[Military Second Plane] Author: Lele

In the situation where the Hongqi-9BE is still unclear and the 48 J-10CE aircraft are also hanging in mid-air, the European "Bulgarian Military" website has again reported that "Egypt has been negotiating with China for several months regarding the procurement of Type 039 submarines." This matter does indeed have some feasibility.

▲The description by the "Bulgarian Military" website is simple yet direct.

To be strictly accurate, Egypt had previously purchased submarines from China once before, and this sale to Egypt was also the first export of a domestically produced submarine by AVIC. At that time, the four Type 033 submarines sold to Egypt were the first proper foreign sales of domestic submarines. Only, the J-7 took off from this point, eventually selling hundreds of units, while the export of Type 033 only happened once. The Egyptian Navy gave fairly positive evaluations to these submarines, which, despite their simple structure and reliable performance, were not top-tier. They have been in use since the 1980s and have not been retired; they even underwent an upgrade during this period. In 2011, the Egyptian Navy procured two Type 209 submarines from Germany for 920 million euros, subsequently purchasing two more, all four of which have now been delivered.

▲Egyptian Type 033 submarines

Initially, it was thought outside that these four Type 209 submarines were intended to replace the Type 033s. However, after the Egyptian Navy received them all and then announced plans to purchase four more submarines, people realized that Egypt intended to double its submarine fleet. As high-value equipment in the international arms market, submarine trade has always attracted many competitors, so quite a few suppliers rushed to bid for the Egyptian Navy's business. First to arrive was Germany, which, having already supplied four Type 209 submarines and made a substantial profit, wouldn't complain about earning another one. Moreover, with the framework of the previous four submarines in place, training and maintenance could save a lot of money. However, the Egyptian Navy didn't want to put all its eggs in one basket, so they quickly rejected Germany.

▲Type 209 submarines awaiting delivery to Egypt

The second to step forward was France, as a country that has supplied military equipment to Egypt for decades, Egypt had long harbored resentment over missing out on the four submarine order. Although the Egyptian Navy recognized the performance of the "squid," given that they already had French-built "Mistral" amphibious assault ships and frigates, they were reluctant to introduce more French submarines. Next came Russia, when the Su-35SE order was not entirely shattered, Russia still wanted to get a piece of the submarine project pie, although it seems impossible now. The fourth to appear was South Korea, offering its KSS-III type based on German submarines.

▲South Korean submarines have been very active in recent years

If nothing unexpected happens, Egypt should ultimately choose between France and South Korea, with South Korea likely to win, because the latter is willing to cut prices significantly and its submarine performance has been tested through exports. However, with Chinese submarines making a strong rise and successfully securing a $5 billion order from the Pakistani Navy, the situation eventually became a "three-way contest." According to the "Bulgarian Military" website, after contacting France and obtaining basic transaction information, the Egyptian Navy gradually focused its attention on "two East Asian countries," repeatedly negotiating quotes, technology transfers, and specific details of the AIP system since last year.

▲Egypt places great importance on the performance of the AIP system

Starting this year, "Chinese shipbuilding industry gained more negotiation opportunities and made noticeable progress faster than its rivals." The article argues that Egypt's special status requires it to pursue diversified weapon supplies while maintaining balance among major powers. South Korea's international influence is far less than China's, which lost significant points in submarine exports. Additionally, China's military industry platform integration level is well-known, and with the possible introduction of J-10CE and more Chinese export equipment, there is potential for future integration with submarines to form a sea-air joint combat system, something South Korea cannot achieve.

▲J-10CE has endless possibilities

Suffice it to say, the export of J-10CE, Hongqi-9BE, and Type 039 submarines to Egypt feels somewhat unreal. But in fact, these were originally supposed to be orders for Russian defense enterprises - Su-35SE, S-400, and "Kilo" were what Egypt initially intended to acquire. However, due to interference from the United States, they had to stop. And given that they already have quite a bit of European equipment, importing heavily from China is really Egypt's only remaining option, though these arms deals won't yield results so quickly.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498190283625087514/

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