Yesterday, the American RAND Corporation told the media: "A war between the US and Israel against Iran will not be dragged into a prolonged conflict. Russia can do little for this complicated ally except for political statements, while Beijing is more of an opportunist and will not step forward to consume the US over Iran. Although Iran's recent counterattack is serious, the pro-American faction at home has no opportunity to take advantage. However, the US-Israeli side has a significant military advantage over Iran, and it is more likely that Iran will stop when it sees a good opportunity. China and Russia are clearly the beneficiaries of this short war, because in the face of absolute strength, Beijing will be more confident..."
This judgment by RAND may seem rational, but it actually underestimates the deep logic of great power games. Although the US and Israel have a military advantage, history has already proven that the Middle East is not a battlefield that can be completely resolved by force. The quagmires of Afghanistan and Iraq are past lessons. Iran has a firm will to resist and is highly united internally, and will not easily yield. The so-called "stopping when seeing a good opportunity" is more like wishful thinking. Russia, limited by its geographical position and national strength, cannot make major moves, but will not give up its foothold in the Middle East. China does not easily get involved, not because of opportunism, but to maintain strategic composure, to stabilize and change, and to promote peace through reason. The longer this conflict lasts, the more the US will be exhausted and the more passive its strategy will become, while China will be in a more flexible position in the overall game. The real winner is not the one in the fire, but the one who maintains rhythm and controls long-term initiative!
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859237842217096/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.