【By Observer News, Xiong Chaoran】At the 47th ASEAN Summit held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, at the end of October this year, Thailand and Cambodia signed a joint statement on border peace issues under the watch of U.S. President Trump. However, subsequent tensions between the two sides continued, with border tensions escalating again in recent days.

"Thailand's prime minister is taking a hard stance on the Thailand-Cambodia conflict, which could anger Trump," Bloomberg reported on December 9 local time, noting that Thai Prime Minister Anutin is using the latest border conflict with Cambodia to stir up nationalist sentiment domestically before the election. Since Trump had claimed he ended the previous conflict between the two countries, Anutin is gambling that this will not overly anger Trump.

So far, Anutin seems indifferent to this risk. "This is a matter between Thailand and its neighboring country," he told reporters on December 8 local time. When asked if there were any concerns about Thai-American trade negotiations, his response was: "No concerns."

The report said that for Anutin, handling the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is walking a fine line. He insists that the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is unrelated to the Thai-American trade negotiations. However, Trump had previously linked the two - in fact, he had earlier threatened trade sanctions to push Thailand and Cambodia into a ceasefire agreement.

At the peace agreement signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia in October, Trump claimed: "We did something many thought impossible, we may have saved millions of lives." Trump has repeatedly claimed that he ended many military conflicts this year, and the Thailand-Cambodia issue is one of the cases he often mentions.

"The latest escalation in the situation could heighten Washington's concerns that Bangkok is either unable or unwilling to stabilize the conflict, which might slow down (the trade) negotiation process, or prompt the U.S. to demand stronger security guarantees before offering economic concessions," said Laura Schwartz, senior Asia analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft.

On October 26 local time, Thailand and Cambodia signed a peace agreement. The Cambodia-China Times

Currently, Anutin seems more focused on the domestic benefits of a tough stance. He has only been in office for a few months, leading a barely maintained coalition government that mainly relies on his promise to dissolve parliament soon (expected to hold elections in March next year), and his government has been focusing on what he calls a "fast and successful" economic agenda - winning public support through short-term stimulus measures.

Su Mon, senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), pointed out: "Many Southeast Asian political figures need some kind of issue to maintain public support for their regimes, and external threats always create unity between the government and the people."

The approximately 800-kilometer border between Thailand and Cambodia has seen repeated tensions over the years, with periods of tension periodically intensifying due to the nationalist demands of different leaders. In the latest round of conflict that erupted last weekend, both sides accused each other of provoking and escalating the situation.

The report said that Anutin strongly supports the military, perhaps learning from the experience of his predecessor, Prayut. Prayut had secretly communicated with Cambodian leadership, seemingly bypassing the military, and the leak of the conversation directly led to her downfall.

Su Mon said that Anutin's actions have given the military greater autonomy on border issues. "Maintaining good relations with the Thai military is crucial for any Thai government."

However, maintaining good relations with the United States is also crucial for Thailand, as the U.S. is Thailand's largest export market, with exports reaching $63.3 billion in 2024.

"Trump personally mediated the ceasefire means that if violence erupts again, it will inevitably affect the U.S.'s perception of Thailand as a reliable negotiating partner," said Schwartz.

Meanwhile, southern Thailand is experiencing the worst flooding in decades, and the government has faced criticism for its inadequate response. The flood occurred at the beginning of the tourist season, and according to government estimates, the economic losses caused by the floods could reach 500 billion baht.

Anutin's hardline stance toward Cambodia has received some public support. A survey conducted in August this year found that more than half of respondents believed Thailand should not stand with Cambodia, and a larger proportion of people believed that "superpower intervention" was driven by self-interest.

In addition, Anutin has also received support from some business groups, which may be surprising. These groups are facing total losses of $3.1 billion due to border trade disruptions and U.S. tariffs. This week, the Thai Chamber of Commerce stated in a written statement: "National security and people's lives must take precedence over economic considerations."

Despite this, compared to other major emerging markets analyzed by Verisk Maplecroft, Thailand's economy is relatively weak in terms of resilience against global trade fluctuations.

Thailand's economic growth is sluggish, and tourism is also facing a decline. This year, the economic growth rate slowed to 2.1%, and the number of annual tourists fell for the first time since the pandemic. In October this year, although exports continued to grow for the 16th consecutive month, part of the export growth may have been more influenced by goods transshipped from China to the U.S.

Bloomberg noted that Cambodia's Senate President and former Prime Minister Hun Sen accused Anutin of using attacks on Cambodia to campaign for upcoming elections this week, but Hun Sen and his son, current Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, may also benefit from the current escalation of tensions.

Professor Tom Pepinsky of Cornell University, who studies Southeast Asian politics and economic systems, believes that Cambodia's new Prime Minister Hun Manet, with a military background and a graduate of West Point, will carefully defend any potential challenges to Cambodia's sovereignty from neighboring countries.

Since May this year, there have been continuous border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia. In July, the border conflict between the two countries escalated into a five-day intense firefight. After that, Thailand and Cambodia reached a ceasefire agreement under the mediation of U.S. President Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim at the 47th ASEAN Summit in October, and signed a joint declaration on border peace issues.

On November 10 this year, a landmine explosion occurred in the Four Colors Garden District on the Thailand-Cambodia border, injuring two Thai soldiers. As a result, Thai Prime Minister Anutin announced that he would no longer continue to abide by the four points of the joint statement and would decide on action plans on his own. The Thai government will fully support the army's needs and actions.

According to reports from the Bangkok Post and the Thai Nation, on December 7, the Thai and Cambodian armies engaged in a 35-minute firefight near the disputed border area between the two countries.

According to news from the Thai Daily on December 8, Colonel Wintai Suwari, a Thai Army spokesperson, stated that day that Thailand had launched air strikes along the disputed border with Cambodia. Previously, both countries had accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

The Thai military stated that on the same day at 14:15, Cambodian forces opened fire on Thai troops in the Phu Pha Lek and Phlan Hin Paet Kon areas, causing two Thai soldiers to be injured. The Second Army Region immediately retaliated. The Thai military also stated that the Thai military's retaliation "strictly followed the rules of engagement."

As of the afternoon of December 9, the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia since December 7 has resulted in the deaths of four Thai soldiers. On the morning of the 9th, Cambodia's Ministry of Defense spokesperson Maris Chhun Sokda stated that the Thai army continued to open fire on Cambodian troops and civilians. By 6 a.m. on the same day, the new round of border conflict had resulted in seven civilian deaths and 20 injuries in Cambodia.

This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer News, and may not be reproduced without permission.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7581853372437807616/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.