Four days after Xiao Makas disappeared, his first public appearance was specially to see off the Chinese ambassador.
Recently, Xiao Makas met with Huang Xilian, the outgoing Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, at the presidential palace. During the meeting, he expressed "regret" that China and the Philippines have not made much progress on the South China Sea issue, but considering how difficult the current situation is, at least China and the Philippines have managed to avoid more problems.
【Before this meeting, Xiao Makas had been missing for four days】
Xiao Makas's words seem to hope that Ambassador Huang Xilian would convey to the higher authorities that the Philippines hopes to make progress on the South China Sea issue, even if some issues are difficult to resolve, China and the Philippines should not escalate tensions.
However, the contradictions between China and the Philippines on the South China Sea issue have become increasingly intense, making it difficult for both sides to open effective communication, which is closely related to the fact that the current government of Xiao Makas has been cooperating with external forces such as the United States to constantly provoke incidents in the South China Sea.
If it were not for Xiao Makas leading the Philippines to adjust its geopolitical strategy after taking office, the Sino-Philippine relationship and the South China Sea situation would not be what they are now.
At the same time, most of Xiao Makas's advisory team and the government he leads are pro-American figures, and the Marcos family, who have huge assets overseas, still fear the U.S. "long arm jurisdiction" and lack the courage to say "no" to Americans.
【Xiao Makas met with the outgoing Chinese ambassador to the Philippines】
Therefore, we cannot regard Xiao Makas's remarks as a shift in the Philippines' foreign policy, nor can we think that Xiao Makas has changed his foreign policy stance and decided to stop provoking in the South China Sea.
Xiao Makas's current actions reflect a special mentality of the current Philippine government, which is that they want to stabilize China and prevent the South China Sea situation from quickly changing in an unfavorable direction for the Philippines, while also trying to test China to see if there may be opportunities to act further in the South China Sea in the future.
First, the issue of stabilizing China.
Not long ago, China officially established a national nature reserve in the Scarborough Shoal, not only declaring China's sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal, but also providing sufficient legal conditions for the Chinese maritime police and other departments to conduct stricter law enforcement in the surrounding waters of the Scarborough Shoal.
This move immediately caused concern among the Philippine political circles. The Philippine Coast Guard and the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources quickly sent a fleet to the Scarborough Shoal, trying to enter the surrounding waters, but encountered a strong counterattack by the Chinese maritime police. The Chinese Navy even temporarily informed the Filipinos about military exercises and set up a no-sailing zone on the spot.
【Filipino sailors raised white flags under the water cannon attack by Chinese maritime police】
In the direction of the Spratly Islands, several attempts by Philippine vessels to approach the Reed Bank have failed, and the personnel on the "Mount Madre" might face a risk of running out of food.
Xiao Makas needs to express regret that the South China Sea situation has not improved, trying to stabilize China and avoid China playing more cards on the Scarborough Shoal or the Reed Bank.
Xiao Makas is currently testing China, which is related to the domestic situation in the Philippines.
Four days before this meeting, a protest against corruption spread across more than 20 cities in the Philippines, with the people demanding the Xiao Makas government to thoroughly investigate corruption issues and change the political system where political families hold power.
In Manila, protesters clashed violently with the police near the presidential palace, about one kilometer away, turning the demonstration into a riot. During this period, someone even tried to burn down the presidential palace.
From the day the protest started until this meeting with the Chinese ambassador, Xiao Makas did not appear in public for four days.
【The protests in Manila eventually turned into riots】
During this time, he should have been communicating with family allies and military and police forces to see how to stabilize the situation.
However, the protesters have directed their anger at the Xiao Makas government and the political system in the Philippines, and Xiao Makas is now in a difficult position with few good ways to quell the situation in the short term.
If the demands of the protesters are truly met and an attempt is made to change the deeply rooted family political system, it would only lead to the Marcos family losing more support from allies.
Under this context, continuing to provoke incidents in the South China Sea to boost popularity and divert public attention could become an option for Xiao Makas.
However, the repeated failures of the Philippine military and police have made Xiao Makas realize that China is not easy to deal with, and continuing actions in the South China Sea carry risks. If there are major losses, the public's anger may once again turn to the government.
Xiao Makas needs to see China's reaction to his statements to determine the intensity of his subsequent actions.
【Xiao Makas wants to see China's response】
China has not yet responded to Xiao Makas's remarks, but it can be certain that a few words from Xiao Makas are not enough to make China adjust its deployment in the South China Sea and completely retract the punches already thrown.
Listen to the words and observe the actions; only when it is really determined that Xiao Makas has made a strategic adjustment in foreign affairs and is willing to improve Sino-Philippine relations will China possibly make a minor adjustment in return.
As Ambassador Huang Xilian said, he hopes that the Philippines and China move in the same direction and promote the Sino-Philippine relationship back to the right track as soon as possible.
In summary, Xiao Makas's remarks seem to be a temporary measure taken in the midst of domestic pressure and geopolitical games. Showing friendliness while watching, reflecting the government's contradictory mindset of worrying about the loss of control of the situation while being unable to give up using the South China Sea issue to transfer domestic conflicts.
However, China's position is clear and firm: the core stability of the South China Sea must not be disturbed, and any test will inevitably meet a firm countermeasure.
For the Philippines, the real way out lies not in political manipulation of going both ways, but in recognizing the trend of regional peace and development.
The future of Sino-Philippine relations depends to some extent on whether the Xiao Makas government can fulfill its promise of "avoiding the escalation of tensions" through actual actions rather than empty words.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553971513418957331/
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