The core contradiction in AI infrastructure construction is shifting: from a simple pursuit of GPU quantity to a competition for power supply speed. In the context where "Time-to-Power" has become the most severe bottleneck in AI construction, Chinese power solution providers with fast delivery capabilities and large-scale production advantages are now facing a historic opportunity for value re-evaluation.
According to Zhuifeng Trading Desk, the research report by Jacqueline Du's team at Goldman Sachs released on the 14th stated that the average lifespan of power grids in the US and EU has reached 35 to 40 years. Faced with the explosive energy consumption demand of AI data centers (AIDC), infrastructure has become increasingly fragile. Currently, the local power equipment capacity in the US can only meet about 40% of the demand, and the grid connection waiting time has been extended to nearly five years. This supply-demand mismatch has forced US utility companies and data center operators to break traditional conventions and begin accepting non-traditional suppliers to fill this long-standing supply gap.
This structural shortage is reshaping the pricing power of the supply chain. Goldman Sachs emphasized in its report that for qualified Chinese suppliers, their competitive advantage is no longer merely low cost but shorter delivery cycles. Under the pressure of severe shortages, Chinese companies enjoy significant price premiums for products sold overseas compared to domestic sales, with the premium ranging between 10% and 80%, providing these companies with high visibility in profitability.
Based on this, Goldman Sachs has expanded its coverage of the AIDC power supply chain, focusing on companies that can solve the "power delivery" bottleneck. Goldman Sachs provided clear preference rankings for product categories related to China's power supply: Gas turbine blades > Power transformers > Electrical components > Uninterruptible power supply/power racks > Liquid cooling systems > Server power supplies. The firm believes that Chinese companies with advanced high-voltage direct current (HVDC) expertise, high-density power conversion capabilities, and mature OEM/ODM relationships will leverage this overflow demand to achieve rapid expansion.
American Power Bottleneck: Supply Gap Continues Until 2030
American data center power demand is experiencing explosive growth. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2030, the power consumption of American data centers (including both AI and non-AI) will increase by approximately 175% compared to 2023, contributing about 120 basis points to the overall power demand and driving an annual growth rate of 2.6%.
The power supply shortage is particularly severe in the US. According to Goldman Sachs data, during 2025-2030, the summer peak effective reserve power capacity in the US is expected to further decline, while China's reserve capacity is expected to rise. Even if local power transformer suppliers complete their announced capacity expansion plans, they will only be able to meet about 40% of local demand by 2027.
In the power generation sector, gas turbines have become the bottleneck within the bottleneck. Goldman Sachs pointed out that about 60% of the power for AI data centers is expected to come from natural gas due to its fast construction speed, stable output, low carbon emissions, and ability to generate electricity on-site, bypassing grid restrictions. Orders for major gas turbine manufacturers such as Siemens Energy, General Electric, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have accumulated to 4.5-5 years, with Siemens Energy explicitly stating that its gas turbine capacity has been sold out until 2028.
In the transmission and distribution segment, power transformers face the most urgent supply shortage. Siemens Energy predicts that the transformer shortage rate in the EU and the US will be around 30% in 2025, and it is expected to ease to about 10% by 2030. Due to the need for each transformer to be customized according to unique impedance, cooling, tap switch, overload, and seismic standards, the production process is labor-intensive and lengthy.
39% CAGR: 800V DC Architecture Brings a Technology Upgrade Cycle
Goldman Sachs estimates that between 2025 and 2030, the total addressable market for AI data center power products will expand at an approximate 39% compound annual growth rate, covering seven product categories: gas turbines, power transformers, uninterruptible power supply systems, server power supplies, electrical components, liquid cooling systems, etc.
This growth is driven by three factors: ongoing capacity construction, continuously increasing power density, and the transition from AC to DC architecture. As AI rack power increases from 100kW to higher levels, even approaching 1MW, engineering complexity has risen comprehensively in rectification, protection, heat dissipation, and energy storage integration, creating a larger value pool for DC-ready components and grid-connected assets.
The 800V DC distribution architecture is becoming the standard configuration for most new AI data center greenfield projects, with some pilot projects already exploring around 800V DC bus lines. Goldman Sachs noted that compared to traditional AC topologies, using higher voltage DC distribution can save about 5-15% in energy consumption at the facility level. NVIDIA and other key vendors have fully committed to the 800V DC architecture roadmap, and major ecosystem participants are aligning their product roadmaps toward DC-ready power conversion, protection, and battery energy storage system integrations.
