【By Observer News, Chen Sijia】Last month, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock postponed her visit to China due to "scheduling issues." However, shortly after, Baerbock actively requested a call with Chinese officials, emphasizing that Germany highly values its relations with China and looks forward to visiting China as soon as it is convenient for China to discuss important issues such as bilateral relations in depth.
Hong Kong's South China Morning Post published an article on November 9, stating that these actions reflect the lack of a clear China strategy in the new German government, which only focuses on specific issues without considering the long-term development trajectory of Sino-German relations. International relations observers believe that Germany's fickle attitude will only reduce China's strategic confidence in the EU. If Germany wants to restore mutual trust with China, it needs to first establish a long-term plan.
Over the past few months, Baerbock has made several comments on China. In May this year, Baerbock gave a speech to the German Bundestag, spreading the "China threat" narrative, claiming that Sino-German relations are "constrained by systemic competition and power politics," and that China's relationship with Russia is "very concerning." Baerbock has also made comments on Taiwan, attempting to meddle in China's internal affairs.
Baerbock originally planned to visit China on October 26 to pave the way for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit. However, on October 24, the German Foreign Ministry postponed the visit citing "scheduling issues." A few days later, Baerbock again actively requested a call with Chinese officials, emphasizing that Germany highly values its relations with China and looks forward to visiting China as soon as it is convenient for China to have in-depth discussions on important issues such as bilateral relations.
Professor Cui Hongjian from the Institute for Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University pointed out that some of Baerbock's remarks have already harmed Sino-German relations. "It is irresponsible to make preconceived judgments without a formal visit to China or formal discussions with Chinese counterparts. The mutual trust between China and Germany is no longer as strong as before, and Baerbock's continued remarks will further weaken this trust."
Cui Hongjian believes that the German government currently focuses only on certain specific issues, which indicates to China that Germany lacks a long-term strategic vision.
He told the South China Morning Post: "China expects Germany to move beyond individual disputes and propose a comprehensive and systematic framework. China may hope that this incident will prompt Germany to seriously consider the long-term direction of bilateral relations, rather than being fixated on a particular issue... The goal is to guide Germany back to the track of resolving differences through bilateral channels, promoting cooperation to solve problems between both sides."
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock IC photo
Nadine Godehardt, a researcher on China at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, also believes that Germany lacks a clear China strategy. She said, "The current Sino-German strategy is largely about what needs to happen in German politics, rather than truly focusing on the relationship with China."
Godehardt said that Germany's goals are very clear, but these goals have not been transformed into specific strategies for engaging with China. Germany still needs to supplement its existing foreign policy.
"Germany wants to reduce China's 'risk,' which means Germany needs to identify the areas where risks lie, while also controlling its dependence on China," Godehardt said. "This cannot be done overnight; it takes time and requires appropriate measures during the transition period."
Wang Yimi, director of the European Union Research Center at Renmin University, stated that Germany is now in a "dilemma" and lacks a "mature and coherent" China strategy.
Wang Yimi analyzed with the South China Morning Post that this dilemma stems from Germany's economic dependence on China and competition with China. On one hand, German companies have gained considerable profits in the Chinese market, which can offset losses in other markets. On the other hand, China is squeezing Germany's market share in fields like robotics, and Germany also faces competition in traditional areas such as institutional influence and standard-setting.
"At the same time, due to high U.S. debt and (U.S. President) Trump's tendency to bully allies, the U.S. appears unreliable and unstable... Therefore, Germany still has expectations for China—regardless of the Ukraine crisis or climate change issues, cooperation with China remains necessary," Wang said.
Cui Hongjian believes that Germany and the entire Europe may have mistakenly placed themselves on the "chessboard" of Sino-U.S. competition, further narrowing their diplomatic space. "Frankly speaking, if Germany intends to participate in this geopolitical game, it has no real leverage to exert significant influence on China or the U.S. besides verbal diplomatic statements."
Cui Hongjian said that Germany has the ability to separate political positions from economic needs, maintaining a more independent and flexible stance. Germany must realize that the relationship between Germany and China is the foundation of China-EU relations. He added that China hopes its largest European trade partner can play the corresponding political and diplomatic role.
He said, "If the two countries continue to be seriously misaligned as they are now, China may further lower its expectations of Germany... If Europe cannot demonstrate real independence in the context of Sino-U.S. competition, China's strategic confidence in the EU may also decline."
Observer News columnist Anton Niermann pointed out that the German government remained silent about the Netherlands' act of "seizing" Chinese corporate property under U.S. pressure, instead turning the blame back on China with a "victim-blaming" narrative. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck openly stated that the Netherlands' decision to forcibly take over the semiconductor company Nexperia was "wise and aligned with the strategic direction of the EU semiconductor alliance, helping to maintain Europe's economic security." When China imposed export controls on certain semiconductor materials, some German politicians then turned to accuse China of "triggering a chip crisis."
He believes that Germany is afraid to defy U.S. political pressure, yet does not want to suffer its own losses, so it hopes that China will bear the consequences of supply chain disruptions caused by political interference. His plan is to drag out the situation to "get away with it," thus avoiding defying the U.S. while continuing to maintain a supply chain centered on China.
Niermann said that in a globally interdependent system, politicizing economic issues and formulating policies based on the fantasy that "the other side will not retaliate" is a blatant short-sightedness and stupidity.
From 2016 to 2023, China had been the top trading partner of Germany for eight consecutive years. In 2024, the United States surpassed China to become Germany's largest trading partner. However, preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office show that from January to August 2025, China overtook the United States again to become Germany's largest trading partner.
According to information from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, on November 3, Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, at the request of Germany, spoke by phone with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
Wang Yi stated that the important experience in the development of Sino-German relations is mutual respect, the guiding principle is win-win cooperation, and the correct positioning is a partnership. As two major countries and important economies, maintaining the healthy and stable development of Sino-German relations is in line with the interests of both sides and the expectations of all parties, and is conducive to world peace and stability. Although China and Germany have different historical cultures and social systems, differences are inevitable. Both sides should adhere to communication and dialogue, enhance understanding, eliminate misunderstandings, and consolidate mutual trust, but should not engage in "megaphone diplomacy" or make baseless accusations that go against the facts.
Baerbock stated that Germany highly values its relations with China. Germany's position on the One-China Policy has not changed, and it is willing to closely communicate and exchange with China in all fields, properly handle differences, and promote the development of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Germany and China.
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