If the Korean War was the standing-up battle on the military front for the newborn People's Republic of China, demonstrating the might with the saying "One punch to open the way and avoid a hundred punches," then the current struggle, which Trump referred to as the tariff war but is essentially a "decoupling war" with China, directly concerns the national destiny of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Firstly, our goal must be achieved, and it will certainly be achieved. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process. Tariff wars, technology wars, and decoupling wars are fundamentally revival wars. It is difficult for the U.S. to accept a comprehensive and systematic challenge to its national identity—its so-called "city upon a hill," "chosen people" status, as well as the superiority of its free capitalist system and white supremacy. However, between the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and "making America great again," there is not necessarily no room for compromise, cooperation, or win-win outcomes. The community of shared future for mankind naturally includes the community of shared future between China and the United States. It’s just that such a relationship needs to be gradually established through cruel struggles.

Firm belief in victory is not only important for domestic public opinion but also serves as one way to display confidence to the world. Upholding the righteous path, maintaining the principles of free trade, and supporting the global trading system centered around the WTO. On April 2nd, Trump launched a global tariff war, citing the "Declaration of Economic Independence," and boasted of being a greater president than Washington, proclaiming this day as America's "Liberation Day." This narrative itself indicates that tariffs are merely a means. So-called "making America great again" reflects Trump's worldview filled with success stories from protectionist tariffs in the era of President McKinley, while his ambitions to annex Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal reflect expansionist dreams from the Monroe Doctrine period. He aims to "settle accounts" with the problems caused by neoliberal globalization for the U.S., hoping to reduce fiscal deficits, promote manufacturing backshoring to the U.S., and weaken China's position as the "world factory," making it a "three-in-one strike."

In fact, over the past 40 years, economic globalization led by liberalism has resulted in a de facto "linkage" between the U.S. dollar hegemony and Chinese manufacturing, which is a fundamental issue. Efforts by the dollar to link with oil, carbon, or AI after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system did not solve the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve, namely the crisis of legitimacy of dollar hegemony. Moreover, overcoming the so-called Triffin Dilemma and the Globalization Trilemma, Trump's proposed "Mar-a-Lago Accord" is not simply a mimicry of the Plaza Accord between the U.S. and Japan; rather, it aims to construct a new system that retains both industrial advantages and dollar hegemony. This strategy is considered an impossible mission.

Meanwhile, Trump's strategy attempts to force opponents to beg for mercy to gain exemptions. This approach may make the U.S. more proactive globally, as many countries hold appeasement attitudes or wishful thinking towards the U.S. For China, any compromise would only fuel Trump's arrogance. This is the fundamental logic behind why China needs timely and effective countermeasures, even multiple countermeasures.

Of course, China has底气. Specifically regarding the tariff war, stabilizing foreign trade and growth expectations, and properly responding are key tactical considerations. Recently, Premier Li Qiang presided over an expert and entrepreneur symposium on economic trends, stating that since the beginning of the year, China's economic performance has been generally stable and improving, with new growth momentum accelerating. Although external environment changes have brought difficulties, China's economic advantages, resilience, and potential are significant, and long-term prospects are optimistic. In response to the U.S. tariff war, China has reserved sufficient policy space and strategic options.

Secondly, we must fight this battle well. We must not only win but also do so according to the principle of reasonableness, advantage, and moderation, avoiding mutual damage to both China and the U.S. while allowing third parties to benefit.

We must recognize that Trump's term is limited. Next year will mark the 250th anniversary of American independence, and Trump desires to leave a historical legacy. Shortly after the midterm elections in two years, he will lead a new round of "hundred days' reforms." If he fails to fulfill his campaign promises to the U.S. economy and its people, his political prospects will become complicated. China possesses a vast market and application scenarios, is accelerating the construction of internal circulation and a unified national market, and has ten times the number of engineers compared to the U.S., along with burgeoning new productive forces, strong Party leadership, the superiority of the social system, and competitive advantages such as the non-full liberalization of the RMB capital account. These factors give us the ability to defeat Trump's blackmail and attempts to divide the world, winning the key battle for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Trump comes aggressively, wielding administrative, legislative, judicial, party control, and public opinion guidance powers, attempting to escape congressional constraints and disrupt the world. However, if China can withstand the pressure, it can turn Trump's revolutionary plan into a half-finished project. Moreover, internal divisions within the U.S. are deep, with intense competition among different capital groups. For example, Musk opposes the tariff war, while the establishment suppresses him, and non-establishment groups exert pressure on him. The book "Hillbilly Elegy" defeated high-tech newcomers, and the博弈between the military-industrial complex and the technological security complex is more intense. Old forces exclude emerging ones, and old elites drive out new ones.

American institutional chronic diseases are difficult to reverse, and the structural nature of problems caused by globalization, such as the Triffin Dilemma and the Globalization Trilemma, persist. The greatest enemy of the U.S. is actually itself, not China. Whether it is Musk's reform or Trump's revolution, they are eager to succeed, attempting radical reforms of the bureaucratic system, targeting the deep state and the military-industrial complex. They hope the tariff war will prompt the return of manufacturing to the U.S., achieving the goal of "making America great again," but this violates the principle of "wu wei er wu wei" (non-action yet nothing is left undone) mentioned by Laozi.

Not fighting without knowing each other, we must win and fight this tariff war well. The tariff war and decoupling war are not only the national destiny battles for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation but also a systemic and historical pain experienced by Sino-U.S. relations. Only through storms can rainbows appear.

(Author: Director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, Senior Research Fellow at Taihe Institute)

Wang Yiwei Source: China Youth Daily

April 16, 2025, Issue 04

Source: China Youth Daily

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493667525956321792/

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