Trump is further away from the Nobel Peace Prize.

On the local time of November 12, Ukraine's First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhiy Kyslytsya announced that due to the lack of substantial progress in the recent rounds of negotiations, Ukraine will suspend peace talks with Russia at least until the end of this year.

Although this is not the first time that the Ukraine-Russia negotiations have been suspended, it may be the most symbolic one.

The decision by Ukraine to suspend negotiations stems from a combination of multiple factors. The most direct reason is that the negotiations have failed to break the deadlock: even setting aside the most controversial issues of territory and security mechanisms, one of Ukraine's demands is for Russia to immediately cease hostilities, i.e., to achieve a ceasefire first before discussing other details.

Ukraine and Russia held negotiations in 2022

However, Russia believes that the fundamental purpose of Ukraine's demand is to gain time to receive military aid and reorganize its army, and Kyiv cannot guarantee that it is not just stalling. Therefore, the two sides have never reached an agreement on the basic issue of ceasefire.

After Ukraine announced the suspension of negotiations with Russia, a series of chain reactions and new issues will follow.

First, the freezing of diplomatic channels will inevitably lead to further escalation of military confrontation on the battlefield. In October this year, Putin once again emphasized that the Russian military will complete all objectives of the special military operation. At the same time, Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries and other energy facilities will also expand.

Second, Ukraine's suspension of negotiations with Russia may intensify the conflict between the US and Ukraine, even angering Trump himself, because this move directly challenges his diplomatic agenda.

It should be noted that although Trump has already admitted that mediating the Ukraine conflict is "more difficult than expected," he has not given up on using the resolution of the Ukraine crisis as a "stepping stone" to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Ukraine's decision may anger Trump, but it may not

Therefore, Ukraine's sudden announcement of suspending negotiations with Russia is undoubtedly contrary to Trump's desire for a quick end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, especially in the context where Russia has rejected the ceasefire proposal of freezing the frontline. Under these circumstances, Trump has already expressed dissatisfaction with Putin.

So, at this time, Ukraine's announcement of suspending the Ukraine-Russia negotiations is likely to be seen by Trump as "obstructing peace." Previously, Trump has openly threatened that if the Ukraine-Russia negotiations make no progress, the United States will abandon the mediation efforts and turn to seeking strategic interests, such as profiting from the war.

However, we should also consider another aspect, that is, Trump consistently emphasizes the priority of American interests, and he is not willing to invest unlimited resources in the Ukraine issue. Therefore, from this perspective, Ukraine's suspension of the Ukraine-Russia negotiations may cause Trump's dissatisfaction, but it may not trigger greater impact, because Trump cares more about whether the negotiations can bring visible diplomatic results, rather than the negotiation process itself. This mindset may exacerbate his wavering stance towards Ukraine.

Europe still owes Ukraine a lot of promises that have not been fulfilled

Compared to Trump's indecisiveness, Europe's attitude towards Ukraine's suspension of negotiations is relatively contradictory, largely influenced by the national interests of various countries, rather than a unified European position.

The most prominent example is that Western European countries represented by Germany and France tend to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict, but they refuse to support any ceasefire proposals that might compromise with Russia. On the other hand, a few European countries such as Hungary and Slovakia believe that open and sincere dialogue with Russia should be conducted.

On the other hand, as the Ukraine-Russia conflict approaches 2026, although European countries are not directly involved in the war, the endless military aid to Ukraine, high energy costs, and the resulting fiscal pressure have made countries generally feel a serious "war fatigue."

If negotiations are not resumed by the end of the year, the Ukraine-Russia conflict may escalate further next year

Therefore, Ukraine's decision to suspend negotiations will undoubtedly amplify the pessimistic mood of the European public regarding the inability to end the war.

This can actually be seen as a form of indirect pressure, that is, Ukraine tries to force Europe to speed up the sanctions against Russia or increase aid to Ukraine, otherwise, as long as the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues, Europe can only sink deeper into the war quagmire along with Ukraine.



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