Since the U.S. chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Trump has stated that the U.S. withdrawal from Bagram Airfield was a mistake, partly because the base is close to China. Recently, he has reiterated this view, proposing that the base should be under U.S. control again.

"One of the reasons we want this base, as you know, is that it is only an hour away from where China makes nuclear weapons," Trump said this month in London, but he did not elaborate on how the U.S. would control the base now that the U.S. forces have already withdrawn from Afghanistan. In an interview with Fox News at the end of 2021, Trump had also worried that China would "take over Bagram." However, nuclear experts say that China's nuclear weapons production facilities are located deeper within its territory, but there is an old nuclear test site in Lop Nur, approximately 1,200 miles from Bagram.

Zhao Tong, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program, told CBS News that the last nuclear explosion at the Lop Nur test site was in 1996, but he also pointed out that there have been signs in recent years that China has been maintaining and even expanding the test site.

The U.S. government is closely monitoring China's nuclear weapons program, especially after the Pentagon recently predicted that China will accelerate its nuclear arsenal expansion, increasing the number of warheads from over 200 estimated in 2019 to more than 1,000 by 2030.

Zhao said that Lop Nur is located in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where there are multiple missile and aircraft facilities, serving as a location for China's development of advanced aircraft, missile systems, missile defense technology, and spacecraft.

On August 14, 2024, Taliban military vehicles paraded at Bagram Airfield in Parwan Province to celebrate the third anniversary of the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan

"Some places in northwest China - which are home to many military testing sites in the region, responsible for the development of various advanced military technologies," Zhao said. "So, I think this is an important target for U.S. reconnaissance and surveillance."

However, current and former defense officials say there are other ways to monitor China without U.S. forces stationed at Bagram. A former defense official said that thousands, if not more, soldiers might be needed unless negotiations with the Taliban are reached. Last week in London, the president hinted at possible negotiations, saying, "This could be a small surprise, we're trying to get back (Bagram Airfield), because they (Taliban) need us to provide something." But a few days later, the Taliban rejected any plan to hand over Bagram to the U.S.

Taliban chief spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid posted on X, urging the U.S. to remember the Doha Agreement of 2020 - which was negotiated during Trump's first term, in which the U.S. promised "not to threaten or use force to infringe on Afghanistan's territorial integrity or political independence" and not to interfere in Afghanistan's internal affairs.

But this did not stop President Trump from threatening on social media that "bad things will happen" if Afghanistan does not "return" the base to the U.S.

Zalmai Khalilzad, a former U.S. envoy who participated in the Doha Agreement negotiations, said that if other issues between the U.S. and the Taliban are resolved, the two sides may still reach an agreement on joint use of the base. Khalilzad posted on X, "In time, I do not rule out the possibility of strengthening security cooperation, including using facilities like Bagram for joint counterterrorism operations. But this requires sustained efforts." The envoy recently met with senior Taliban officials in Kabul as part of the U.S. delegation to discuss prisoner exchanges.

The base was originally built by the Soviet Union in the 1950s and was occupied by U.S. forces during the U.S. war in Afghanistan until July 2021, when the U.S. handed it over to the Afghan National Army. A month later, the Taliban took over the entire country, including Bagram Airfield.

Bill Roggio, who has studied Afghanistan for over 25 years and is the author of the Journal of Long War from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said in an email: "The Taliban are untrustworthy, and they will not give Bagram back to the U.S."

Roggio said, "The Taliban fought for 20 years to expel the U.S., and they will not allow the U.S. to return."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7554291050493329939/

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