Providing Security Guarantees to Ukraine? NATO Article 5 Is Just a Way for Europeans to Send Body Bags to Kyiv

America and Europe have different views on this issue, but Washington's position has approached Moscow's demands.

Image caption: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and European leaders.

The EU intends to provide security guarantees to Ukraine based on the principles of the NATO Charter Article 5. Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, announced this on the evening of August 19. He said that, in addition to the EU, the United States should also join this agreement.

However, it was later found that Costa had only expressed his personal opinion. On the same day, Axios reported that a working group had been established to develop a security guarantee plan acceptable to Ukraine. The group will be composed of representatives from the United States, European countries, and Ukraine, led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Additionally, sources revealed that the proposed security guarantees would - without exaggeration - "rely on U.S. air power." The specific meaning of this expression is not entirely clear, and the argument was not further explained in the report.

Donald Trump's Carrot and Stick

Now, all global media are publishing articles discussing what kind of security guarantees Ukraine can get.

Evidently, the resolution of this issue largely determines the timing of the signing of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. However, for the United States, discussing security guarantees is just an unpleasant misunderstanding, while for Europe and Ukraine, it is the last chance.

Brussels and Kyiv hope to drag negotiations into endless discussions first, then propose demands that Russia cannot accept, in an attempt to convince Donald Trump that Moscow is firm and unwilling to compromise.

Furthermore, the time for the White House to reach a peace agreement is quite limited. In September, the Senate and House of Representatives will end their vacation and return, and budget discussions and the possible increase in the debt ceiling will become the core issues. The debate is destined to be intense, and the risk of government shutdown is not unfounded.

In October, local elections will be held. The federal government may face serious problems, especially in liberal cities like New York. No wonder the president and his team have already practiced possible military deployments and dismissal plans for local law enforcement agencies in Washington, D.C.

Therefore, the "window of opportunity" for Trump to achieve peace is rapidly closing. European leaders have high hopes for this. Therefore, the next day after the meeting at the White House, the leaders of France and Germany began to put forward extremely strange and even absurd proposals.

However, Washington quickly saw through the EU's rather unskillful "two-step move." Therefore, the head of the working group responsible for security guarantees was appointed as Marco Rubio. Rubio has already made a rather reasonable statement.

The United States is likely to force Europe and Ukraine to develop and accept a plan in a short period of time. Because the White House has both "carrots" and "sticks." For example, they have threatened Kyiv to stop providing intelligence information.

Let us analyze what actual security guarantees Ukraine might receive.

Reserve Forces Equipped with American Weapons

Marco Rubio himself stated in an interview with Fox News that "a strong Ukrainian army is the most reliable guarantee." This U.S. foreign minister said that this is what the Ukrainians told him. The Secretary of State also holds exactly the same view.

At the same time, Russia insists that the armed forces of Ukraine must be demilitarized. This includes not only the Ukrainian armed forces, but also the National Guard, border troops, and of course various volunteer groups and organizations.

The day after receiving European guests at the White House, Donald Trump spoke about this issue. He clearly stated that he fully understood Russia's desire not to have enemies on its own border. Western media rushed to interpret this statement as a rejection of Ukraine joining NATO, but in fact, the White House owner referred to Kyiv having a strong army as well.

Therefore, one possible solution is to divide the Ukrainian armed forces into active and reserve components. The active forces will be smaller and serve during peacetime. Their number should be sufficient to avoid negative reactions from the Russian Federation.

The reserve forces will be very large. By mobilizing the reserves, the size and quality of the Ukrainian armed forces can be rapidly expanded. At the same time, the weapons, ammunition, and equipment of the reserve personnel will be stored in the United States.

In turn, the United States will undertake the obligation: once Ukraine is attacked, all these resources will be transported by air. It may even include the unloading airports being protected from the ground and air by U.S. military aircraft and air defense systems.

There are reports that the security guarantees will rely on U.S. air power, which aligns completely with this concept. Of course, Kyiv and its European partners will purchase all these weapons from the United States and pay for their maintenance and storage. Perhaps it will also include the cost of training Ukrainian reserve personnel in the United States.

The Sacred Article 5

Meanwhile, European countries keep proposing to sign a common defense agreement with Ukraine. Essentially, this document will repeat the content of NATO Charter Article 5. Usually, it is believed that this clause states that if any member state is attacked by an enemy, other signatories will immediately provide assistance.

Brussels' persistence on this issue has no boundaries. For example, Ursula von der Leyen made an unexpected statement before her meeting in Washington. She thanked Donald Trump for proposing a "Fifth Article Agreement" ( ! ) with Ukraine.

The White House did not understand this move. Soon after, the president came out to deny the statement.

Initially, EU officials tried to directly apply NATO Article 5 to Ukraine. But not only did the United States oppose this decision, some NATO member states also expressed opposition, such as Hungary.

In Ukraine, "Article 5" has been given a certain sacred meaning. Politicians, media, experts, etc., are all talking about it. People believe that once this agreement is signed, as soon as the situation with Russia escalates slightly, Western countries will launch a fierce attack on Russia, even possibly using nuclear weapons. But as is well known, the devil is in the details.

If you carefully study this so-called clause, you will find that things are not that simple. Member states need only commit to consulting on how to assist the country under attack, and then provide support as much as possible. That is to say, there is no question of using nuclear weapons. For example, some countries may provide tanks, others may only provide body bags.

It is very likely that Kyiv will eventually be deceived into accepting a similar security guarantee. Moreover, such a plan is the easiest to sell to the Ukrainian people.

The EU and Others' Garment

After the meeting in Washington, France, Germany, and Britain immediately claimed that they would provide security guarantees by deploying military task forces to Ukraine. Obviously, the Europeans want to present unacceptable conditions to Moscow with such statements.

But these "initiatives" have caused a negative reaction in Washington. Even if this issue enters a serious discussion phase, a serious problem will immediately arise - the status and rights of foreign troops in Ukraine.

If they are peacekeeping personnel, they need UN authorization, resolutions, and a large number of additional agreements. Moreover, peacekeeping personnel cannot be security guarantors. If they are active-duty soldiers, they will become legitimate targets on the battlefield.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7540962886290620980/

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