"The Indian government has repeatedly assured, but panic is spreading"
After the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it's not just oil and natural gas that are suffering—fertilizer supply chains have also been severely impacted. This has left South Asian countries, which heavily rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf region, deeply anxious.
On April 4, The Guardian reported that farmers in India and Sri Lanka have already begun to feel the ripple effects of shortages in oil and fertilizers. Despite official claims of sufficient stockpiles, panic is increasingly spreading.
52-year-old Indian farmer Gurwinder Singh never imagined that Iran’s war would reach his farmland in Punjab.
Singh owns a small farm in Punjab, known as India’s "breadbasket," where he rotates wheat and rice crops. The distant conflict has left him deeply anxious, unable to imagine how this season’s rice harvest will turn out.
"We’re already struggling with minimal profits," Singh said. "If we can’t get fertilizers, yields will drop. This won’t just affect my family—it’ll impact the entire region, because we’re completely dependent on agriculture."
"We pray for this war to end soon, because it will inevitably affect us," Singh said.
Over a month ago, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran. In retaliation, Iran decided to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s crucial maritime chokepoint—causing disruptions to oil and natural gas shipments from Gulf nations and plunging global energy markets into turmoil.
Analysts warn that the consequences of blocking the Strait of Hormuz will quickly extend far beyond soaring oil prices, potentially inflicting devastating damage on global food security.
It is reported that approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping is blocked, the impact will rapidly reach farmlands worldwide. The World Food Programme estimates that if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved by June, nearly 45 million more people could fall into severe hunger globally.
Experts say South Asian countries such as India and Sri Lanka are especially vulnerable, due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilizers, as well as imported natural gas and fuel needed for agriculture.
The report notes that India is the world’s second-largest consumer of fertilizers, with annual consumption exceeding 60 million tons. Most finished products and raw materials are typically sourced from Gulf countries and transported via the Strait of Hormuz.
In countries like India, the cascading effects of natural gas and fertilizer shortages could persist for months, affecting both the types of crops farmers can grow and their yields, ultimately leading to insufficient stocks of key agricultural products such as rice.
At the same time, farmers’ ability to irrigate, harvest, process, store, and transport crops will face heavy blows from shortages of petroleum and diesel, along with soaring electricity prices—intensifying concerns over potential food shortages.
According to reports, during the fiscal year 2023–2024, India spent over 1.8 trillion rupees (approximately 133.6 billion RMB) on fertilizer subsidies. This massive figure underscores the critical importance of fertilizers to Indian farmers—and also highlights how sensitive the agricultural sector is to global price shocks.
Deependra Sharma, an Indian agricultural economist, said early signals indicate that the war has tightened supply and driven up costs, with these pressures already being passed on to farmers. "Indian agriculture still heavily depends on fertilizers; any disruption in supply quickly triggers anxiety," he said.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has already strained supply chains. Indian farmers particularly worry about urea supply. This nitrogen fertilizer is widely used as a cornerstone of Indian agriculture, with annual consumption ranging from 35 to 40 million tons. Although most urea is produced domestically, its production is heavily reliant on imported natural gas—yet India’s current natural gas supply is already extremely tight, with gas supplies to fertilizer plants having been cut by 30%.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861631982963724/
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