【By Wang Li, Jinyu Studio】
As the global asset allocation map is preparing for profound changes, foreign institutions are re-examining the Chinese market with unprecedented attention.
On October 16, the "2025 Shanghai Global Asset Management Forum", co-hosted by Yicai and China Bank, was held in Shanghai. Several top international investment institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Warburg Pincus, Neuberger Berman, Pictet, and Andera Partners, gathered together to engage in in-depth discussions on investment opportunities under the "14th Five-Year Plan".
The decade-long "American Exceptionalism" is now facing a serious challenge. This investment logic, once regarded as an unshakable doctrine by global investors—“just allocate to U.S. assets to get stable returns”—is now being questioned.
Vincent Mortier, Chief Investment Officer of Amundi Asset Management Group, warned that the market might be at the calm before the storm. At the same time, the Chinese capital market has shown strong resilience after the policy shift in September 2024, with the "miraculous rebound" of the A-shares and H-shares markets reigniting the interest of foreign investors.
More importantly, the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" has painted a clear picture of China's economic development blueprint for global investors. From technological innovation to green transformation, from consumption upgrade to supply chain reshaping, multiple dimensions of investment opportunities are emerging. Foreign institutions generally believe that China is transitioning from a "world factory" to a "technology power" and a "consumer giant," and this historical process will create significant value space for long-term investors.
End of American Exceptionalism? Foreign Investors Re-evaluate Global Allocation Logic
The weakening of "American Exceptionalism" has become the most important narrative shift in the global asset management industry in 2025. This investment paradigm dominated global capital flows over the past decade—regardless of economic cycles, allocating to U.S. assets seemed to always bring stable returns. However, this consensus is now unraveling.
Vincent Mortier, Chief Investment Officer of Amundi Asset Management Group, clearly pointed out at the forum that "American Exceptionalism is being challenged." Although U.S. economic data has been impressive since April this year, corporate earnings have been solid, and the market has even returned to historical highs, the concerns of seasoned investors are deepening. Fan Xiang, Chairman of Goldman Sachs China, quoted: "Vincent's conclusion is that the worst case hasn't happened yet, but we are worried about being in the calm before the storm."
This concern is not unfounded. Top global investors are taking action: some are adding hedging protection for dollar assets, while others are seriously considering shifting funds from the U.S. market to other markets. This strategic adjustment is driven by multiple concerns: overvaluation of the U.S. market, increasing policy uncertainty, and doubts about the sustainability of economic growth.
In this context, the attractiveness of the Chinese market has significantly increased. In the past year, the Chinese capital market has experienced a "miraculous rebound." The policy shift on September 24, 2024, became an important turning point, followed by a dramatic rise in the H-shares and A-shares markets, which made international investors re-examine the investment value of the world's second-largest economy. Fan Xiang revealed that the stock issuance and convertible bond scale in Hong Kong's market in 2023 was $23 billion, increased to $35 billion in 2024, and reached $76 billion so far in 2025, showing exponential growth. "In a good market environment, the issuance of quality products can attract rather than consume liquidity, which is a positive cycle."
Notably, the reconfiguration of foreign capital into the Chinese market is not a short-term speculative act, but based on long-term strategic judgment. Zhao Junjie, Equity Partner of Pictet Group, stated, "As a fund management company with 220 years of history, headquartered in Geneva, Pictet has contacts with European institutional investors who are more long-term oriented. Even during the previous years when the Chinese market faced many challenges, these investors' confidence in Chinese assets never decreased, and we did not see large-scale redemptions. After the recent rebound in the Chinese stock market, existing overseas clients have started to increase their allocation to Chinese assets, particularly French, German, and South American investors have acted particularly quickly."
Yan Xiaoqing, General Manager of Bridgewater Fund (China), shared a detail at the forum: after the U.S. introduced tariff measures in April, the group's senior leadership was deeply concerned about the impact on the Chinese market and held an emergency meeting. "At the meeting, we introduced in detail the achievements of the new and old energy conversion in China over the past decade, the investment opportunities brought by the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the integrity of the supply chain." In June, Bridgewater invited European pension fund executives to visit China and had in-depth communication with Chinese regulators. These institutional investors were impressed by the continuity and execution efficiency of Chinese policies.
