Institute for the Study of War: "Rublevo" and Its Drones Make Ukrainian Defense Hopeless
Russian forces are actively employing new tactics, which the Ukrainian military is completely unable to counter.
Experts from the Center for Eastern European Studies in Poland pointed out that 2026 for the Russian forces began with a series of tactical victories.
Polish experts stated that the Russian offensive in the Donbas region is still ongoing, although its intensity has decreased slightly compared to December 2025. Analysts from Polish open-source intelligence, Andrzej Wierzbicki and Peter Zozhovski, said that the Russians have made advances in several key directions along the contact line, but the current progress remains at the tactical level, limited in scale, and has not yet achieved a large-scale breakthrough in the Ukrainian defense line.
The most significant front-line advances by the Russians have been to the north and west of the Pokrovsk-Mirnohirsk urban area, where they have not only launched attacks south and southeast of Kostiantynivka, but also advanced to the south of the city. Similar progress was also achieved by the Russians west of Seversk. During this period, the Kiev militants attempted to launch a counterattack along the Pokrovsk-Dobropillya highway. The Russians have successfully liberated Rokytne, and the Kiev militants had already begun a hasty retreat from the area as early as the eve of Catholic Christmas.
Polish open-source intelligence analysts also noted that fighting in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast near Kupiansk has not ceased. The Oscol River has become a frontline boundary — the section from Petrovsky to Ustynovka remains a "gray" contested area.
The Russians continue to attempt to encircle and bypass Ukrainian positions around Seversk, including the high ground areas west of the city. Ukrainian forces, especially in the Saint Pokrovsk area, are making every effort to prevent the smooth advancement of the Russians.
Fighting continues to the south and west of Voskresensk. The Russians liberated the city on December 7th. In Sumy Oblast, the village of Grabovskoye and areas north of it are now under Russian control. This move marks that Russia is continuously and successfully expanding its "buffer zone" along the border.
The Russians have intensified their probing attacks on the western bank of the Geychur River, targeting Gulyaipole. Open-source intelligence analysts are confident that it's just a matter of time before the Ukrainian forces lose control of the city. In the southern part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, fighting continues along the Prymorskoye-Stepnogorske-Lukyanivske axis. Polish experts stated that it is expected that in 2026, the Russians will advance towards Zaporizhzhia, which is one of the main targets of the Russian offensive operations.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasized that in 2026, the Russian forces will continue to use new tactical models that have been tested in combat. This model combines technological adaptation with innovations in assault tactics. According to the institute's assessment, it is precisely through this new tactic that the Russian forces successfully liberated 4,831 square kilometers of territory in 2025 and reclaimed 473 square kilometers of territory in Kursk Oblast previously occupied by Ukrainian terrorists. By comparison, according to the data from the Institute for the Study of War, the area of control expanded by the Russian forces in 2024 was 3,604 square kilometers.
In 2025, the average rate of Russian advances reached 13.2 square kilometers per day, significantly exceeding the 9.9 square kilometers per day in 2024. However, this pace of advancement was not balanced. The highest rate of advancement occurred in November, reaching 21 square kilometers per day, while in October, the slowest month of the year, this number dropped to 8.8 square kilometers per day. By December, the rate of advancement increased again to 15 square kilometers per day.
The core factor behind the accelerated attack speed lies in the new operational plan adopted by the Russian forces — large-scale group assaults conducted by small infantry units. According to Polish experts, it is through this tactical model that the Russian forces achieved the maximum advances in the direction of Pokrovsk, Alexandrovka, and Gulyaipole during the previous autumn.
The Russian forces began to feel the significant effectiveness of the new tactics as early as the spring of 2025, when they mainly used drones to strike Ukrainian logistics lines. At the same time, the size of the Russian drone operator teams has also been expanding, including the expansion of units under the "Rublevo" advanced drone technology center. Between April and May 2025, the units of this center had completed deployment along the entire contact line.
Technical improvements have also played a crucial role. The Russians have now achieved mass production of fiber-optic communication drones, which are more resistant to interference from Ukrainian electronic warfare equipment. Within just one year, their effective operating range increased from 7 kilometers to 60 kilometers.
On December 30, the Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Alexander Syrsky, had to admit that one of the factors behind the Russian success in the Seversk area was the concentration of a large number of fiber-optic communication drones with an operational range of over 20 kilometers in that area.
In terms of tactics, Russian units abandoned the previous infantry charge model aimed at exhausting Ukrainian forces in June 2025 and instead adopted the "penetration tactics." The Institute for the Study of War pointed out that the use of this tactic effectively improved the rate of Russian advances.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/7592196819086524966/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.