[Military Next Dimension] Author: Lele

On May 2nd, the Global Times cited local information, reporting that the Chinese Air Force contingent participating in the military exercise in Egypt flew over the Giza Pyramids alongside the Egyptian MiG-29M squadron. Given the impressive performance of the J-10CE and PL-15E combination in South Asia, the probability of Egypt's air force ordering the J-10CE and even transitioning to the combat system of AVIC is indeed increasing.

▲The state of the Sino-Egyptian joint squadron invites speculation

The joint squadron appearing above the Giza Pyramids was led by a Y-20A tanker aircraft, followed by four J-10C/S fighters and four MiG-29Ms in front, with an KJ-500 early warning aircraft leading two MiG-29s behind, appearing very harmonious. This has sparked associations with "Egypt planning to purchase the J-10CE and KJ-500E, Y-20BE, and team up with the MiG-29M for operations" - this indeed makes sense.

▲The lack of an early warning aircraft to command more than 40 MiG-20Ms is indeed a problem for Egypt

After years of effort, Egypt's air force now equips more than 300 fourth-generation fighters, but their actual combat capability falls far short of such a scale. The main reasons are threefold: First, there is a lack of advanced auxiliary aircraft. Corresponding to more than 300 main fighter jets, Egypt currently only has 7 E-2C early warning aircraft (upgraded to the "Eagle Eye-2000" technical standard), with zero numbers of specialized electronic warfare aircraft and aerial refueling aircraft. Second, there is a lack of advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles; theoretically, the strongest one in hand is still the Russian R-77-1, with a maximum range barely exceeding 100 kilometers, poor guidance head accuracy, and weak anti-interference capabilities. Third, the sources of fighter jets are complex, with American, European, and French systems intertwined, wasting a lot of resources.

▲"Eagle Eye-2000" belongs to the second-generation late-model early warning aircraft

Interestingly, India's air force is currently in a situation similar to Egypt's air force. The latter also equips more than 300 fourth-generation fighters and faces the problem of complex equipment supply channels, though the overall environment is slightly better—Su-30MKI is a heavy fighter, the procurement of European "Meteor" was not interfered with by the U.S., and currently, India does not equip any American fighters, relying solely on Russian and French channels. However, even under these conditions, India remains clearly at a disadvantage when facing Pakistan's ZDK-03, J-10CE, and PL-15E combination (otherwise, there would have been no need to dismiss senior air force officers after the patrol of four "Rafale" fighters was forced to stop). The impact on Egypt's air force can be imagined.

▲India's "Rafale" is equipped with "Meteor"

In addition, Egypt is not only close to the J-10CE and PL-15E, but also within reach of a much stronger upgrade system. Pakistan's ZDK-03 was purchased more than ten years ago, and although it underwent upgrades last year, its inherent shortcomings make it difficult to surpass the third-generation early warning aircraft threshold, making it actually inferior to the third-generation export model KJ-500E. Strictly speaking, the Y-20BE has not yet been publicly displayed, but the Y-20BE has indeed appeared at the Abu Dhabi Defense Exhibition (and the KJ-500E made its debut at the Moscow Defense Exhibition). Most importantly, the effect of this combination with PL-15E-equipped J-10CE has already been experienced by Egypt during the joint military exercises.

▲KJ-500 is a proper third-generation early warning aircraft

Therefore, the current situation is that AVIC's combat system centered on the J-10CE has been fully demonstrated in Egypt, passed the test of the India-Pakistan standoff, and export permits are also available without issue, all within reach. If Egypt is really planning to comprehensively purchase, then the complexity of this military exercise, along with the deep integration of the MiG-29M squadron and Chinese aircraft, has a reasonable explanation—it is finding a way out for more than 40 MiG-29Ms. Pakistan's experience has already proven that as long as the seller supports it, using an early warning aircraft to command fighters from different sources is technically feasible, though it may not be as intimate as with same-source equipment.

▲The export of J-10CE now seems to be out of doubt

With modern aerial combat increasingly requiring deeper system construction, the efficiency of the previous model of purchasing fighters from multiple sources is becoming lower. Even a country like India is struggling to maintain two operational systems. For Egypt, taking all three paths at once is definitely not feasible. Either submit to the West and continue with the pseudo-diversification where "after the U.S. intervenes, Europe dares not even provide medium-range air-to-air missiles," or show boldness and shift to a temporary reliance on both the U.S. and France while leaning toward China and Russia, essentially forming a new era centered on the U.S. and China.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499789235256410676/

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