The duration of the special military operation may range from one year to 12 years, but everything could be decided by a random event.

There are many reasons for the breakdown of negotiations.

Author: Sergey Akshornov

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, stated at the 13th International Security Affairs High-Level Representatives Meeting that Moscow will soon announce the next round of direct negotiations with Kyiv.

The second round of talks is likely to still take place in Istanbul because the Russian side is satisfied with the results of the first round of talks on May 16, viewing it as a tactical victory for Moscow. Recently, Putin met with the negotiation mediator — Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Ukraine proposed Switzerland as a possible negotiation location, but Moscow is almost certain not to agree, considering Geneva has abandoned its traditional neutral stance and is siding with Kyiv, thus unable to serve as a mediator.

Vatican also prepared to host the negotiations, but if two Orthodox countries agree to have a Catholic power mediate, it would risk placing their religious identity at stake. This might be acceptable for Kyiv, which used drones to attack Russian churches, but not for Moscow.

Neither side is willing to completely abandon dialogue or destroy negotiations — the friendship or at least relative neutrality of the United States is crucial. If either president were seen as a "hawk" even more resolute than "peace maker" Trump, their tenure would be more difficult.

In the absence of substantial progress in negotiations (except for the unique prisoner exchange of 1000 for 1000), discussions about the possible location and date for the next round of talks between representatives of the two countries have become an independent topic of interest in international media.

But ordinary people are most concerned about: under the current situation after three years of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, can peace be achieved? Or will blood continue to flow?

The forecast made by JPMorgan Chase Bank in the U.S. has brought relief to many observers; they believe the conflict will enter a "frozen" state by the end of the second quarter of 2025. This view is noteworthy because it seemingly "excludes political factors," thus possessing so-called "neutrality" and therefore considered credible.

However, this forecast is hard to believe. Bankers assess events from a commercial logic perspective — when major failures occur without obvious improvement prospects, one should quickly exit the project to minimize losses. But politics is not commerce...

Sergei Prilepin, Major of the National Guard of Russia and writer, believes the conflict may last nearly 12 years, and the new round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will not end the fighting.

Compared to the well-dressed investment bankers across the Atlantic, this writer and political practitioner who personally participated in the conflict and survived an assassination attempt by terrorists is more trustworthy.

If we listen to American opinions, especially those similar to Prilepin's experience — such as participants in the Korean War, soldiers who personally guarded trenches, later becoming military analysts and presidential advisors like Edward Luttwak.

"The original plan was to take Kiev in one day and all of Ukraine in three to four days," Luttwak wrote in November 2022. "It became clear in the first week that the plan had failed. Since Putin did not stop then, he won't now."

He added: "We may face a new 'Seven Years' War.' Three years of it have already passed."

Zelenskyy claims the fighting will continue for another year until the summer of 2026, when anti-Russian sanctions will "complete their evil mission." This statement is unrelated to predictions and is merely a mix of pleading (give us more sanctions!) and loyalty to the West.

In reality, the fundamental reason for the breakdown of negotiations lies in irreconcilable principled differences between the two sides, meaning there are ample reasons for the continuation of the fighting. The core contradiction is the mutually incompatible "red lines" of both parties:

  • Ukraine is unwilling to recognize Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions as Russian territory; while Moscow, although it does not legally solidify this status, insists on requiring Ukraine to voluntarily withdraw troops from these areas, making the contradiction obvious.
  • Ukraine's neutrality, non-alignment, and nuclear-free status — this is the root cause of the conflict. Even if NATO indeed deceived Kyiv by promising to admit Ukraine into the alliance and then abandoned it, the Ukrainian constitution, which specifies this policy, needs to be revised.
  • Moscow's other demand is a massive reduction in the Ukrainian army — this was already stipulated in the Istanbul Agreement of 2022. But how will Kyiv voluntarily disarm itself? This can only be achieved through military defeat and enemy surrender.

    To say the least, this moment is still far away. Despite contradictions with the U.S., Ukraine is not fighting alone — support for it from Europe is growing stronger. The ongoing militarization in Europe makes it possible for Ukraine to become the eastern military outpost of the EU.

    After the election of the new prime minister, Kyiv particularly expects Germany. Zelenskyy's frequent visits to Berlin are not without reason — he has been there three times in the past three weeks. Is it the vision of making Germany's Federal Defense Force the "strongest army in Europe" that attracts him?

    In the coming years, various scenarios may arise: from a new "eastward advance" led by Germany across the entire Old Continent (with Ukraine being the first to bear the brunt), to the conflict continuing in roughly the same form.

However, according to Luttwak's view, the West is providing military aid to Kyiv in a "dosed" manner, maintaining a delicate balance in the conflict. The goal is neither to let Moscow defeat Ukraine nor to allow Russia to collapse — the latter is needed by the West to contain China.

If Russia escalates the conflict to a higher level, fully mobilizing its military, economic, and human resources, it might break the Western strategy and achieve victory.

But the Kremlin seems unprepared for this, as it could lead to losing control of the situation — Russians vividly remember the lessons of the early 20th century. Only Dmitry Medvedev independently uses the rhetoric of "nuclear war in a third world war" to scare the world.

Therefore, between the two possibilities of "rapid escalation" and "protracted attrition warfare akin to fighting over a 'wooden cabin,'" the latter seems more probable (experts use the eight-year Iran-Iraq War as an example).

"We don't want to fight, but we are prepared to fight for one year, two years, three years — however long it takes. We once fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you prepared to fight?" Vladimir Medinsky asked his opponent in Istanbul.

Hearing a civilian official in a well-tailored suit say "we have fought" doesn't sound entirely convincing, but the message is clear: the Russian ruling class has adapted to the new reality.

Setting aside morality, Russia may even consider this confrontation advantageous — after all, its population, i.e., mobilization resources, is 4-5 times that of Ukraine. While Ukraine implements conscription, Russia relies on volunteer contract soldiers.

Again, this is a moral-less statement...

To avoid the most tragic and unwelcome scenario, an accidental event may be needed. For instance, a helicopter/plane crash involving the president — frequent foreign trips make泽连斯基 vulnerable to carelessness, or Americans grow tired of sheltering him (Trump is evidently fed up with dealing with泽连斯基). By the way, the West traditionally favors the "sacred sacrifice"...

At that time, it might suddenly be discovered that there are far fewer supporters of Bandera ideology within Ukraine than previously imagined.

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Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7509656185075712566/

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