Silver, tungsten, antimony... China's key minerals ensure China's national interests.

Japanese media quoted South Korean media "Chosun Ilbo" reported that China implemented strict export controls on key materials for high-tech industries at the beginning of the new year. Silver, tungsten and antimony are managed by the Chinese government, with export companies designated every two years, and steel is an important strengthening of various export standards. As the strategic competition between the US and China over raw materials continues, China's resource regulation seems not only to target rare earths, but also to expand to key materials.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the list of companies authorized to export controlled minerals in 2026 and 2027 on December 30 last year. There are currently 44 silver companies, 15 tungsten companies, and 11 antimony companies, which means that large state-owned trading enterprises must undergo a qualification exam every two years. To pass the "exam," they must meet two years of export performance, production and supply capabilities, various certifications, and legal compliance requirements. In particular, silver has the characteristics of a safe-haven asset similar to gold, but due to the huge demand from industries such as solar cells, electronics, and electric vehicles (EV), even a slight reduction in supply could cause significant price fluctuations. The People's Daily Securities Times stated: "The new silver export control policy means silver has been officially listed in the national strategic resources list," and "silver export control has reached the same level as rare earths."

On the same day, China introduced for the first time in 16 years a steel export licensing system. 300 types of steel products are specified under tariff items, covering raw materials and finished products, and exports require a "certificate of quality inspection passed." A trade industry official in Beijing analyzed: "The Chinese government uses the expansion of high-value-added steel exports as an excuse to strictly limit the export of key raw materials." Industry analysts said that China has introduced a steel product export licensing system while stockpiling large amounts of chromium and manganese needed for special steel smelting.

If "Rare Earths" was a preview of China's "resource weaponization" policy, then the tightening of raw material regulations including steel can be seen as a signal that this strategy has expanded to the entire industry and entered the market. Beyond the stage of controlling a single mineral, China is likely to completely control the supply of mineral raw materials, intermediates, and finished products in the future, and grasp the foundation of the global supply chain (supply network).

If China adopts a raw material export licensing system and replaces tariffs with reserves, it can minimize diplomatic friction and maximize pressure on other countries. Some analysts believe that China immediately began to control the supply of silver because the US government added silver and copper to the "critical minerals" list in November last year.

The South Korean government plans to respond by thoroughly analyzing the impact of China's strengthened licensing system on South Korean industries and supply chains. Compared to last year's exports (3,116 tons), imports (830 tons) are relatively small, but Hong Kong and China rank third and fourth respectively in import destinations, which may affect procurement. In the short term, it may be difficult to purchase cheap raw materials from China in sectors such as shipbuilding and automobiles. A South Korean government official said: "Some small and medium-sized enterprises involved in importing and processing Chinese steel may face obstacles or increased costs."

Antimony is a byproduct of smelting gold and silver, but it is important because it is widely used in multiple industries such as armor-piercing shells, semiconductors, military electronic equipment, and solar cells. China accounts for 41% of South Korea's antimony imports, and the United States relies on China to provide more than 60% of its antimony imports. During President Yoon Suk-yeol's visit to China on January 4, strengthening Sino-Korean supply chain cooperation became a major topic.

However, China's raw material export restrictions may have some positive effects on South Korea. This is because if the Chinese government requires steel exporters to obtain quality certification, it will become a defense against the influx of low-cost, low-quality Chinese steel. The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Energy's Trade Commission has already strengthened import supervision of low-cost Chinese steel in recent years, such as imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese thick plates, hot-rolled plates, and sheets, or initiating application procedures. Antimony also significantly expanded exports to the United States last year, and this trend is expected to accelerate.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1853891048343616/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.