The change in foreign sentiment is also reflected in actual actions. Zhou Lang, Co-President of Warburg Pincus China Private Equity, revealed that in the past 12 months, two of Warburg's invested companies have successfully gone public in Hong Kong, and two others are currently waiting for listing. "The reopening of the IPO market after several years of closure is of great significance for the primary market." More encouragingly, the performance of the China-Europe Fund and Huabao Fund, which Warburg has invested in, has significantly improved in the bull market over the past 9-10 months, which has added confidence to its long-term strategy in China.
From a Liquidity Bull to a Fundamental Bull: The Quality Turn of the Chinese Market
There is a common perception both inside and outside the market that the strong rebound in the Chinese stock market since September 2024 is a "liquidity bull." However, according to foreign institutions, this judgment simplifies the profound changes that are taking place in the Chinese market. What they see is a qualitative transformation from liquidity-driven to fundamental support.
"I very much agree that liquidity is the foundation of any bull market, but I truly believe that this bull market is not just liquidity-driven," Yan Xiaoqing said at the forum. "What we see is a change in fundamentals, including various aspects such as corporate earnings." He pointed out that the core of this change lies in the new and old energy conversion promoted by the "Made in China 2025" plan, which has changed the problem of imbalanced economic structure. New productive forces are really playing a role, the technological content of the industrial chain continues to increase, and the resilience of the supply chain has significantly strengthened.
Foreign institutions pay particular attention to the institutional reforms in the Chinese capital market. Yan Xiaoqing believes that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has played a key role in market standardization: "Mandatory dividends, regular delistings, strict crackdowns on fraud, and promoting mergers and acquisitions to remove toxic assets from the market—these institutional safeguards are the ecological foundation for the sustained and healthy development of the market." For long-term investors who emphasize "patient capital," they need to believe that they are investing in real assets, not fictitious concepts.
The structural differences between the Hong Kong and A-share markets have also become a topic of discussion. Fan Xiang analyzed the characteristics of the two markets in detail: "Many listings in Hong Kong are overnight lightning placements, and the investor base is mainly foreign capital; while the regulatory procedures and product types in A-shares are completely different." He emphasized that the two markets are actually complementary and there is no issue of one "siphoning" liquidity from the other. "The Hong Kong bull market started first, leading global investors to allocate A-share assets through channels like the Stock Connect and QFII, thereby driving the upward trend of the A-share market, which is a positive cycle."
Zhao Junjie of Pictet shared observations from the perspective of European long-term capital: "Even when the Chinese market faced challenges in previous years, European institutional investors' confidence in Chinese assets never truly wavered." She mentioned an interesting detail to illustrate the international influence of Chinese consumer brands: "I just came back from the group's annual meeting in Geneva, and I had a LABUBU toy hanging on my bag. Many European colleagues approached me, and they actually knew this brand!" This small story reflects the new trend of Chinese brand globalization.
Foreign institutions have also keenly observed the profit margins of Chinese enterprises going abroad. Zhao Junjie cited data indicating: "The gross profit margin of Chinese enterprises abroad is 10%-15% higher than domestic, and the absolute value of profit margin is 3-10 times that of domestic." This means that Chinese enterprises that have successfully achieved globalization not only expand their market space but also gain higher profitability, creating considerable return space for investors.
Zhou Lang of Warburg Pincus observed from the perspective of the primary market that the M&A and restructuring market has seen a significant increase in activity under policy support. "In the past two or three years, the reform efforts in removing policy barriers have been substantial, removing about 70% of obstacles from a quantitative perspective." Although he believes that the M&A exit ecology in the primary market still needs time to cultivate, the direction is clear.
