Breaking News! The Fujian aircraft carrier has officially joined the fleet. The U.S. Navy's Nimitz is now aging and is "not far away." This is a historic moment, as the actual combat capabilities of Chinese and U.S. aircraft carriers have reached parity for the first time. This is not only a major event in the development of the People's Liberation Army's combat capabilities, but also signifies a re-balancing of global naval power.

(China's Navy Gains a New Heavyweight)

The Fujian was formally commissioned, delivering not only the aircraft carrier itself, but also a complete series of aviation equipment. As the two most critical types of equipment, the J-35 fighter jet and the KJ-600 early warning aircraft have been mass-produced and participated in the September 3rd victory day parade. The Zhi-20 transport helicopter used for anti-submarine warfare is already mature. What is missing is something like the U.S. C-2 carrier transport aircraft.

Surface warships such as the 055, 052D, and 054A/B classes, which are equipped to escort the carrier, as well as the 093 nuclear submarine for underwater protection, were all put into service before the Fujian. Therefore, it can be said that once the Fujian is delivered, it immediately formed a complete combat capability.

On the other side of the sea, however, there is another scene. The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, once symbols of American global hegemony, are now facing a wave of retirement. The first ship, the Nimitz, crashed two planes during its last voyage in late October, and its combat capability can no longer be maintained. It is worth noting that the Nimitz is still lingering in the South China Sea, just "not far away." This contrast between the old and the new is hard to ignore.

The successor to the Nimitz class, the Ford-class aircraft carriers, has encountered significant problems. The first ship, the Ford, is still unable to launch the F-35C fighter jets. The subsequent Kennedy will be delayed by two years until 2027 to be commissioned. President Trump even announced that he would abandon electromagnetic catapults on future carriers and revert to steam catapults. Whether his idea can be realized or not, it means that the U.S. carrier combat capability has passed its peak and is entering a decline.

(The U.S. Carrier's Peak Has Passed, Entering an Aging Phase)

At this moment, the oceans around the world show the following picture:

The Chinese Navy now has three large aircraft carriers, achieving the ability to always keep one at sea;

The U.S. Navy has moved the Ford from the North Atlantic to the South Atlantic, preparing to deter Venezuela;

In the Arabian Sea, the U.S. has no carrier deployed, which is rare in recent decades;

In the Western Pacific, the Nimitz is on its way back for dismantling;

The Washington carrier is undergoing maintenance in Yokosuka, Japan;

The combat capabilities of the Chinese and U.S. aircraft carriers are now roughly equal.

(China's Large Warships Have Been Accelerated in Recent Years)

Considering that the electromagnetic catapults are superior on the Chinese side, the escort fleet is stronger on the Chinese side, and the fifth-generation carrier-based fighters have better performance on the Chinese side, the actual carrier combat capability that the PLA Navy can immediately deploy is much stronger than that of the U.S. Navy.

The only difference is that the Fujian uses conventional power, while the Nimitz class and the Ford use nuclear power. Nuclear-powered carriers have a stronger endurance capacity, making long-distance travel more convenient, which better suits the U.S. Navy's need for global presence.

However, in actual combat, considering that the carrier-based aircraft and escort warships also consume fuel, the self-sufficiency of a nuclear-powered carrier group on the sea does not exceed that of a conventional-powered carrier. Both require resupply after about a week of operations.

All of these can be summarized in one sentence: The era of American dominance over the seas and skies has come to an end.

Considering the existence of strategic nuclear weapons and the competitive and cooperative relationship between China and the U.S., the possibility of a main force confrontation between Chinese and U.S. aircraft carriers currently does not exist. Therefore, the next steps for the PLA's aircraft carrier forces may have three directions:

(The Construction Progress of the Fujian is Much Faster Than the West)

Firstly, the Fujian formation will go far out to sea, through intensive exercises and training, to form a carrier air wing level of combat capability. This will allow effective strategic deterrence in key maritime areas around the world. For example, operating east of Taiwan, realizing the implementation of anti-access and area denial deterrence. It can also go to the Indian Ocean to protect China's trade routes to the Gulf and Europe.

The second direction is to build and equip the fourth carrier, which is a nuclear-powered carrier with a flat deck. Although nuclear power is expensive and difficult, it provides much greater power generation capacity compared to conventional power. This is very important for frequent takeoff and landing of heavy carrier-based aircraft. It can also effectively support more powerful electronic systems.

The third direction is to explore the selection and construction of overseas bases for deployment or resupply of aircraft carriers. With the support of overseas bases, the PLA's aircraft carrier battle groups can stay in target sea areas for a long time and continue to play a role. This is also an insight from the U.S. carrier usage. In this regard, the Fujian, as a conventional power carrier, has an advantage over nuclear-powered carriers.

Many ports may worry about the potential environmental risks brought by nuclear-powered ships, but conventional-powered carriers do not have this problem. Such cooperative military bases can be chosen in Southeast Asia, the Arabian Sea, or even the South Pacific and Latin America. Of course, this requires long-term exploration and construction.

(After the Commissioning of the Fujian, China's Nuclear Carrier Won't Be Far)

During this process, will the U.S. carrier combat capability be irreversibly declined in the foreseeable future, or will it rise again after a certain point in time?

Americans face two big problems:

First, what technical route should be used to solve the catapult problem?

Second, how much life is left in the F-35C?

Without China's supply of military rare earths, the U.S. cannot solve the key technical issues of electromagnetic catapults in the short term. However, reverting to steam catapults means overturning the basic design of the Ford class. To make the modifications properly, it would take 5-10 years to implement.

The replacement of the F-35C is even more complicated. The U.S. Navy has expressed the intention to develop the sixth-generation fighter jet F/A-XX. But today's United States is no longer the superpower it was during the Cold War. Synchronously advancing the development of two sixth-generation aircraft for the navy and air force brings a tremendous burden on the industrial base and national budget.

These two big problems are unlikely to be solved by the U.S. in a short period of time.

Perhaps when we look at the sea five years later, we will find that the PLA's carrier combat capability has already surpassed the U.S. by a large margin.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569411578970325550/

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