As the unrest in Iran escalates, Trump is considering various military options to support the protesters. With no U.S. aircraft carriers stationed in the Middle East, analysts are concerned that Trump may redeploy the carriers originally stationed in the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, thereby creating a carrier vacuum in the Indo-Pacific.

Trump wants to attack Iran, but there are no carriers in the Middle East

Analysts further point out that many U.S. carriers are under repair or have just completed long deployments, making them difficult to deploy immediately. Japan may have to take on more defense responsibilities and change its long-standing defense model of "contradictory division of labor."

According to "Nikkei Asia," Trump has recently been intensively briefed by senior officials on military options to support the protests in Iran. On January 11, he clearly told reporters, "We are examining very strong options." However, the core challenge for the White House currently is that they have no carriers deployed in the Middle East.

Although the U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers, most of them are either undergoing long-term repairs or have just completed long deployments and cannot be used immediately. Of the five carriers usually deployed in the Middle East, based on the East Coast of the United States, it seems that only the "Bush" is currently capable of deployment. Even so, it will still take several weeks to reach the Middle East.

A faster option would be to re-deploy the "Lincoln" currently operating in the South China Sea along with two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers to Iranian waters. This operation is similar to the mode during the previous president Biden's administration, where the former defense secretary Austin frequently redeployed carriers from the Western Pacific to the Middle East to replace long-deployed vessels and monitor the situation in Gaza.

Although the U.S. also deploys the "Washington" at the Yokosuka base in Japan, it has just completed a deployment lasting several months and is preparing for maintenance.

If carriers are really redeployed to the Middle East, the fastest one is the "Lincoln"

Under this context, Asian officials and analysts are increasingly worried that Trump may redeploy the only available carrier currently stationed in the Western Pacific to the Middle East to support related operations in order to attack Iran.

East Asian experts are also worried that if the "Lincoln" really leaves, its combat power may be weakened after returning. Former Commander of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and retired vice admiral Koichi Koda told "Nikkei Asia": Attacking Iran would inevitably involve launching a large number of missiles, which would greatly consume its missile inventory.

If the "Lincoln" really goes, Japan's pressure may increase. Professor Satoshi Mori of Keio University stated: Japan's options are actually limited, and it will have to take on more responsibility for defense in the Indo-Pacific region, which means Japan needs to adopt a more forward deployment in the Western Pacific. This also highlights a trend: the strategic roles of the U.S. and Japan in the Western Pacific are changing.

The traditional U.S.-Japan defense model was "the U.S. as the spear and Japan as the shield." However, since Japan released its new "Defense White Paper" in 2022, Japan has gradually introduced counterattack capabilities and significantly increased defense spending, leading to a change in this division of labor. If the "Lincoln" really leaves, Japan will need to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. forces and assume part of the "spear" role, marking a shift from "functional division of labor" to "regional division of labor." In the future, Japan will face greater defense pressure. Considering the tense Sino-Japanese relations due to the recent "Taiwan issue" comments by Takahashi Hayato, Japan's potential pressure could be even greater.

Although the Middle East or the Indo-Pacific are currently active, U.S. experts believe that times have changed, and the most important area in Trump's mind remains the Western Hemisphere, the core of "Trumpism." After other regions' hotspots subside, Trump will return to the Americas.

If U.S. carriers leave, Japan will have to fill part of the vacuum

At an event held by the Washington-based think tank "Center for Strategic and International Studies" on January 11, Senior Researcher Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute pointed out: Asia, the Middle East, and Europe have all competed for U.S. strategic attention in the past, but now everyone has to admit that these three regions can only come after the Americas.



Original: toutiao.com/article/7595049072180904482/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.