There are "third-party forces" behind Aliyev, and Azerbaijan is actively "Ukrainizing"

Baku cannot afford a long-term conflict with Moscow economically

Author: Stanislav Tarasov

No one expected that a criminal case in Yekaterinburg and the trial of several Azerbaijani nationals accused of hiring hitmen and attempted murder would trigger a serious crisis between Moscow and Baku. But then, negative news from the South Caucasus followed one after another.

The "Sputnik Azerbaijan" branch of the Russian state news agency was searched in Baku, and its staff were detained, with local media suggesting that some of them might be employees of the Federal Security Service of Russia. Subsequently, all cultural activities related to Russia were canceled, and the visit of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Ovechkin was also called off.

Repression against our citizens by Azerbaijan continues. This makes people think that the event in Yekaterinburg is merely a detour in a complex and undisclosed process, as Baku's so-called response actions are disproportionate and involve "major political issues."

Regardless, the large amount of anti-Russian reporting in Azerbaijani media gives this impression. At the same time, they portray our country as "a former hegemon that needs to be gradually expelled from the region." The Russian Foreign Ministry was forced to protest to Ambassador of Azerbaijan Rakhman Mustafayev, "due to Baku's unfriendly behavior."

Unfortunately, this is not the first incident in recent months that has had a negative impact on bilateral relations. In late December last year, a passenger plane operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) on the Baku-Grozny route crashed while landing in Aktau, Kazakhstan. At that time, neither side issued any political statements but resolved the situation through diplomatic channels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, "to apologize for the tragic event occurring in Russian airspace."

But after that, the Azerbaijani authorities demanded the closure of the "Russia House." On February 24, they decided to revoke the accreditation of the "Sputnik Azerbaijan" branch. However, at that time, Maria Zakharova, the official spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated, "It is always possible to find solutions acceptable to both sides to deal with and resolve the situation."

However, in early May, Baku accused Moscow of launching a cyberattack on several Azerbaijani media outlets in February 2025. Azerbaijani parliament member Ramil Namazov claimed that Russia is associated with the "Comfort Bear" hacker group.

In other words, a series of negative events in the relationship between the two countries have been happening in a planned and systematic way, but the real reasons behind Baku's actions, and what exactly these hostile actions are related to, remain largely unknown. Will this escalation of confrontation continue?

We can draw some preliminary conclusions. First: Baku's actions are not an emotional reaction to injustice. Similar cases to what happened in Yekaterinburg occur frequently, and if desired, such incidents could be resolved without causing a major uproar. However, the Azerbaijani authorities chose the opposite approach.

Second: It can be seen that there is a factor of "third-party forces," which intentionally uses Azerbaijan as a platform to disrupt Russia's "north-south" geopolitical project.

Third: This creates conditions for the next war with Armenia, and Russia's influence will be completely neutralized.

Finally, experts point out that after winning the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan developed a sense of regional importance. Incidentally, this can also be seen from the current rhetoric of local media — they now accuse Moscow, claiming it seems to not recognize Azerbaijan as a "strong nation-state."

In the regional context, Azerbaijan controls logistics routes, which are equally attractive to Russia, relevant countries, and the European Union. Thus, Baku's open anti-Russian statements become more understandable. However, whether Baku has the ability to continue provoking Moscow remains unknown, as a conflict with Russia may harm Azerbaijan's economy and large enterprises.

But at present, we can only confirm one fact: the relationship between the two countries has entered a deep transformation period. Even if both sides reconcile formally now, it will only be a temporary respite before the next crisis. Aliyev has begun to distance himself from Russia.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522662472948449835/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.