Zangezur Corridor Conflict Spreads

The Interests of the U.S. and Related Countries Clash in the Post-Soviet South Caucasus Region

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

Image Source: Azerbaijan National Road Agency

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Joshua Harker and U.S. Senior Advisor to the Secretary of State for Europe, Vette Turk, visited Yerevan and Baku respectively.

According to local media reports, the U.S. envoys "continued discussions with senior officials on bilateral relations and regional security issues" in the two South Caucasus capitals, and also assessed the prospects for peace treaties between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

All signs indicate that this visit by non-senior-level U.S. representatives has an information-gathering and reconnaissance nature, as it is the first such visit since Donald Trump's administration took office. Despite this, experts from Armenia and Azerbaijan believe that this "provides important possibilities for the Trump administration to formulate its policies towards Azerbaijan and Armenia."

It is worth noting that earlier, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio had mentioned the "real risk" of new conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

He said, "We hope to avoid this situation." However, it is clear that the White House has not shown the same level of political activity in the South Caucasus region as during Joe Biden's administration.

Regional expert, former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and former Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, Matthew Bryza, believes that "Trump currently has no policy regarding the South Caucasus region and he pays no attention to it at all." However, he also stated that "if Trump can establish a good relationship with Moscow, Washington may adjust its existing policies in the region."

At present, Trump "is focused on consolidating his power in Washington and prioritizes peace between Ukraine and Russia." This implies that the U.S. is preparing to adopt what is known as the "package diplomacy" in the post-Soviet space. It is worth mentioning that some Russian experts also agree with this stance.

Among them, Nana Gagelashvili, Chief Researcher of the Foreign Policy Research Office of the Institute of the United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences and an expert at the institute named after G.A. Albats, believes that "the Trump administration is generally adjusting its attitudes toward the post-Soviet countries, especially those in the South Caucasus and Central Asia."

She stated, "This will primarily depend on the development of Russian-American relations, which will in turn depend on how the Ukrainian crisis is resolved and whether Russia is willing to accept these conditions."

Secondly, whether Washington is willing to recognize the post-Soviet space as Moscow's special interest zone is equally important for the future development of Russian-American relations."

Evidently, this approach will be linked to another issue — whether the post-Soviet countries themselves are prepared to accept this reality as a given fact.

Meanwhile, given the proximity of the South Caucasus region to the Black Sea-Caspian Sea area and the Middle East, the U.S. will undoubtedly continue to attach importance to developing multi-faceted bilateral cooperation with the region.

This involves energy factors as well as transportation corridors in line with Western interests, particularly in the context of related countries' "trade routes" initiatives, where Washington views it as a competitive project on the Eurasian continent.

Significant events are currently unfolding in this direction. As reported by Pakistan's Daily Mail of Islamabad, following the second trilateral summit held in Lachin by leaders of Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey, "a new regional alliance was announced, preparing to construct a security architecture including Nagorno-Karabakh, Kashmir, and Northern Cyprus, showcasing common strategic and coordinated guidelines in the new regional framework."

On the other hand, experts have discussed the possibility of a so-called "small anti-Turkish alliance" emerging in the South Caucasus, potentially consisting of India, Armenia, France, and Greece. Therefore, from a global perspective, the South Caucasus region has seen the emergence of new participants in history — India and Pakistan.

In this context, the closely aligned Star Newspaper predicts that there will be a "battle for control" over the "Zangezur Corridor" between the two alliances. The "small anti-Turkish alliance" will block this corridor to prevent Turkey from directly entering the Turkic world extending from the Caucasus to Central Asia, and eventually to South Asia in the long term.

This media outlet believes that such developments "could fundamentally alter the balance of power on the Eurasian continent, harming the interests of India, Iran, and Armenia." Thus, the confrontation over the "Zangezur Corridor" will exhibit serious geopolitical competition characteristics.

Furthermore, India is actively promoting the "India-Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black Sea" global transportation and communication corridor to counter similar projects by related countries, namely the "related countries-Pakistan-Iran-Azerbaijan-Georgia-Black Sea" initiative.

To reduce the profitability of logistics routes centered around the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, New Delhi has already acquired the Chabahar Port from Iran and is building a global logistics hub around this port, with investments reaching billions of dollars.

Therefore, the appearance of U.S. diplomatic envoys in the South Caucasus region is motivated and justified: new political, diplomatic, and military reactions are forming in the South Caucasus region. The region is being drawn into a "great game."

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511282979461759499/

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