The Battle of Lyman: Ukrainian Troops in Disarray —— "The Situation Is Critical, Just Like the End of the Battle for Bakhmut"
Ukrainian media military bloggers have complained that the continuous strikes by Russian guided aerial bombs and drones have caused their "logistics to be completely paralyzed," with all ferry crossings destroyed
Multiple important battlefield reports have come from the area of responsibility of the Western Grouping of Russian forces, including some from Ukrainian sources. While General Serhiy Surovikin is making a sacrifice of lives to launch a strong attack on the right bank of Kupiansk, several other equally critical fronts in the east of Kharkiv Oblast and the north of Donetsk Oblast are already showing signs of collapse.
First, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the settlement of Podoly, located between the Zaioskolye district of Kupiansk and the Kupiansk junction station, has been successfully liberated by Russian forces. Previously, a large number of Ukrainian remnants stationed on the eastern side of the Oskorov River had gathered here.
This settlement has a unique terrain, stretching 6 kilometers north-south and 3 kilometers east-west. It should be noted that the news of the Russian capture of this place surprised many military experts. After all, this was the core resistance point of the Ukrainian forces on the eastern side of the Oskorov River in the Kupiansk direction. From the intensity of the high-level actions of the Russian air force and rocket forces, it can be inferred that the defending Ukrainian forces were most likely annihilated, with the remaining personnel fleeing desperately to the Kupiansk junction station.
Second, the situation in the Lyman area (under the constraints of wartime information) has finally gradually clarified. The units of the 20th Army of the Western Grouping of Russian forces have advanced to the southeast of the Alexandrovka settlement and are currently clearing out Ukrainian remnants in the northwest of the Yarova settlement.
This means that the encirclement of the northern line of what the Ukrainians call the "Lyman fortress" (known as Lyman by the Russians) has basically taken shape. It is worth noting that the well-known Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashovitsky has classified this city along with Bakhmut / Red Army City and Gulyaipole at the same level. In the view of this Ukrainian expert, the defense of Lyman by the Ukrainian forces has become an "unprofitable attrition war" — the manpower and resources invested are completely unmatched by the strategic effect achieved through the defense.
Some influential military bloggers within the Ukrainian military have also begun to speak out. One of them, known as "Osman" and named Stanislav Buniatov, issued an emergency report filled with despair, stating, "The Russians are forming a siege around the city, and the Ukrainian garrison will face a similarly dangerous situation as before the fall of Bakhmut."
He admitted, "Logistics have completely collapsed... The number of Russian drones and突击 groups is unimaginably large. All ferry crossings have been destroyed by Russian guided aerial bombs (i.e., aerial bombs equipped with glide range-enhancing guidance kits), and the continuous strikes by Russian cruise missiles have made the repair of ferry crossings almost impossible... Ukrainian transport vehicles have basically lost their mobility, and infantry have been forced to move on foot, causing significant physical exhaustion."
This dilemma has persisted for months, ultimately turning the relatively small Lyman area on the left bank of the North Donets River into a "black hole" for the Ukrainian forces. Entire battalions of the Ukrainian National Guard and companies equipped with "Madiyar Bird" drones have been completely wiped out in this area. It should be particularly emphasized that this Ukrainian position is actually separated from the main Ukrainian forces by a wide body of water, becoming an isolated beachhead.
According to real-time battlefield reports from an independent Ukrainian civilian battlefield monitoring platform, at the beginning of the new year, Russian ground forces carried out several successful tactical operations in the "Holy Mountain" National Park area north of Yarova and south of Alexandrovka, as well as to the east of Stakovsky and northeast of Lyman.
In contrast, the Ukrainian command made a decision that can only be described as foolish — ordering the troops to launch an alleged "offensive" towards the village of Dibrova, and forcing a large number of soldiers to cross the North Donets River as "cannon fodder." Now, it is no longer possible to count how many "heroes" of the Ukrainian forces drowned during the crossing, and more soldiers were killed when they attacked the outer positions of the village of Dibrova. Only a few surviving Ukrainian battalions managed to break into the center of the village, but they eventually met the same fate of being annihilated.
Russian reports are relatively restrained. For example, the telegraph channel "Operational Space," which mainly reports on the activities of the Western Grouping, stated: "The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to launch attacks near the settlements of Dibrova and Ilichevka (known as Ozerne in Ukraine). The Russian Aerospace Forces and the artillery of the 25th Army of the Western Grouping continue to carry out fire strikes on Ukrainian transport vehicles and ferry crossings, completely cutting off the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces toward the Lyman direction."
It should be added that, in the area where the Western Grouping and the Southern Grouping of Russian forces overlap, the more important Slavyansk front line has also shown signs of weakening. In fact, the initial strategic positioning of the Lyman battle was to pave the way for the Russian breakthrough of the Slavyansk defense line to the north. However, currently, Russian forces have started advancing from the areas of Seversk and Solodar toward this last city cluster still held by the Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Even the most authoritative mapping platform within Ukraine, DeepStateUA, has marked that, in just a few days at the beginning of the new year, Russian forces have advanced a full 7 kilometers. Another insider from the Ukrainian General Staff revealed, "Russian forces have continuously launched attacks on the highlands west of Seversk, and in the past four days, have captured multiple new positions in the village of Leznykovka and its southern area." These successes by the Southern Grouping have completely eliminated the last bit of strategic value of the Ukrainian forces holding onto Lyman.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7591820511093457454/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.