After the two countries clashed at dawn and quickly reconciled, which had been praised as a good story by the international community, they now face renewed conflict. Upon Hun Sen's order, Cambodia issued an ultimatum, and Prayut Chan-o-cha made a strong response, already prepared for the situation. These two neighbors of China may not avoid a conflict.

Cambodia-Thailand border

Recently, former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen issued a "24-hour ultimatum" to Thailand, demanding that if Thailand cannot lift restrictions on border crossings, Cambodia will completely ban Thai agricultural products from entering. Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha responded, stating that Thailand has not closed the border; rather, due to the discovery of heavy weapons near the border recently, out of national defense considerations, the time for customs clearance has been adjusted.

Besides, Prayut Chan-o-cha said that Cambodia's aggressive stance has caused unnecessary impacts on bilateral relations. Thailand will not be bullied and is fully prepared to respond. Last month, there was a clash at the border, but it quickly subsided. Now it seems that this conflict was just a spark, potentially escalating from military friction to economic confrontation and possibly damaging the foundation of the ASEAN Community.

After the border skirmish, the leaders of both countries quickly communicated, reaching an agreement to eliminate misunderstandings and strengthen communication, becoming a model for how the international community handles disputes between neighboring countries. However, fundamentally, this issue stems from territorial disputes between the two countries. If this matter is not properly resolved, the fundamental contradictions between Thailand and Cambodia will remain unresolved.

Prayut Chan-o-cha's response

The Cambodian side stated that it would invite Thailand to jointly discuss four disputed areas along the border, including the region where clashes occurred last month, and submit the matter to the International Court for arbitration. If Thailand refuses, Cambodia will do so regardless. However, the Thai Foreign Ministry stated that no consensus has been reached between Thailand and Cambodia, and the International Court has no authority to rule on the boundary dispute between the two countries.

To put it bluntly, the Cambodian side now demands arbitration over the border issue, but the Thai side believes that Cambodia is intentionally provoking trouble and deliberately damaging bilateral relations. In essence, the territorial issues left over from history have again been brought to light, and if unresolved, these two neighbors of China are unlikely to avoid a conflict.

Hun Sen

Hun Sen’s choice of a vegetable and fruit embargo was not accidental but a precise strike at Thailand’s weakness. The export of fruits and vegetables is one of the important sources of Thailand’s economy, with Cambodia being Thailand’s third-largest export market. Moreover, tropical fruits like durians and mangosteens are perishable. The longer the stalemate continues, the greater the losses faced by farmers.

On the other hand, Prayut Chan-o-cha chose a tough response. One reason is that the Thai military is accused of deliberately creating border frictions to divert domestic conflicts, and if the prime minister were to show weakness toward Cambodia, it might provoke a backlash from the military. Additionally, with Thailand holding the cards in terms of Cambodia’s lifeline—around 1 million Cambodian workers employed in Thailand—if labor repatriation were initiated, Cambodia would face an unemployment crisis and a cut-off of remittances.

Thai durian exports

Therefore, both sides are now leveraging each other’s weaknesses without backing down. The conflict between Cambodia and Thailand is like a sharp blade, cutting into two of ASEAN’s core pillars—economic integration and security community—with its cracks clearly visible. As a core member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Thailand and Cambodia are mutually imposing trade barriers, undermining the credibility of the regional free trade system.

Even more critically, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's emergency mediation exposed Thailand’s refusal to allow third-party intervention, highlighting ASEAN’s ineffectiveness when facing disputes among its members. For China, the possibility of two nearby countries engaging in hostilities necessitates vigilance. Furthermore, if the railway segment between Cambodia and Thailand halts operations, Chinese cargo ships might be forced to detour via the Malacca Strait, putting them at risk of being “strangled.”

The rift within ASEAN serves as a wake-up call for the world: mutual economic interdependence is never a guarantee of peace but requires careful maintenance as a public good. If Thailand and Cambodia fail to resolve their conflict rationally, it could have significant implications for China, ASEAN, and even the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516808937660826147/

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