This architecture upgrade creates structural opportunities for DC power infrastructure component suppliers. Goldman Sachs specifically highlighted Hongfa Co. in the high-voltage DC relay segment and Jianghai Co. in the capacitor segment, believing that existing AI data center-related orders have directly boosted their core businesses; as the duration demand increases, product portfolios should shift toward higher specification high-voltage DC relays and super capacitors (with double-layer capacitors leading the growth, followed by lithium-ion capacitors).
Delivery Speed Determines Victory: Core Competitiveness of Chinese Suppliers
Goldman Sachs' analysis of eight key product categories shows that for qualified Chinese suppliers capable of capturing overflow demand, the decisive competitive advantage is not only lower costs but more importantly, shorter delivery cycles.
Facing wait times of 3-5 years for critical components, data center operators and utility companies have made delivery speed the primary decision factor, which is enough to surpass preferences for historical suppliers. Although global service capabilities still face challenges, in the current environment of limited supply, the value proposition of fast delivery combined with acceptable quality has strong persuasiveness.
Taking power transformers as an example, Siyuan Electric's short delivery cycle enables it to gain market share in the US market. Goldman Sachs expects that the US market revenue will account for 26% of Siyuan Electric's overseas revenue in 2026, rising to 28% in 2028. Goldman Sachs noted that only a few Chinese enterprises can combine high-quality performance with long-term commitments, navigating the market through rigorous certification processes, continuous upfront investments, and proven records of overseas performance, and Siyuan Electric has performed well in these areas.
In the gas turbine blade segment, Yingleite, as a leading domestic manufacturer of high-end precision castings, currently holds less than 1% of the global market share, leaving ample room for growth. The company has signed long-term agreements with Baker Hughes, Ansaldo, and General Electric. Goldman Sachs believes that Yingleite will benefit from the gas turbine supply shortage, achieving growth as a supplementary supplier.
Pricing Power Emerges: Overseas Orders Enjoy 10%-80% Gross Margin Premiums
Due to severe supply shortages, Chinese suppliers can obtain significant price premiums of 10%-80% in overseas markets compared to domestic sales. Goldman Sachs pointed out that although production remains concentrated in China to maintain key delivery cycle advantages, even considering the rising costs of tariffs and logistics, the final profit margin improvements remain significant.
This opportunity is not widespread, but rather concentrated among a few top Chinese industrial enterprises with scale, quality control, and the ability to serve international customers. Taking power transformers as an example, Siyuan Electric's products sold in the US have a gross margin of about 45%, while domestic sales have a gross margin of about 30%; Hua Ming Electric's overseas sales have a gross margin of about 40%, while domestic sales have a gross margin of about 25%.
In the uninterruptible power supply system segment, Kostal's overseas ODM model enjoys a pricing premium of 25-50% compared to domestic megascale customer orders. Goldman Sachs expects that Kostal's overseas high-power electrical system sales will surge from 100 million yuan (2% of total revenue) in 2025 to 800 million yuan in 2026 and 1.782 billion yuan in 2028 (11% and 15% of total revenue respectively), mainly driven by orders executed for European regional clients serving US end-users.
Goldman Sachs calculations show that for companies exposed to the US market, the average sales compound growth rate between 2025 and 2030 can reach 23%, while without considering the US market, it is 17%. By 2030, the revenue contribution from the overseas AI data center market (mainly the US) for these Chinese companies is expected to average 23%, and the global market share is expected to average 4%.
Product Priority Ranking: Gas Turbine Blades > Power Transformers > Electrical Components
Goldman Sachs gave a clear preference ranking for product categories related to China's power supply: Gas turbine blades > Power transformers > Electrical components > Uninterruptible power supply/power racks > Liquid cooling systems > Server power supplies.
Gas turbine blades rank highest due to their extremely high material science and manufacturing barriers—especially single-crystal high-temperature section technology—and severely limited global effective capacity. Power transformers follow closely, benefiting from labor-intensive manufacturing and long certification cycles. Electrical components benefit from strong demand visibility and broad exposure to AI and grid infrastructure construction, but due to easier scalability in manufacturing, they have relatively smaller structural advantages in delivery cycles or differentiation.
Uninterruptible power supply/power rack systems benefit from differentiated ODM business models, allowing companies like Kostal to enter the US market. Liquid cooling systems also enjoy structural growth, as power density increases, their quantity and content value are also increasing, but they face relatively fierce global competition. Server power supplies rank lowest because product/scale gaps are still significant compared to global peers, and technological rapid iteration brings uncertainty of technological disruption.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/7595093278928814646/
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