China is determined to reclaim the business it lost, and with full confidence. Panama spoke well this time, claiming it will treat all parties equally. Whether it can live up to its words remains to be seen.

Director of the Panama Canal Authority

Recently, according to foreign media reports, the Director of the Panama Canal Authority, Vásquez, issued a statement revealing that Panama plans to award concessions for two new ports next year, which are expected to be operational by 2029. He stated that currently, many companies have shown strong interest in the project, including several Chinese enterprises.

The ups and downs between Chinese enterprises and the Panama Canal are not something that happened in a day. Nearly 30 years ago, a company under the control of Li Ka-shing obtained the concession rights for two ports of the Panama Canal. After years of construction, the port efficiency doubled, becoming a benchmark in Central America. However, this year, Trump suddenly criticized China, claiming that the Panama Canal has been controlled by China.

Panama Canal

Furthermore, Trump pressured the Panamanian government to conduct investigations on Chinese enterprises. Under pressure, the Panamanian government initially strongly supported China but eventually yielded to Trump's demands and announced its withdrawal from the "Belt and Road Initiative". In March this year, Hong Kong Cheung Kong agreed to sell all related businesses to an American consortium, but subsequently, China launched an anti-monopoly review, and the transaction has not yet been completed.

In the context of U.S. President Trump threatening to "reclaim" the Panama Canal, this new bidding process may trigger a new round of conflict between China and the United States. Currently, bidders come from multiple shipping and port operators, including China, Germany, Denmark, etc. However, Vásquez stated that they will treat all bidders equally and welcome investments from all sides.

The Panamanian government has ambitious plans, aiming to attract $8.5 billion in investments over the next ten years for projects such as expanding port capacity, building natural gas pipelines, and constructing new artificial lakes. The construction of the two new ports is at the core of this large-scale plan. The Canal Authority plans to build new ports in Corozal on the Pacific side and in Tierra Firme on the Atlantic side, with an estimated total investment of about $2.6 billion.

Cosco Shipping

Once these two independently operated transshipment terminals are built, Panama's annual container handling capacity will nearly double, significantly enhancing Panama's position as a global multimodal transport hub. Chinese enterprises daring to stand up against international giants are not merely due to financial strength. Taking Cosco Shipping as an example, its global port throughput reached 120 million TEU in 2024, and it has successful cases like the Port of Piraeus in Greece.

However, beyond commercial logic, the specter of geopolitics always lingers. China is concerned that although the Panamanian government has made solemn commitments to treat all parties equally, China has already suffered once before, and whether Panama is trustworthy remains to be considered. If China successfully wins the bid, how will the Panamanian government ensure it can withstand U.S. pressure and protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises?

Li Ka-shing

Facing the rivalry between the two major economies, China and the United States, Panama tries to uphold the principle of neutrality, but this card is not easy to play. Legally, Panama's constitution indeed stipulates that foreign investors enjoy national treatment, and there are multiple economic and trade cooperation agreements signed with China, but in reality, policy continuity is worrying. For Chinese enterprises to break through, they must focus on compliance operations, risk avoidance, and demonstrating technological transparency.

The results of this bidding process are expected to be announced in the fourth quarter of 2026. Regardless of whether Chinese enterprises win the bid or not, it will reshape the global shipping landscape. For Panama, "keeping promises" is not only a matter of commercial integrity, but also a test of national sovereignty. If Panama again caters to the United States and sacrifices the interests of Chinese enterprises, it may lose China as an important trading partner.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7577293463000826383/

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