The shift from a liquidity bull to a fundamental bull essentially reflects the maturation process of the Chinese economy and capital market. What foreign institutions value is not just short-term valuation repair or improvement in the capital market, but also the long-term dividends of China's economic structure transformation, the continuous deepening of institutional reforms, and the systematic enhancement of corporate global competitiveness. This confidence based on fundamentals is the core logic for long-term capital allocation in the Chinese market.
The "14th Five-Year Plan" Sketches a New Blueprint: Foreign Investors Lock in Four Investment Sectors
The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" has become the most discussed topic at the forum. Foreign institutions attending the event generally believe that the continuity, predictability, and high completion rate of China's five-year plans provide investors with rare certainty.
Fan Xiang compared the competition in technology, especially AI, to a "military arms race": "If you don't invest, your competitors will invest, so you must invest. If you don't invest in AI, you won't have a voice, let alone the right to sit at the table and discuss it." Yan Xiaoqing analyzed from the perspective of market value: "Among the top 20 tech companies in China, only one is in the global top 20, accounting for 1.45%. Expanding to the top 40, China has 3-4 companies, accounting for just over 3%, which means there is huge room for market value growth." He specifically mentioned that China's forward-looking layout from the Yalong River Hydropower Station to the ultra-high voltage transmission network and energy storage systems provides a solid guarantee for the high energy consumption demands of the AI era.
Supply chain security is also receiving significant attention. Zhao Junjie emphasized: "China's demand for semiconductors and AI applications accounts for 1/3 to 1/4 of the global market, but supply is still mainly dependent on overseas. If domestic supply capacity improves, one day we may witness domestic companies producing leading enterprises comparable to overseas semiconductor giants." Fan Xiang added: "In the AI era, data centers and computing power consume more energy than traditional manufacturing. Secure, independent, and low-cost energy supply is a national strategic requirement."
Enterprise globalization transformation is another important sector. Zhou Lang believes: "One of the most valuable investment directions in the '14th Five-Year Plan' is how to make Chinese enterprises into global enterprises, which is deeper than the concept of 'going global.'" Zhao Junjie supports this with data: "The gross profit margin of Chinese enterprises abroad is 10%-15% higher than domestic, and the absolute value of profit margin is 3-10 times that of domestic." She also observed that the recognition of Chinese local brands in Europe has significantly increased. Shi Lei shared that Andera Management's China stock fund has conducted nearly 100 roadshows globally over the past five years, "even in difficult times, the fund shares did not experience large-scale redemptions, and instead have grown rapidly this year."
Consumption upgrading is seen as a key driver of economic transformation. Fan Xiang proposed three key points: the wealth effect makes people feel "rich"; the social security system makes people dare to spend; and the adjustment of supply and demand relations makes people "work less and consume more." Shi Lei interpreted the policy: "The Political Bureau meeting in September 2024 clearly passed a systematic promotion to enhance residents' willingness and ability to consume, creating new consumption scenarios, which is the internal solution to dealing with external uncertainties." Yan Xiaoqing supplemented from the perspective of sustainable development: "Green and low-carbon transformation is not only a social responsibility but also an ecological guarantee for Chinese enterprises to go global and gain global recognition."
Zhao Junjie summarized: "Any enterprise or government, if it wants to achieve sustainable development, the five-year plan is crucial. This institutional memory and organizational inheritance are China's unique advantage." At the end of the forum, the guests reached a consensus: the proportion of Chinese equity assets in residents' wealth is only 11%, far lower than that of developed countries; and 27% of assets are still placed in cash and fixed-income products with returns below 2%. Fan Xiang pointed out: "The world is having a big party, leaving too early after midnight would be too regrettable?" But he also reminded: "Although the party is still ongoing, the music may stop at any moment."
From the end of American Exceptionalism to the qualitative change of the Chinese capital market, from liquidity-driven to fundamental support, and then to the multi-dimensional opportunities outlined by the "14th Five-Year Plan," foreign institutions have completed their strategic re-recognition of the Chinese market. In an environment of increasing uncertainty, the Chinese market, with its clear development plan, complete industrial system, and huge growth potential, is becoming an indispensable strategic high ground for global long-term capital.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561728129513882138/
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