American aerospace and defense giants are apparently "destroying" the US military's air superiority. What is going on?
America has long been known for its strong defense industrial complex. In the top 100 global defense companies by revenue in 2023, America alone accounted for 41. However, this seemingly powerful strength has actually become a fatal weakness that the US military can no longer bear. According to a Department of Defense study from 2022, the number of major contractors dropped sharply from 51 to less than 10, forming a "cartelized" structure dominated by giants like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and RTX. Lack of competition, lack of innovation, talent shortages, and supply chain crises have made the American aerospace and defense system unable to cope with the fast pace of modern warfare, seriously threatening the US military's air superiority.
The concentration of the US defense industry is worrying. A 2024 congressional study showed that the five giants, including Boeing and Lockheed Martin, controlled most defense contracts. Cost-plus contracts and long-term modernization plans provided these companies with stable profits, but eliminated competitive pressure. John Spencer and Vincent Viola warned in The Small Wars Journal: "This is not competition, but cartelized rule." This monopoly leads to stagnation in innovation, making it difficult for the Department of Defense to integrate cutting-edge commercial technology and relying on outdated or overpriced systems. For example, the lifecycle cost of the F-35 fighter exceeds $1.7 trillion, plagued by delays and technical problems, while similar platforms of opponents cost only a fraction of that.
Research by a US think tank shows that in 2024, defense specialty companies accounted for 86% of the value of major projects in the Department of Defense, compared to just 6% in the 1990s. Budget cuts after the Cold War prompted commercial companies to exit the defense market, such as Ford Aerospace being acquired by Lockheed Martin. This trend isolates defense giants from the broader market, lacking the innovation drive from commercial competition. Cost-plus contracts encourage incremental improvements rather than disruptive innovation, leading to complex and expensive military platforms. For instance, the unit price of the US MQ-9 Reaper drone exceeds $30 million, while Chinese drones priced at $3 million can achieve similar functions. The "gold-plated" mindset of the defense industry cannot meet the needs of modern warfare for speed and scalability.
The US defense industry faces a serious talent shortage. A 2023 Rand Corporation report pointed out that there is a severe loss of engineering and technical talents in the aerospace field. High-paying tech industries have attracted a large number of young professionals, while the bureaucratic culture and slow career development paths of defense contractors have discouraged talent. Additionally, the short-term profit orientation of management has weakened long-term R&D investment. For example, design and quality control issues exposed by Boeing in the 737 MAX crisis were partly due to the reduction of experienced engineer teams. The talent shortage in the defense industry directly limits its ability to develop next-generation technologies, such as advanced radar or networked combat systems.
The isolation of the US defense supply chain has exacerbated the crisis. CSIS data shows that in 2024, the proportion of companies involved in other economic sectors in defense projects fell below 10%. A single supply chain dependent on a few suppliers is extremely vulnerable to global disruptions. For example, in 2022, the shortage of semiconductors slowed down the production of F-35 fighters.
Its competitors, on the other hand, have quickly expanded their production scale through diversified supply chains. Moreover, American defense giants are particularly reliant on foreign-sourced raw materials, such as rare earth elements, which increases their risk. Looking at other countries, they have integrated domestic manufacturing and commercial technology, creating more flexible and resilient supply chains, significantly improving production efficiency.
The decline of air superiority is central to modern warfare, and situational awareness, rapid response, and scalability are key. Due to the aforementioned issues, the US aerospace and defense system is struggling to provide advanced platforms that are affordable and rapidly deployable. For example, the E-3 Sentry early warning aircraft technology is aging, and the cost of upgrading is high, while the opponent's early warning systems have achieved higher resolution and anti-jamming capabilities. US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall once criticized the F-35 program for the contractor's monopoly over data rights, forming a "permanent monopoly," limiting the flexibility of maintenance and upgrades. This inefficiency may cause the US military to lose air superiority in high-intensity conflicts.
The monopolies, inefficiencies, talent shortages, and supply chain crises of the American aerospace and defense giants are weakening the US military's air superiority. Lack of competition stifles innovation, separation from the commercial market leads to technological backwardness, talent loss and fragile supply chains further exacerbate the problem. Future wars require speed, flexibility, and scalability, but the current state of the US defense industry is contrary to these needs. If fundamental reforms are not carried out, the United States may lose its air superiority in the next war, threatening its global military hegemony.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535348886664167975/
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