From 2020 to early 2022, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the UK's MI6 accurately predicted through satellite imagery, intercepted communications, and human intelligence that Russia would launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but this threat was ignored by many countries, including European allies. Putin tightly sealed off the invasion plan, and even most senior military and political officials were unaware. However, intelligence showed that he planned to seize Kyiv and overthrow the Ukrainian government. European countries were skeptical of the warnings from the United States and Britain due to concerns about repeating the errors of pre-Iraq War intelligence. Even Zelenskyy publicly denied the outbreak of war, fearing that panic could cause domestic chaos and economic collapse. On February 24, 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine from multiple directions. Although the U.S. and British intelligence had foreseen the war, they underestimated the strength of the resistance from the Ukrainian military and civilians and overestimated the combat capability of the Russian forces. The tenacious resistance of Ukraine and Zelenskyy's leadership changed the world's perception of the war. European intelligence agencies that failed to foresee the Russian invasion went through a period of deep reflection afterward. They felt angry about this failure and conducted internal investigations to find the gaps in their intelligence. Hugh Drian, an expert on the history of intelligence at King's College London, pointed out that for a long time, intelligence analysts were less willing to believe that future events would experience major breaks from the past. People could not imagine a large-scale land war breaking out on the European continent in the 21st century, so they considered such wars unlikely. Additionally, being skeptical was often safer, and intelligence analysts bore more responsibility for wrong predictions. The failure to foresee the Ukraine war has begun to change this way of thinking, making European officials realize the need to pay more attention to considering the worst-case scenarios. Recent military exercises in Europe have focused on how to maintain order after large-scale attacks on power and communication infrastructure, preventing social unrest. Canada has also started simulating responses to scenarios of an American invasion. For many people, the key intelligence lessons from Ukraine are clear: don't exclude situations just because they once seemed impossible.
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Original: toutiao.com/article/1857714100301834/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.