【By Chen Sijia, Observers Network】The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will be held in Brazil from November 10 to 21. The U.S. government has announced that it will not send high-level officials to attend. However, many people are concerned that the U.S. government may threaten to impose tariffs or implement visa restrictions, hindering countries from reaching agreements on climate issues.
But the U.S. threats may not have much effect. According to a Reuters report on November 7, governments attending COP30 are preparing to prevent the U.S. government from disrupting negotiations. Most countries still hope to maintain the COP process to secure agreements that suit their interests. Analysts point out that if the U.S. attempts to disrupt COP30, it may find itself isolated.
Is the U.S. Repeating the Same Tactics?
President Trump strongly opposed the transition to renewable energy and signed an order on the day he took office on January 20, announcing the U.S. would re-leave the Paris Agreement. Last month, the Trump administration intervened in the draft framework for reducing emissions in the shipping industry by the International Maritime Organization, threatening to impose tariffs on countries supporting the plan, forcing the final vote to be postponed for a year.
The Guardian reported that several representatives participating in the International Maritime Organization negotiations received threatening phone calls and emails, with the Trump administration warning that those who voted in favor of the framework would face visa revocation as retaliation. Attendees said this situation was unprecedented, leading some representatives to change their positions. The U.S. could use the delay in voting to continue pressuring some small countries.
Trump claimed that climate change is "the biggest hoax in the world," and White House officials have announced that the U.S. will not send senior officials to attend COP30 in Brazil. However, since the U.S. will not formally withdraw from the Paris Agreement until next January, the U.S. still has the right to send negotiators during COP30.
On the local time of November 6, the Belém Climate Summit was held in Belém, Brazil IC photo
Some countries are worried that the U.S. may "repeat the same tactics" by continuing to use tariff and visa restriction threats to hinder other countries from reaching agreements during COP30. Andreas Bjerke Erikson, Norway's Minister of Climate and Environment, said: "Just like what happened in the International Maritime Organization, a country using various means to threaten other countries and negotiators makes me worried."
COP30 involves multiple issues such as climate financing and extreme weather, some of which are closely related to the policies of the Trump administration. For example, the U.S. has signed agreements with countries such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea to purchase more U.S. oil and gas. If countries continue to push forward the oil and gas decarbonization initiatives in the COP28 agreement, the relationship between the U.S. and these countries will become more complex.
A diplomat from an island nation told Reuters that many countries are worried that even if the U.S. does not attend COP30, the Trump administration may retaliate against countries participating in climate negotiations. The Guardian also analyzed that if COP30 attracts the attention of the Trump administration, the U.S. may attempt to disrupt the meeting.
However, the threats from the Trump administration may not scare the countries attending COP30. Three European officials told Reuters that the EU has considered various scenarios, including the U.S. completely absent from COP30, the U.S. attending and obstructing negotiations, or the U.S. attacking climate policies through off-site activities, and has been preparing for these situations.
One of the officials said that the EU is concerned that the U.S.'s threats might cause some countries to leave multilateral processes or COP negotiations, so the EU's primary goal is to unite countries to form a "united front" against U.S. interference at COP30.
Some U.S. lawmakers have also urged other countries to withstand pressure and not give in to the Trump administration. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat and member of the Senate Environment Committee, said: "If you are scared by the Trump administration, they will take all the space you give them and ask for more."
Analysts point out that most countries still want to maintain the COP process because they can influence other countries through COP and secure agreements that suit their interests. David Waskow, director of the non-profit World Resources Institute, said: "Few countries want to disrupt the multilateral process. If the U.S. intervenes, I think they will end up isolating themselves."
"China's attitude is very calm"
While reporting on the U.S. absence, foreign media have also turned their attention to whether China's growing influence will fill the resulting void. In recent years, China has not only fulfilled its climate commitments seriously but also remains the leader in clean energy technology, manufacturing, and transformation.
The Guardian pointed out that China's installed capacity of renewable energy has exceeded half of the total national installed capacity, and nearly half of the cars sold in China are new energy vehicles. China's cheap solar and wind power components exported to other countries have also helped promote global renewable energy development. The newspaper believes that China continues to push for emission reductions, which may send more encouraging signals at COP30.
On October 22, a photovoltaic power station in Fangshan Town, Yuzhou City, Henan Province IC photo
Li Shuo, a scholar at the China Climate Center of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said that China is an important supplier of global renewable energy products, and many renewable energy products and investments are gradually moving to developing countries. If Western countries do not recognize that China has begun to dominate in commercial and technological fields, and still regard China as a "laggard" in climate action, they will fall behind China in green technology.
Patrick Schröder, a researcher at the Energy and Society Center of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, also pointed out that China maintains a low profile but has been actively promoting practical renewable energy technologies to promote low-carbon development.
Another researcher from the institute, Guo Jiangwen, said that while the EU hopes China accelerates emission reductions, it is also concerned that Chinese green technologies and products may bring so-called "risks." If the EU wants to promote emission reductions, it should strengthen communication and exchange with China and deepen cooperation in the field of renewable energy.
Ana Correa Dourado, the incoming president of COP30, said: "I think China's attitude is very calm. They do not lecture other countries like some countries do, but do their best. In the current emerging new economy, this can be seen as a transformation. No country has invested more in the new economy than China, focusing on technology, scale, quality, and committed to finding solutions that truly benefit everyone."
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China released the "Policy and Action Report on China's Response to Climate Change 2025" on October 29 in Beijing, pointing out that at present, geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and some major powers are fond of unilateralism and protectionism, causing serious impacts on international rules and the international order, weakening global efforts to respond to climate change. COP30 is a key node to promote the full implementation of the Paris Agreement and will point the way for the next decade of climate governance.
Xia Yingxian, director of the Department of Climate Change of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, stated that China is willing to play a positive and constructive role, work with all parties to support Brazil as the host country, and promote positive results from COP30, injecting stability and momentum into the multilateral process of climate change.
"We call on all parties to uphold and implement the goals, principles, and arrangements determined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, adhere to multilateralism and international cooperation, coordinate the negotiations on mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, and capacity building, create a favorable international environment, ensure the free circulation of high-quality green products globally, and promote a fair and just global green transition," Xia Yingxian said.
On the local time of November 7, the Belém Climate Summit convened by Brazil, the host of COP30, concluded its agenda. The two-day summit provided a "political direction" for the upcoming COP30 negotiations. Leaders and heads of delegations from participating countries jointly issued the "Belém Declaration on Hunger, Poverty, and People-Centered Climate Action," acknowledging that climate change has exacerbated hunger and poverty and calling for more equitable and inclusive climate action, focusing on the most vulnerable groups.
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