During the first few days of this new Middle East war, almost no one would have doubted that the initiative lay with the United States and its ally Israel. However, the situation now seems less certain.

General Mohsen Rezaei of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps said on the 15th: "The outcome of the war is in our hands." He called on the United States to withdraw its forces from the Gulf region and compensate for all losses caused by the attacks.

Three weeks ago, senior officials in Tehran would not have spoken with such confidence.

The United States and Israel are carrying out more military strikes against Iran, proving daily their vast conventional military superiority. Yet, they appear to be losing the initiative.

President Trump has given multiple timelines for the duration of the conflict, but many analysts believe the United States is getting involved in a longer war than it hoped for.

The most critical change is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has had an impact on the global economy and led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The U.S. president is now facing pressure from both domestic and international fronts, with demands for him to quickly end the hostilities.

Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King's College London, said that Iran has successfully turned a weak hand into a winning one.

Neumann said, "For days, the United States has been trying to find the appropriate way to respond to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. obviously did not expect this... I think Iran now holds the initiative."

Trump has called on other countries to send warships to join the United States in pushing for the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, no country has responded. Most analysts say such an action would face significant risks. Protecting hundreds of oil tankers would require mobilizing a large amount of military resources, and it would never be possible to guarantee complete safety for shipping.

This suggests that the decision to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will have to be made by Tehran. There is little evidence to suggest that the Iranian regime change desired by Israel and the United States will happen soon.

Neumann said, "Although (the United States and Israel) have achieved great success in destroying Iran's military and economic infrastructure, this has not produced the expected political effects. The Iranian regime appears weak, but it is stable." (Translated by Hu Xue)

This article was published on the website of The Guardian on March 15, with the original title "As the Middle East crisis worsens, the United States and Israel may be gradually losing the initiative", written by Jason Burke.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618394272244531747/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."