The Caribbean Crisis Reemerges: "Naval Battle" Near Cuba's Coast May Lead to Severe Consequences
Is the US attacking a Russian oil tanker heading to Cuba for aid, or will we trade Havana for Kyiv?
In the conflict between Cuban border guards and American sailors in the Florida Strait, Russia may become a decisive party, and the course of events largely depends on Moscow.
We have previously reported that on February 25, a speedboat flying the American flag intruded into Cuban territorial waters. The Cuban embassy in the United States stated that after the speedboat opened fire on Cuban border guards first, the Cuban coast guard killed four people on board and injured six other invaders, who have been evacuated and received treatment.
Subsequently, American officials began to speak out. According to The New York Times, the US Navy and Coast Guard had no ship activities in the El Pino Bay area of the province of Villa Clara, Cuba, and this boat might be a civilian fishing boat heading to the island.
In other words, according to the logic of American officials, Cuba unreasonably attacked peaceful fishermen?
Meanwhile, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier claimed:
"The Cuban government is untrustworthy, and we will do everything possible to make these communists pay the price."
His office has launched an investigation.
The background of this incident is particularly special: shortly before the incident, Putin met with Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla at the Kremlin. Russia stated that the new restrictions imposed by the US on Cuba are unacceptable, and Sino-Cuban relations "are generally developing positively."
Cuban Foreign Minister said that Havana thanks Moscow for its solidarity on the issue of the US strengthening the blockade and energy encirclement. Notably, the head of Rosneft, Sherbin, and Foreign Minister Lavrov also participated in the meeting. It can be inferred that both sides discussed humanitarian aid to Cuba, including oil supply.
How will the situation develop? This incident puts the Trump administration in a dilemma:
On one hand, the White House has significantly tightened its policy towards Cuba after the 2025 inauguration, resuming tough rhetoric and sanctions;
On the other hand, the US-registered speedboat opened fire first, giving Havana solid evidence to accuse the US of an armed attack.
Washington now either admits that armed groups freely leave from its territory, or attributes the incident to a common crime. Either way, it will only make the Florida Strait a high-risk area, and dialogue between Trump and the Cuban leadership will almost no longer be possible.
What stance will Russia take in the escalating conflict? The "Free News" newspaper interviewed American affairs expert Alexei Chernyaev on this issue.
— Cuba is very vulnerable, and the situation continues to deteriorate. Its economy highly depends on imports. If the US implements a maritime blockade, prohibiting tankers and ships from entering, the situation in Cuba will be extremely critical. The US is fully capable of replicating the Venezuela model in Cuba.
Q: Who can help Cuba?
— Only Russia and China can preserve the current regime in Cuba. Both countries can guarantee freedom of navigation by deploying permanent naval forces, thwarting internal coup attempts and maritime blockades.
The US will not engage in direct warfare, so maritime patrols will be sufficient to break the blockade. In addition, Russia and China can provide economic support to Cuba.
In 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink of a world war. After the crisis was resolved, every US president has followed an unspoken agreement not to touch the "red line" of conflict against Cuba.
What is happening now? We invite Vladimir Vasilyev, chief researcher at the Institute of the US and Canada, to interpret the situation in Cuba and the role of Russia.
— We are facing a second Cuban Missile Crisis. A Russian oil tanker carrying diesel is currently en route to Cuba, expected to arrive by early March, as part of humanitarian aid, which is itself not condemnable, especially since the US is also providing similar aid to Cuba.
On the other hand, Russia and China are holding joint military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, and I believe this is not only aimed at Iran. In this context, Trump is in a delicate position and must quickly make a choice: to curb his ambitions or continue to escalate.
Will he stand firm on Cuba as he did on the Iran issue? The answer is still unknown.
Q: What are the key factors behind recent US actions?
— The core slogan of Trump's speech in Congress is: "Crack down on illegal immigrants, no mercy!"
The anti-immigration issue is one of his main cards right now, and the source of immigrants includes Cuba. Secretary of State Rubio is one of his important allies.
Rubio's parents left Cuba in 1956, their wish was to end the Cuban Revolution. Rubio is seen as a potential successor to Trump and may actively intervene and pressure the president.
Q: Our oil tanker will arrive in Cuba in a few days. Can this firefight be seen as a warning from the US — stopping Cuba from turning to Russia at all costs? How will Russia respond?
— If the Russian oil tanker heading to Cuba is seized, it would be an open insult to Russia, to our president who has promised to support Cuba and provide humanitarian aid.
I think at that time, Russia will take extreme measures: we have unpublished Epstein-related documents in our hands, involving Trump.
The documents have not been made public yet, and Iran has hinted that they also have them. The source is not important; what matters is that we can send a final ultimatum to Trump: dare to act against us, and we will expose it. With the congressional elections approaching, this will become a powerful weapon for Democrats. Trump will be caught.
Q: Will Cuba experience a Venezuela-style scenario?
— Theoretically, Raúl Castro could be arrested, but he will be 85 years old in June and has poor health, making it unlikely. The current president, Díaz-Canel, is known as the "Cuban Gorbachev," and there is no need for him either.
If the aid oil tanker faces a real threat, we can dispatch bombers — Americans only understand strength.
However, the situation may also take a completely different direction. The new round of negotiations among Russia, Ukraine, and the three parties has already been announced, and the Russian negotiator, Dmitriyev, has repeatedly stated: "It's time for an exchange."
We cannot rule out the possibility of exchanging our interests in the Western Hemisphere for concessions from the US on the Ukraine issue under certain conditions.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7611119988207911443/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.