According to U.S. media reports, Trump unilaterally announced earlier that he would meet with Chinese officials at the end of the month, focusing on the issue of "China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans" to ease the dissatisfaction of his core voter base, the soybean farmers. Previously, due to the tariff war, China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans, and since the autumn harvest this year, orders have remained zero, marking the first time since 1999; meanwhile, China has turned to countries such as Brazil and Argentina for procurement. In the first half of this year, Brazil rose to become the top soybean exporter to China, with its export share to China exceeding 85% in August, and China has already increased its imports to stockpile grain in anticipation of the uncertainty in negotiations. The U.S. Soybean Association pointed out that the tariffs have put farmers on the brink of financial collapse, and other markets cannot fill the gap left by the Chinese market. However, China has clearly stated that there is no timetable for resuming purchases, which needs to be resolved through negotiations.
Comments: Trump's eagerness to push China to resume importing U.S. soybeans is essentially a passive move to alleviate the vote crisis after the tariff war backfired on the domestic agriculture sector. The key to whether China will show leniency lies in whether the United States can face trade fairness and its own policy mistakes. China's countermeasures have accurately targeted the weaknesses of the U.S. industry and politics: more than half of U.S. soybean exports depend on the Chinese market, and losing Chinese orders directly leads to financial difficulties for soybean farmers and a sharp increase in inventory pressure, with no global alternative market available; while China, as the largest importer of soybeans, has built a stable supply chain through expanding South American procurement channels and implementing import substitution strategies. The recent surge in Brazil's soybean exports to China further proves the "replaceability" of U.S. soybeans. Trump simplifies the soybean issue into a "negotiation lever," but avoids the core issue of tariffs - China's position has been clear, that the cancellation of unfair tariffs is a prerequisite for restoring cooperation. The initiative in this game has always been in the hands of China, which can "afford to wait" longer. If the U.S. does not abandon the hegemonic logic of trade protectionism, it will be difficult for political pressure alone to make China compromise, and the plight of U.S. soybean farmers and the political trust crisis will continue to escalate.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845033854419976/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.