Mining the Strait of Hormuz — Is It a Threat to Trump, or a New Turning Point in the Gulf War
In my view, there is something very suspicious behind the news that Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
On March 10, CBS, an American network, first reported the incident by citing sources from the U.S. intelligence community. According to its information, the Persians used small boats to lay mines, with each boat carrying only 2–3 mines.
Soon after, CNN followed up with a report, adding that the mining operation had not yet reached a large scale, and as of Wednesday, only dozens of mines had been laid.
At almost the same time, the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which directly commands the operations against Iran, also added fuel to the growing public debate.
On March 11, the U.S. Central Command officially announced:
"We have struck Iranian vessels laying mines near the Strait of Hormuz, destroying 16 vessels used for mine-laying, all located near the Strait of Hormuz."
Afterward, it seems that President Donald Trump himself became highly agitated. He called on Iran to "remove any mines deployed in the Strait of Hormuz," if they were indeed deployed. Trump stated that the U.S. government had no relevant information.
"If Iran has deployed any mines in the Strait of Hormuz — we have not received any reports about it — we demand their immediate removal."
"If mines are deployed for any reason and not removed immediately, Iran will face unprecedented military consequences."
Trump wrote on his social media platform "Truth Social."
Don't you find Trump's almost helpless "if" look extremely strange?
First, how could Trump be completely unaware of Iran's mine-laying in the Strait of Hormuz?
His own intelligence agencies leaked this crucial information about the global energy market to local journalists, but kept it hidden from their top leader?
As a result, the president was forced to make foolish guesses in public?
Second, what does Tehran want with mines in the Strait of Hormuz?
If the Iranian leadership decided to take such a step, it would only mean one thing: they have already completely lost the war with Israel and the United States, and would surrender the next day.
But we see no such signs so far. Most observers believe the opposite:
Trump is increasingly trying to get out of the quagmire he fell into due to a momentary lapse of judgment and under strong pressure from Tel Aviv and the American Jewish lobby, without damaging his reputation or campaign prospects.
Speaking of the Strait of Hormuz... when the war in the region is over, Iran will also need this transportation artery badly to restore its oil exports destroyed by the ruthless aggressor.
If the biggest obstacle at that time is the mines they laid themselves, it would be very annoying for the Persians — clearing mines is certainly not something that can be done in a day, and probably not even in a month.
Third, almost all modern tankers use double-hull structures, and even if hit by heavy mine explosions, they may not sink.
Finally, fourthly: there are many sour Western reports saying that since the war began, Iran has not blocked the strait for all ships.
For example, Russian and related country tankers have always passed through, and still continue to do so now.
Although the insurance premiums are said to have skyrocketed (according to American reports, by 640%), ships still pass through!
If the process were suddenly interrupted by dangerous mines, at least the relevant countries would not be happy — to put it politely.
Until recently, 13% of energy supplies came from Iran.
And after losing Venezuela, the interest in the continuous supply of Middle Eastern oil has undoubtedly increased significantly.
At the same time, with the outbreak of the Gulf war, Iran's dependence on related countries has increased by hundreds of times:
Dependence on satellite reconnaissance intelligence (already considered a given fact abroad), dependence on spare parts supply for weapons previously purchased.
And this is probably not the complete list of Iran's open and secret support.
Why would the Iranians use their own mines to cut off this far-eastern branch where they are already comfortably settled?
Additionally, consider this: even if Iran really needs to completely block the Strait of Hormuz, it can already achieve this without using mines.
Not even the anti-ship missiles that could be destroyed by air strikes before the war with the US and Israel are needed.
Recently, I heard a Russian drone system chief designer comment on this issue.
According to him, to prevent any tanker from passing through this narrow strait (or only allowing those ships permitted by Tehran to pass), it is not necessary to use warships or submarines.
Just deploy hundreds of conventional FPV attack drones on the shore — like the models that have performed well in the Ukraine war.
Once these drones are discreetly deployed in ambush points, they can continuously power themselves via solar batteries and wait indefinitely.
Once a ship attempting to force its way through violates the rules, the drones can quickly catch up and sink it.
