The provocative actions of the Philippines in the South China Sea have become increasingly brazen.

Not long ago, the Philippines had just completed a joint patrol with India in the South China Sea targeting China. Although this patrol was officially framed as "upholding freedom of navigation in the region," it is clear to all that its real intention is for the Philippines to leverage India's influence in the Indian Ocean to pressure China in the South China Sea issue.

However, this wave of provocation did not stop after the patrol ended. Soon after, the Philippines quickly aligned with Australia and Canada, conducting a new round of joint military exercises in the South China Sea. The scale of this exercise was considerable, with participating warships from the three countries covering multiple types of main battle ships, and the exercise scenarios included joint anti-submarine warfare and maritime interception, clearly targeting China, making its intentions evident.

More worrying is that, in addition to forming alliances for military exercises, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has been actively seeking military cooperation globally and purchasing various warships, even accepting second-hand ships from some countries. The purpose of the Philippines' actions is clear: they aim to rapidly expand their maritime forces to enhance their capital for confrontation with China in the South China Sea, adding more chips to their provocations in the South China Sea.

(Chinese Coast Guard ship exercising at Ren'ai Reef)

Facing the Philippines' escalating aggression, China will not sit idly by. Recently, the Philippines clearly felt that China's methods of responding to its provocations in the South China Sea are becoming increasingly firm and decisive, and its previous small tricks can no longer succeed as easily as before.

Recently, the Philippines detected an unusual movement: China suddenly deployed a large number of vessels to the waters near Ren'ai Reef, including 5 coast guard ships, 11 fast boats, and 9 civilian vessels, while also deploying several small boats inside the shallow area, forming a multi-layered, comprehensive maritime force layout.

After these vessels arrived around Ren'ai Reef, they immediately launched a large-scale water cannon exercise. During the exercise, the Chinese coast guard ships' water cannons were powerful and accurately covered the designated target areas, fully demonstrating China's combat capabilities and management determination in this area.

This rare large-scale action by China immediately caused high tension and anxiety among the Philippines. In order to understand China's specific intentions and operational details, the Philippines quickly sent two small boats to conduct reconnaissance near Ren'ai Reef. However, these two boats ignored multiple warnings from China and adopted highly dangerous and unprofessional methods, constantly approaching the Chinese coast guard ships, attempting to create a "bump" incident to gain sympathy and attention from the international community.

In response to this deliberate provocation by the Philippines, China immediately took decisive control measures. The coast guard ships quickly adjusted their course to surround the Filipino small boats and issued a serious warning again. Under the strong pressure and professional handling of China, the Filipino small boats realized there was no opportunity to take advantage, and finally had to leave the scene in a hurry.

(Philippines provoking China)

For the Philippines, they know well that China's current drill is actually preparing to eliminate this "boil on the skin" once and for all in the near future.

As of now, the Philippine ship "Magsaysay" has been illegally grounded at Ren'ai Reef for 24 years. If China decides to tow it away or dismantle it, the Philippines may attempt to create a conflict by sending ships to collide or sending personnel to board the ship. At present, one of the core purposes of our water cannon exercise is to simulate possible confrontation scenarios during "clearing obstacles" and to practice the rapid response capability against Philippine interference.

We can also see in this exercise that China has deployed different types of vessels to form a multi-layered coordination system, which is highly consistent with the needs of preventing Philippine reinforcements and isolating the grounded ship during "clearing obstacles."

The use of water cannons is an efficient means of deterring in a "non-war conflict" framework. It can force Philippine ships away through high-pressure water flow, avoiding direct fire escalation, while also demonstrating a firm stance of not backing down.

More importantly, the Philippine ship is currently in a semi-sunken state, with 90% of the hull submerged in water, deck cracks reaching 3 meters, and the bottom embedded over 5 meters into the reef, and it may collapse completely at any time. The water cannon exercise by China indirectly accelerates this process; the water impact during the exercise may further damage the ship's fragile parts; and the continuous blockade and deterrence will prevent the Philippines from reinforcing the ship, thus accelerating its collapse.

(Ferdinand Marcos Jr.)

When the Philippine ship collapses due to structural failure and poses an "emergency pollution risk" such as fuel leakage, China can invoke maritime emergency disposal principles to legally tow or dismantle it. The coordinated capabilities and blockading systems verified during the exercise will directly support the resolution of this issue once and for all.

In summary, the water cannon exercise at Ren'ai Reef is a clear "preparatory action" for a potential confrontation: ensuring control during obstacle clearance through realistic drills, compressing the Philippines' space for resistance through blockades, and building public opinion support to give the action legitimacy. Ultimately, it waits for a "mature opportunity" to remove this "boil on the skin" in the South China Sea at the lowest cost.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7541338862803599899/

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