Latest data shows that the number of initial unemployment insurance claims in the first week of January in the United States rose to 231,000, significantly higher than market expectations. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits also increased to 1.84 million. Official explanations attribute this rise mainly to extreme cold waves and blizzards that caused business shutdowns and disrupted logistics. Therefore, this increase cannot be fully equated with a sudden deterioration in the economy; it is more like the result of weather shocks combined with short-term disturbances. Looking at the four-week average, the current situation is in a weak but manageable range, indicating that employment is becoming fragile but has not yet gone out of control.
What is truly concerning is the corporate layoff data. According to Challenger's statistics, the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in January 2026 reached 108,400, an 118% year-on-year increase, setting the worst January record since the 2009 financial crisis. Nearly half of these layoffs came from large companies such as Amazon, UPS, and Dow Chemical. The main reasons were reduced orders, weakening economic outlooks, and internal reorganization. This indicates that many companies had already started to contract ahead of time for the "cooler period" in 2026, which is a more forward-looking warning signal than the unemployment rate.
At the same time, the number of job vacancies in the U.S. fell to 6.54 million in December, the lowest level since 2020, and below all market expectations. The decline was mainly concentrated in professional services and retail sectors, while layoffs in transportation and warehousing increased significantly. Although the number of hires has rebounded slightly, the overall trend remains weak. Currently, there are about 0.9 job openings per unemployed person, far below the 2:1 ratio seen during the peak in 2022. This indicates that companies are generally adopting a defensive posture, no longer actively expanding but rather observing the economic direction.
From the perspective of the Federal Reserve, the current labor market still maintains a fragile balance of "low hiring and low layoffs." Wage pressures are not enough to drive inflation, so the Fed continues to maintain an observation stance. However, Chair Powell has clearly stated that if employment further deteriorates, the central bank will consider easing monetary policy again. This means that current data is gradually accumulating reasons for future rate cuts, although the timing is not yet ripe.
The impact of the slowdown in employment has already begun to affect the consumer level. A recent survey shows that the proportion of people who believe it is difficult to find a job has risen to the highest level since 2021, and middle-income families have seen sluggish wage growth. Employment anxiety is suppressing consumption, real estate, and credit demand, forming a self-reinforcing cycle of economic slowdown.
Overall, the current U.S. labor market exhibits a characteristic of "superficial stability but internal cooling." Companies have already started to contract, and the demand for labor has continued to weaken, with a clear increase in layoff plans. Risks are slowly accumulating. It is not yet the stage of a recession, but it has entered the early phase of a downward trend, belonging to a "slow cooling" process.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1856317251560649/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.