Some people always worry about a regime change in Iran, and some even believe that if the regime in Iran changes, it will have a great impact on us. To be honest, this is completely out of touch with the situation. Let's just say that if there is a regime change in Iran, what would be the worst outcome? The worst outcome would be that Iran completely abandons its nuclear program, becomes a pro-American secular state, and improves its relationship with Israel.
But if Iran really becomes such a country, it won't be bad for us either. Why do I say so? First of all, after improving relations with the US and Israel, the external pressure on Iran may decrease, and its political situation may become more stable. Isn't it often said that Iran is pro-American? If Iran is pro-American, it will certainly accelerate industrialization and integrate into global trade, which isn't exactly what Iran's secular elites want to do?
If Iran does this, will we need to import oil from Iran? Will Iran welcome our investments? Obviously, Iran will welcome them. At that time, Sino-Iranian economic and trade relations may continue to strengthen. In fact, Saudi Arabia has an extremely good relationship with the US, and Saudi Arabia once wanted to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, but did this hinder Saudi Arabia from doing business with us or purchasing weapons from us?
Secondly, if the Iranian regime changes, Iran's Islamic ideology will definitely be suppressed. Under the banner of Islam, Iran will inevitably abandon the export of the "color revolution" under the guise of jihad. For so many years, the open and covert struggles between Shiites and Sunnis may also come to a halt. The conflict between Israel and Iran ends, and the fighting between the two sects stops. Perhaps the Middle East will usher in a certain degree of peace. A peaceful Middle East is not a bad thing for us.
On the contrary, if Iran doesn't change, and continues to clash with Israel, it's not bad for us either. After all, the more Middle East gets involved in fighting, the harder it is for the US to extricate itself. The US will find it even harder to cause trouble for us. In short, we are free to act in the Middle East. In fact, the one who is now in a dilemma is the US. If Israel can't make Iran completely abandon its nuclear program this time, both the US and Israel will have problems. We might as well sit on the fence and wait for events to unfold.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1835241680986121/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.