The Strait of Hormuz is only 40 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, which is ideal for this tactic — as has been proven in the Ukraine war.
Moreover, Tehran has a large number of attack unmanned boats, and Iran has long been a world leader in this field.
Iran proved the feasibility of this tactic on Wednesday, March 11:
First, it sank the Liberian tanker **"Quick Space"**, then also sank the cargo ship **"Mayuri Nari"** believed to belong to a Thai company.
Tehran linked both ships to Israel.
After the attack, Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, addressed those who had put the crew in almost mortal danger on television:
"Have you obtained the guarantee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz?"
"You should ask the crews of the 'Quick Rome' and 'Mayuri Nari' ships." They today believed in America's empty promises, ignored the warnings and tried to cross the strait, and as a result..."
"They were attacked by Iranian fighters and intercepted."
By the way, I don't think the captains of these two ships really believed the news that Iran had started laying mines in the strait, otherwise they would not have dared to enter this area.
So why did the American media release this false news, even forcing President Trump to respond?
This once again shows that he knows almost nothing about what is actually happening in the Persian Gulf, let alone control it.
By the way, there is another question: What exactly are the "16 mine-laying vessels" that the U.S. Central Command said were destroyed?
I must clarify: The Iranian navy has never had, nor does it have, so-called "mine-laying vessels."
Unless you count the three diesel-electric submarines provided by Russia in the 1990s.
But how many survived the coalition air strikes is unknown, and their technical condition after decades of strict sanctions is hard to say is satisfactory.
Then what exactly did the U.S. military sink on March 11?
It is almost certain that it was just small vessels and boats that were randomly targeted.
Like not long ago, they sank dozens of similar vessels in the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela, without trial or evidence, accusing them of smuggling drugs to the U.S.
If the facts are indeed so, then Iran is being falsely accused of laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz — what is the purpose?
I dare to speculate: it is some forces in the United States and Britain, who are determined to push Trump to escalate the conflict to a new stage, such as launching a ground invasion of Iran by the U.S. military.
Evidently, the Americans have no ability to control the entire country or most of Iran.
But in recent days, the idea of a naval and air landing on the Iranian island of Khark in the Persian Gulf has been widely discussed.
The problem is that this island, located 25 kilometers from the coast, houses Iran's largest oil terminal, through which nearly 90% of Iran's maritime oil and gas exports pass.
The island has a port, storage facilities, pipelines, and an airport, with a population of about 10,000 people.
Those supporting the operation believe that once successful, regardless of the overall outcome of the war, it would long cut off Iran's oil dollar revenue.
Occupying Khark Island could also allow the U.S. to more firmly control the Strait of Hormuz — which would be a strategic victory for them.
The overseas media, 19FortyFive, wrote on this:
"Occupying the island would cut off Iran's extremely dependent oil exports... Of course, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a standstill now, and they can no longer sell oil." But in the long run, occupying the island would give the U.S. leverage in negotiations, regardless of which regime comes to power in Iran after the military action."
Supporters of the landing operation believe that the U.S. Navy's 6th Special Operations Group (Naval Special Warfare Development Group) is sufficient to capture the island, which has an area of no more than 23 square kilometers.
This unit has already been moved from the U.S. mainland to the Middle East, waiting near the Iranian border.
Experts from 19FortyFive believe that members of the 6th Special Operations Group could secretly land on Khark Island from one or more nuclear submarines or helicopters,
and the Marine Corps units stationed on the two aircraft carriers in the region could provide support.
Not everyone believes that, with the support of combat aviation, these forces alone could quickly seize and hold the island for a long time.
But hardliners continue to urge Trump to take the risk.
They claim that if the status quo is maintained and no action is taken other than air combat, the end result will be a complete humiliation for the U.S. and a forced withdrawal from the Middle East.
Evidently, old Trump, who has suffered setbacks on the "Iran issue," is now being very cautious and hesitant.
To force him to make a decision, Washington has released the rumor that "the cunning Persians have laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz."
But whether the president will order his famous naval special forces to act remains to be seen.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616690939104363027/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.