S. still leads, but China is showing strong momentum.

The AI race may become the key to determining dominance over the next few decades. "Whoever's technology is more widely adopted globally will win this race," Microsoft President Brad Smith said on May 8 during a hearing in the U.S. Congress. "The lessons from Chinese companies and 5G are that whoever captures the market first is hard to displace."

"America seems to have lost its faith and is disconnected from the future"

So, how is the U.S. responding to the biggest challenge after the Cold War? Will it significantly increase R&D investment, inject funds into schools and universities to cultivate talent and stimulate innovation?

The answer is the opposite. Today's American leaders seem to not understand a principle deeply understood by the Chinese: whoever can fully tap into their talent advantages will dominate the future.

Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University, wrote in his blog: "In the face of the DeepSeek moment, the U.S. response is not determination and competition, but anxiety and retreat."

The Trump administration did not increase university R&D funding, but instead cut expenditures; it did not triple the National Science Foundation budget, but planned to cut it. The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) stated that the Trump administration planned to cut one-third of basic research funding. A survey of 1,600 scientists in the U.S. by Nature magazine found that two-thirds of them considered leaving the U.S.

The article continues, saying that in response to the "Sputnik" threat from the Soviet Union, the U.S. responded with openness and competition; but in response to the Chinese challenge, Trump chose to build walls, impose tariffs, and protect itself.

A normal country would strengthen friendships with everyone except China, but the U.S. is making enemies everywhere. A normal country would strive to rebuild its shipbuilding industry to be globally leading, but the U.S. relies on protectionism to maintain. Its logic seems to be: we can protect our mediocre industries by closing our borders. This is the recipe for the decline of a nation.

The article also says that the problem is not just about Trump. China has shown continuous intellectual and innovative vitality for decades, while the U.S. has made almost no progress. The U.S. sometimes appears tired and rigid, as if having lost its faith and being disconnected from the future.

The Progressive Era (referring to 1890-1917) saw the U.S. establish new institutions such as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Federal Reserve Board; the New Deal period (referring to Roosevelt's New Deal after 1933) created a large number of new institutions; around 1949, the U.S. founded NATO and the predecessor of the World Bank.

Now, what new institutions has the U.S. achieved? The government itself is not good at innovation, but over the past century, public funding has always been a necessary fuel for creativity, as seen in the U.S., Israel, and China. But in this regard, the U.S. is regressing.

The article concludes that China's dominant position is not inevitable, but the most fundamental contest is psychological and even spiritual.

"Do Americans still believe in the power of human thought? Are they willing to invest in expanding the national talent pool? Currently, they are not. Regardless of left or right, Americans are too focused on risks, lack belief, and are skeptical of national projects. How can a country with huge advantages but no confidence deal with itself?"

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528331168975012386/

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