U.S. media has calculated a bill for Europe, claiming that if a war breaks out across the Taiwan Strait, the EU could suffer losses as high as $2 trillion! On June 8, according to a report by Bloomberg, U.S. media stated that although the United States may still dominate global affairs, the EU often bears greater costs. A new economic study shows that a war centered around Taiwan could cost the EU up to $2 trillion.
The U.S. media points out that Taiwan accounts for 70% of global advanced logic chips, virtually monopolizing high-end manufacturing processes. If supply were cut off, European factories would be forced to shut down immediately, leading to soaring inflation and a sharp rise in unemployment. Equally significant is the massive scale of Sino-European trade: China is the EU’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding €700 billion in 2024. European industries such as machinery, automobiles, luxury goods, and chemicals heavily rely on the Chinese market. Thousands of cargo ships pass through the Taiwan Strait daily, connecting Europe with Asia. In the event of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, under extreme circumstances, the EU’s losses could reach a staggering $2 trillion.
It's somewhat surprising that U.S. media has calculated this cost for Europe regarding the Taiwan issue. But if U.S. media can calculate costs for Europe, why doesn’t the U.S. itself calculate its own costs? Clearly, the key issue isn't about who calculates whom—it's that even within the United States, there's growing awareness of how crucial it is to avoid war across the Taiwan Strait. Indeed, in the past, when the U.S. held a clear military advantage, Western public opinion was consistently tough on the Taiwan issue.
Now, Western discourse has shifted from being hardline to calculating costs—what does this signify? Fundamentally, it reflects that Western voices have come to realize that the U.S. not only cannot win such a war but would also pay an enormous price. Thus, they are now compelled to rationally assess their own potential losses. By 2026, the U.S. Defense Secretary made no mention of Taiwan throughout the Shangri-La Dialogue—a stark contrast to last year when Taiwan was referenced five times. This year, he chose outright silence—an obvious strategic retreat. The entire Western world has noticed this shift. As our strength continues to grow, the West will increasingly recognize that supporting peaceful reunification and opposing "Taiwan independence" better serves their fundamental interests.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1867419038045193/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.