The United States, as the country with the strongest military power in the world today, has unparalleled influence on the international stage, thanks to its massive military budget, cutting-edge weapon technology, global military bases, and a strong alliance system.
In 2024, the U.S. military spending reached 997 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 37% of the total global military expenditure. It is expected that in 2025, it will break through one trillion U.S. dollars for the first time. Its aircraft carrier battle groups, stealth fighters, and long-range precision strike capabilities make many countries fear. Despite its overwhelming military advantage, the United States is not omnipotent.
In the complex international political and geopolitical landscape, certain countries have unique military capabilities, geographical locations, international relations, or nuclear deterrence forces, which make the United States think twice before considering military actions.
Iran: A Strong Fortress of Geographical Barriers and Missile Deterrence
Iran's territory is about 1.648 million square kilometers, with highlands and mountainous areas accounting for more than 60% of the land area. This complex terrain is similar to Afghanistan, creating natural barriers for invading armies. Historically, the United States faced prolonged wars in the Afghan War and the Iraq War due to terrain problems, consuming a large amount of human and material resources. The topography of Iran not only limits the rapid advancement of mechanized forces but also provides an ideal environment for guerrilla warfare. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has rich experience in unconventional warfare, and if the United States launches a ground offensive, it may face similar setbacks.
More importantly, Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the strait in conflicts, such as when tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated in 2019, demonstrating its control over the strait. Blocking the strait would cause a sharp rise in international oil prices, leading to serious economic shocks globally, and American allies like European countries and Japan would also bear great pressure. Therefore, the geographical position gives Iran the leverage to fight against a larger opponent, making the United States hesitant to take risks.
Iran's missile technology has made significant progress in recent years, becoming a core pillar of its military strategy. The "Fateh-2" hypersonic missile independently developed by Iran can reach speeds of up to 14 Maches, with a range of about 1,500 kilometers and a warhead weight of 450 kilograms. In April 2024, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, with seven "Fateh-2" missiles all hitting their targets, breaking through Israel's "Arrow" anti-missile system and the U.S.-deployed "Patriot" system. The penetration capability of this hypersonic weapon poses a direct threat to U.S. military bases in the Middle East, such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, both of which are within the range of Iranian missiles.
In addition, Iran possesses a series of weapons such as the "Khorramshahr" ballistic missiles, with a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers. These missiles not only have sufficient numbers but also flexible deployment, allowing them to quickly strike U.S. military targets in the region. If the U.S. goes to war with Iran, its military assets in the Middle East will be hit first, resulting in immeasurable losses.
Iran's relationship with Russia and China has become increasingly close, providing it with diplomatic and military support. Since the signing of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, despite the U.S. unilaterally withdrawing in 2018, China and Russia have continued to maintain economic and military cooperation with Iran.
In June 2025, Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and missile factories triggered a large-scale retaliatory missile attack by Iran. The United States remained low-key and did not directly intervene in this incident, showing its reluctance to escalate into a full-scale conflict. Iran's status as a major oil exporter also adds to its leverage. As an OPEC member, its daily crude oil production is about 3 million barrels, and any supply disruption caused by a military action would trigger a global energy crisis. These factors force the United States to prefer sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military confrontation on the issue of Iran.
Syria: A Complex Chessboard of Great Power Rivalry
Since intervening in the Syrian civil war in 2015, Russia has stationed a large number of military forces at the Tartus naval base and the Hemeimim air base. These bases are not only strategic footholds for Russia in the Mediterranean but also symbols of its influence in the Middle East. Even if the Assad regime falls, Russia remains committed to maintaining its military presence and continuing cooperation with the new Syrian government. U.S.-Russia relations have been tense in recent years, especially after the Ukraine conflict, forming a confrontation situation in multiple regions around the globe. If the United States takes large-scale military action in Syria, it could very likely touch Russia's strategic bottom line, leading to the risk of direct confrontation between major powers.
In 2018, when the U.S. conducted air strikes on Syria, it deliberately avoided Russian-controlled areas, showing its cautious attitude towards escalating conflicts. In 2025, the S-400 air defense systems deployed by Russia in Syria further enhanced its defensive capabilities. If the United States acts recklessly, it could face significant losses.
