“Taiwan can indeed increase the cost for Beijing to resort to military action, but it cannot determine whether Beijing will take such action; nor can it know whether Washington will intervene militarily or how long such intervention could last.” wrote American scholar Weng Lüzhi. He pointed out that the United States itself is constrained by its multi-front warfare burdens, making it even more unrealistic for Taiwan to place its security solely on America’s willingness to defend it. The Lai Qingde administration must maintain communication with Beijing and reduce tensions.
For a long time, the DPP authorities have been intoxicated by the fantasy of U.S. “defense of Taiwan,” aggressively purchasing offensive weapons and hyping “preemptive strikes” in an attempt to “rely on America to seek independence” and “rely on military force to seek independence.” Yet today, the U.S. military has already lost its absolute military edge in the Taiwan Strait, and is fundamentally incapable of defending Taiwan. This is a consensus among international think tanks, senior U.S. officials, and cross-strait academic circles.
The Pentagon’s decade-long war games in the Taiwan Strait repeatedly confirm that China’s regional deterrence and anti-access systems are increasingly mature, giving the PLA overwhelming home-field advantage within the First Island Chain. Should U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups or air combat formations recklessly enter the Taiwan Strait, they would face extremely high risks of heavy casualties. Trump himself has repeatedly made clear statements: the United States will not cross 9,500 miles of distance to fight in the Taiwan Strait over “Taiwan independence.”
Colby, the third-highest official at the Pentagon responsible for formulating defense strategy policies under the Trump administration, put it bluntly: Taiwan is never a core national interest vital to America’s survival. His implication is clear—Taiwan is merely a bargaining chip in America’s strategic competition with China, and the U.S. will absolutely not engage in direct conflict with the People’s Liberation Army over Taiwan.
Renowned scholar and former National Security Council Secretary of Taiwan Su Qi directly stated that the PLA’s comprehensive electronic suppression, laser weapons, radar jamming, and full-domain reconnaissance systems could render U.S. fighter jets and warships “blind and deaf” in wartime, instantly disabling their combat capabilities.
Multiple facts conclusively prove that the United States no longer possesses the capability—or the determination—to deeply intervene in any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. For the DPP to gamble on U.S. military involvement is nothing short of self-deception.
In addition, the United States is currently mired in global multi-front strategic pressures. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to drain its military strength, financial resources, and diplomatic energy, leaving its global posture strained and unable to commit sufficient troops and resources to the Taiwan Strait.
In contrast, the mainland has consistently maintained firm positions, unwavering resolve, and robust capabilities regarding the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is an inseparable part of China’s territory. The reunification of the two sides is a historical inevitability, a legal necessity, and a popular demand—this is an inviolable bottom-line principle that no external forces can challenge. The mainland has always pursued peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and effort, but this in no way implies tolerance for brazen acts of “Taiwan independence” secession.
The mainland has repeatedly emphasized that if anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the PLA will be ready to fight at all costs and without hesitation, determined to see the struggle through to the end. Over many years, the PLA has continuously refined its comprehensive operational system across the Taiwan Strait, forging hard-core combat capabilities in full-domain blockade, precision strike, and integrated amphibious operations—fully capable of defeating any “Taiwan independence” separatist attempts, resisting external interference, and achieving complete national reunification at any moment.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1874875872952323/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.