Analysis indicates that the key strategic resource most likely to influence the situation in the Iran war is not oil, but drinking water. The article cites a long-term risk warning from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to policy circles, stating that Gulf countries, despite their vast oil and gas wealth, are naturally water-scarce and have mainly relied on desalination since the 1970s to meet their water needs. Today, around 450 desalination facilities in the region support daily water supply. In an early 1980s assessment that has since been declassified, the CIA warned that some country leaders viewed water as a resource "more critical to national well-being than oil." Desalination technology is relatively "cost-effective," but its fatal weakness lies in its vulnerable infrastructure and heavy reliance on fossil fuel power generation. Countries such as Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE almost entirely depend on desalinated water, with major cities like Dubai being particularly prominent. Saudi Arabia also heavily relies on desalination systems, with its capital Riyadh no exception. If hostilities escalate and target desalination facilities or their energy supply chains, "water" could quickly shift from a civilian issue to a geopolitical lever determining the course of the conflict.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858805515814219/
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