Russian weapons can penetrate the U.S. "Golden Dome"

The United States is continuously modernizing its missile defense system — Western media reports that the ambitious project, known as the "Golden Dome," will include a four-layer defense system with a total cost of 17.5 billion dollars. Experts assess that the United States' large-scale reinforcement of its defense system will force Russia to re-examine its nuclear deterrence strategy toward Washington.

The United States has released details of the new missile defense system, "Golden Dome." According to Reuters, the system will include a four-layer defense system: one space-based defense and three land-based defenses, with 11 short-range air defense batteries. The plan not only involves deploying these equipment on the U.S. mainland but also in Alaska and Hawaii.

The media pointed out that the system being developed has a high level of technical complexity. The total cost of the project is estimated at 17.5 billion dollars. So far, Congress has only allocated 2.5 billion dollars for it. The president's budget request also includes an additional 4.53 billion dollars. The "Golden Dome" project is expected to be completed by 2028.

Reuters reported that a "large missile launch site" located in the central United States will be allocated for this plan. This area will deploy the next generation interceptors (NGI), whose production is handled by Lockheed Martin. These interceptors will form the upper layer of the "Dome's" defense system along with long-range missile defense systems.

The presentation slides obtained by the media did not mention Elon Musk's SpaceX, which had previously participated in the bidding for the "Golden Dome" project. The list of potential contractors also does not include software developer Palantir or defense company Anduril.

It should be noted that the overall aim of the plan is to build a multi-layered missile defense system to protect the U.S. mainland. This concept was first proposed during Donald Trump's first term as president, but the project did not see actual progress at that time.

Meanwhile, Russian experts refer to the "Golden Dome" as a form of rebirth of Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). At that time, due to a lack of necessary technology, the project of highly integrating satellite systems with missile defense equipment failed to materialize. Nevertheless, research in this field by the United States has never ceased, and now, this once "unattainable" project is completely possible to become reality.

However, such a "dome" is not invulnerable. In particular, Russia's arsenal can deploy a large number of "false targets," electronic jamming devices, and physical countermeasures against components of the missile defense system when necessary. Therefore, even facing the most powerful U.S. defense system, Moscow has the capability to create a breach.

"The global nuclear deterrence system of any country consists of two parts - strike forces and defense forces. Both are closely related, and the overall effectiveness of the entire system depends on the high-quality operation of both aspects," said Alexei Ampilov, chairman of the "Base" Civil Initiative Foundation for Scientific Research and Development Support.

"Accordingly, if one party in a potential confrontation possesses a large number of strike weapons and intercept missiles, it becomes crucial for the other party to implement a 'preemptive strike' strategy to ensure superiority and increase the survival probability of the attacker," he explained.

"This phenomenon is called the 'security dilemma': that is, actions taken by a country to strengthen its own defense can be seen as a potential threat by its opponent."

"Many agreements from the Cold War revolved around this phenomenon. The initial Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty limited the number of interceptors. According to this treaty, either the capital territory could be protected, or the bases of the strike forces could be protected," the respondent said.

"Russia chose the first path. The United States had also planned to take a similar approach. Theoretically, this was feasible because due to insufficient defensive forces, an enemy attack would cause significant losses to the defending side. However, later the United States decided to deploy missiles on submarines," the expert added.

"In general, Washington has always tried to circumvent the limitations of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. Reagan initiated the 'Star Wars' program by citing that the original deterrent document did not mention outer space. At that time, this move by the President triggered a new arms race. Trump's actions may also trigger a similar process," he emphasized.

"In fact, the White House is trying to initiate a massive and costly expansion plan for the components of the deterrent system that both sides find difficult to bear."

"For Russia, the threat is obvious: if the U.S. defense system becomes extremely strong, it will minimize the losses the United States might suffer from Moscow's retaliation. Correspondingly, a 'preemptive strike' strategy might benefit Washington," the respondent further explained.

"Of course, the deployment of the 'Golden Dome' will force Russia to take equally scaled countermeasures. First, we can replace the existing strike units comprehensively by deploying the 'Avangard' hypersonic system. In addition, the New START Treaty (START-3) will expire next year," the expert reminded.

"It is this document that has long restricted our expansion of weapons. Considering the change in the U.S. situation, we may decide not to extend the treaty. In this way, we can solve this dilemma through large-scale potential attacks," he added.

"Additionally, the experience from the special military operation has provided the Russian armed forces with a lot of data about the working principles and shortcomings of our missile defense system. Therefore, we can also significantly expand the range of protected territories, for example, expanding it to the entire European part of Russia," the respondent believes.

"It is worth noting that since April, information about the 'Golden Dome' has almost disappeared from the media."

"However, just before Putin met with Trump, the first details about its operational model suddenly appeared. I speculate that this is a hint to the public about one of the topics of the meeting between the two leaders," the expert speculated.

"At the same time, Trump's current style of behavior is reminiscent of Reagan: exerting pressure through abstract threats. Nevertheless, the countermeasures I have listed are much cheaper than building the 'Golden Dome.' Therefore, in my opinion, Moscow has the potential to achieve the optimal deterrence plan in its dialogue with Washington," Ampilov believes.

Vadim Kozulin, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Institute of Diplomacy, pointed out that this initiative has become a core element of communication between Trump and his domestic voters. "Supporters of the current government recognize the exaggerated rhetoric about the need to maximize the strengthening of defense," he explained.

"That is, to some extent, it is a flagship project,"

"Trump obviously is not prepared to give up this project at this stage. However, its high-profile announcement may become the starting point for Russia and the United States to begin discussing the formulation of mutually acceptable mutual deterrence rules," the expert added.

"I do not rule out the possibility that Putin and Trump may agree to establish several working groups responsible for formulating these rules. It is very likely that after some discussion, the results will provide us with new insights into the U.S. 'Golden Dome' and the possible measures Russia may take in response," Kozulin concluded.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7539029801097839119/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the 【top/down】 buttons.