The Syrian civil war involves multiple forces including Turkey, Iran, the United States, and Israel, forming a complex power structure. Shiite militias supported by Iran are still active in Syria, while Turkey controls the northern border areas. The United States maintains a small number of troops in the northeast to combat remnants of ISIS. In March 2025, the new Syrian government reached an agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to jointly eliminate remnants of the Assad regime, bringing the situation to a relatively stable state. Under these circumstances, the United States tends to shape its influence through diplomacy and economic aid rather than resorting to force.
The international community generally seeks peaceful solutions to the Syrian issue. If the United States insists on using force, it would not only provoke strong reactions from Russia and Iran but also face condemnation from the United Nations and other countries, leading to diplomatic isolation. This multi-party constraint greatly limits the United States' military options.
Azerbaijan: A Vital Energy Corridor and Geopolitical Hub
Azerbaijan borders Russia to the north, Iran to the south, the Caspian Sea to the east, and Turkey to the west, making it a key node connecting East and West. Its proximity to the sensitive Caucasus region makes any military action potentially trigger a chain reaction. Russia has a military base in Armenia, and there are historical grievances between Russia and Azerbaijan. If the United States takes military action against Azerbaijan, Russia may use this opportunity to intervene. Iran shares a border of more than 700 kilometers with Azerbaijan, and the two countries have close cultural and economic ties. U.S. military actions could lead to a strong reaction from Iran.
Additionally, Turkey, a NATO member, has a close relationship with Azerbaijan. During the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Turkey provided military support to Azerbaijan. If the United States acts recklessly, it would not only worsen relations with Turkey but also undermine the unity within NATO.
Azerbaijan is an important oil and gas producer in the Caspian region. Its Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and Southern Gas Corridor provide energy support to Europe. In 2022, Azerbaijan signed an agreement with the EU, promising to double its natural gas exports by 2027 to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy. In 2025, Azerbaijan hosted the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29), further solidifying its international standing.
If the United States takes military action against Azerbaijan, it could disrupt Europe's energy supply and cause dissatisfaction among allies. Global energy market fluctuations would also increase economic uncertainty, which is contrary to the strategic interests of the United States. Therefore, Azerbaijan's role in energy is an important safeguard against military threats.
Pakistan: A Strategic Balance Under the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons
Pakistan has about 120 nuclear warheads, and its nuclear arsenal is growing at a rate of 20 per year. Its nuclear arsenal includes the "Shaheen" series of ballistic missiles, with a range covering more than 2,500 kilometers, capable of striking the entire Indian territory and surrounding areas. Pakistan's nuclear strategy is based on the principle of "minimum deterrence," but it clearly states that it will use nuclear weapons if it faces an existential threat. If the United States launches a military operation against Pakistan, it could trigger the risk of a nuclear war, a consequence that no rational country can tolerate.
Additionally, Pakistan's conventional military strength should not be underestimated. Its total armed forces number about 1.7 million, including 650,000 active troops, equipped with 1,399 military aircraft and 1,839 tanks. In 2021, Pakistan successfully tested the "Babar" cruise missile, further enhancing its precision strike capabilities. This nuclear and conventional dual-force military power significantly enhances its defensive capabilities.
Pakistan's "all-weather strategic partnership" with China is an important pillar of its international status. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, as the flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative, has an investment of over 62 billion U.S. dollars, involving energy, port, and railway construction. China also cooperates with Pakistan in the military field, jointly developing the JF-17 "Thunder" fighter jet. If the United States takes military action against Pakistan, it would directly challenge China's core interests and may provoke a strong response from Beijing.
In recent years, Pakistan's relations with Russia have also warmed up. In 2021, the two countries signed a military cooperation agreement, and Russia began exporting weapons to Pakistan. This multi-lateral support increases the diplomatic and military pressure on the United States regarding the issue of Pakistan.
Pakistan's strategic position in South Asia makes it an important force in countering India. The United States has recently tried to bring India closer to counter China, but if it gets into a conflict with Pakistan, it could disrupt this balance, causing India's regional opponent to lose its restraint, thereby affecting the United States' regional strategy.
Although the United States has unparalleled military power, it must weigh the geopolitical, military risks, and economic consequences when facing Iran, Syria, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan. In the future, the United States is more likely to maintain its interests through diplomatic negotiations, economic sanctions, and regional cooperation rather than resorting to force. In the context of globalization and multipolarity, the influence of military hegemony is being redefined, and peace and cooperation may be the better path to resolving disputes.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7522410481111106063/
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