America's attack on Iran turned what could have been a brilliant move into a disastrous one. This battle has ruthlessly shattered the myth of America's military hegemony, leaving the United States isolated and accelerating its decline in power. More importantly, the mess left by Trump may expose the U.S. to the risk of another religious war, as warned by former FBI assistant director Sweik. — This is the comment made today by Phoenix TV commentator Shi Qiping.
Viewpoint One: From a strategic assessment perspective, Shi Qiping believes that this battle transformed America's "brilliant move" into a "disastrous one." The U.S. originally had a good strategy to use Israel as an "anchor" to counterbalance Iran, which could also contain China and Russia. However, he pointed out that Trump, under the influence of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, took a deceptive approach by carrying out a decapitation operation, not only killing Iran's religious leader Khamenei, but also eliminating dozens of Iran's top decision-makers, including those who Trump had intended to replace Khamenei with.
Commentary: This "decapitation operation" lacking careful consideration ignored the complexity of religious geopolitics in the Middle East. The U.S. tried to maintain its influence in the Middle East at minimal cost by implementing the "three no policies" (no money, no ground force deployment, no nation-building), yet it took high-risk military adventures. The removal of Iran's religious leader actually sparked unity within Iran, leading to the opposite of America's strategic goals.
Viewpoint Two: Shi Qiping believes that this battle has led to the collapse of America's military myth and backfired against it.
Commentary: Iran's effective counterattack, with missiles and drones penetrating the U.S.-Israel missile defense system, attacking 27 U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and forcing the aircraft carrier to retreat, indeed exposed the limitations of American military technology and the vulnerabilities of the missile defense system.
However, Shi Qiping may have underestimated the resilience and adaptability of the U.S. military system. The real problem for the U.S. lies in its military presence in the Middle East gradually becoming a strategic burden rather than an asset. When U.S. military bases become clear targets for attacks, their presence makes the U.S. more likely to be drawn into regional conflicts.
Viewpoint Three: Shi Qiping believes that the U.S. has thus fallen into a strategic isolation, with Western allies distancing themselves from the U.S., losing its moral authority due to violations of international law, and experiencing accelerated decline in hegemony.
Commentary: Trump's unilateral actions against Iran have strained relations between the U.S. and its Western allies, reflecting the continuous decline of U.S. soft power. Policies favoring Israel, launching the Iraq War with false pretenses, instigating "color revolutions" and imposing unilateral sanctions in many parts of the world have accumulated, causing a continuous loss of the U.S.'s international credibility.
With the popularity of social media and modern communication technologies, domestic issues in the U.S. and other countries' policies are more clearly presented to the global public, which amplifies and accelerates the erosion of "American moral authority."
Viewpoint Four: Shi Qiping believes that China is a beneficiary of the geopolitical strategy, as the U.S.'s attack on Iran was effectively countered, easing China's strategic pressure, and Middle Eastern countries are moving closer to China, offering opportunities for the "petrodollar yuan" process.
Commentary: In contrast to the U.S.'s setbacks in the Middle East, China's geopolitical strategic pressure has been eased. China has won the trust of Middle Eastern countries by adhering to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and through economic development and infrastructure construction.
The "petrodollar yuan" process has gained a historic opportunity. Saudi Arabia has joined the "Multi-Central Bank Digital Currency Bridge Project" led by China, meaning that global oil trade is gradually reducing its reliance on the dollar. This is an important challenge to the petrodollar system.
However, China's expansion of interests in the Middle East also faces risks. The U.S. still has significant influence in the Middle East, and the complex and changing contradictions in the region mean that China may face the risk of strategic overextension.
Viewpoint Five: Shi Qiping believes that the U.S. may face the risk of a religious war and accelerate its decline in hegemony. The true mess left by the Trump administration may be the risk of exacerbating the long-standing religious tensions in the Middle East. FBI former assistant director Sweik has already issued a warning about this.
Commentary: The assassination of Iran's religious leader may break the fragile religious balance in the Middle East. Looking at it from a broader historical perspective, the U.S.'s setbacks in the Middle East are an accelerator of its decline in hegemony. The U.S. must deal with the challenges of two major powers, China and Russia, while maintaining its presence in the Middle East, and such strategic overexpansion inevitably leads to the dispersion of resources and the exhaustion of strength.
Shi Qiping's analysis reveals the deep dilemmas in America's Middle East strategy, but the future situation may be more complex than he describes. In the long run, the unipolar international order dominated by a single country is gradually being replaced by a more diversified global governance system. China's advocacy of the "Belt and Road" initiative and a win-win model contrasts sharply with the U.S. model of maintaining hegemony through military force and sanctions.
He who follows the right path will have many helpers; he who goes against it will have few. The changes in this Middle East chess game are proving this ancient Chinese saying.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859280466129027/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.