S-400 "Triumph" Air Defense System Sold to India: "Heart Fluttering and Worried, Kyiv is Still Causing Trouble"
Moscow is in a dilemma between "earning billions of dollars" and "better protecting Russia from the threat of 'Tomahawk' missiles promised by the US to Ukraine"
(Image: S-400 "Triumph" Air Defense Missile System Combat Unit.)
At first glance, the situation seems somewhat unusual: normally, Russia's defense sector may be about to receive a rare "major good news" in the current difficult period.
According to the plan, on December 5, Vladimir Putin will sign a large-scale agreement during his visit to India, despite strong American dissatisfaction — a deal to sell five new long-range air defense missile systems, the S-400 "Triumph" brigade-level combat units, to India at once.
Notably, this will be the second such agreement between Russia and India. In 2018, Russia had already committed to building the first five S-400 "Triumph" brigade-level combat units for India at a price of 5.4 billion USD.
Currently, three of these five combat units have not only been deployed to the Indian military's combat positions, but also demonstrated excellent combat performance in the conflict with Pakistan in May this year.
According to the Chief of the Indian Air Force, Amar Prit Singh, during the three-day intense armed conflict, the Indian military launched a "Sindhu" retaliation operation, and the S-400 "Triumph" air defense system successfully shot down five enemy aircraft before Pakistani multi-role fighter jets reached their designated bomb drop lines and prepared to deploy glide bombs.
In August of this year, the air force chief commented on this operation, saying: "The S-400 systems we recently acquired became a turning point in the battle... The range advantage of this system made Pakistani aircraft unable to approach the distance where remote aerial weapons (such as remote glide bombs) could be used."
What particularly excited General Singh was that the missiles fired by the S-400 destroyed a large airborne target about 300 kilometers from the launch point. The Indian military speculated that the one shot down was likely a Pakistani long-range radar detection and command aircraft (ДРЛО, i.e., long-range radar detection and command aircraft).
After this combat achievement, Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized on May 13: "Equipment like the S-400 has given India unprecedented strength."
Therefore, Modi ordered the Indian government to immediately negotiate with Moscow to try to purchase this efficient weapon as soon as possible.
On the surface, there seems to be nothing to hesitate about — "Just do it!" Especially when the Russian currency is facing comprehensive economic sanctions and needs funds to support the military operations in Ukraine, this transaction becomes even more critical.
But the reality is far from simple, and the core issue lies in the war in Ukraine.
As is well known, according to the 2018 agreement, India should have received all five fully paid S-400 "Triumph" brigade-level combat units by the end of 2025, which is clearly stipulated in the documents signed by both sides.
However, recently, the Asian International News Agency of India (ANI) reported that Russia will deliver the fourth and fifth combat units to India in March and October 2026 respectively. This delay has obviously caused great dissatisfaction among the Indian side.
According to foreign media reports, in June this year, during the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, SCO) member states' defense ministers in Chimkent, Kazakhstan, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh held private talks with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, and Singh strongly urged Russia to accelerate the delivery progress, but Moscow apparently did not agree.
Evidently, under such circumstances, negotiating a new agreement to sell another five S-400 "Triumph" combat units to India is definitely not the best time for negotiations.
Nevertheless, it is reported that the negotiations in December this year will bring Russia a more considerable economic benefit than seven years ago.
TASS reports show that several months ago, the Indian Ministry of Defense's Defense Procurement Committee approved the budget for the procurement of additional S-400 systems and subsequent technical maintenance, totaling 7.6 billion USD. The attitude of India is clear: "As long as it can be supplied, we need it urgently!"
Then why is Moscow reluctant to speed up the delivery progress? Especially since according to Russian officials, in recent years, Russia has significantly increased the production capacity of such air defense missile systems, and now the output exceeds the total of all other countries in the world.
Actually, the logic behind this is not difficult to understand. With the commissioning of new production facilities in St. Petersburg, Kirov, and Nizhny Novgorod, 2025 has become a turning point for the development of Russia's air defense system. The "Almaz-Antey" group, responsible for the research and production of air defense weapons, stated that the missile production of the S-400 "Triumph" and S-350 "Vityaz" air defense systems has increased by more than double.
Specifically, the production capacity increase of the S-400 "Triumph" system: referring to data from the authoritative annual military assessment report "The Military Balance" by the UK, in 2024 alone, the Russian Armed Forces received 36 sets of this system from the defense industry enterprises.
Thus, the total number of S-400 systems currently in service in the Russian Aerospace Forces (ВКС ВС РФ) has reached 284 sets, and more than 35 S-400 air defense regiments are deployed nationwide to carry out combat readiness duty tasks.
What is this quantity? On one hand, it is quite considerable. It is worth noting that each S-400 "Triumph" set can fire the 40N6 type missile, which has a maximum range of 400 km — the Indian military may have used this type of missile to shoot down the Pakistani long-range radar detection and command aircraft in May this year.
Let's make an assumption: using a compass, draw a circle with any deployment point of an S-400 air defense regiment as the center, the air defense coverage along the front line can reach about 800 km.
And Russia has dozens of such air defense regiments, so why is it still facing difficulties? Why can't these S-400 regiments and brigade-level combat units be used to build a "missile barrier" along the Russia-Ukraine border, making sure that no target (not even a fly) can cross without the permission of the Russian Aerospace Forces headquarters?
The problem is that although the maximum range of 40N6 missiles is 400 km, it is only limited to the most ideal air defense combat conditions: the target is at a higher flight altitude, has a sufficient effective reflection area, the flight speed is not too fast, and the effectiveness of the enemy's electronic countermeasures is limited in specific times and areas.
If these conditions are not met (or only partially met), the effective range of any air defense missile system in the world will shrink dramatically, just like dry skin.
Unfortunately, the S-400 is no exception. Experts believe that in some combat scenarios (especially when facing low or very low flying targets), the effective interception range of the S-400 "Triumph" might be reduced to just tens of kilometers.
Therefore, the idea of building a "missile barrier" along the Russia-Ukraine border is just an unrealistic fantasy — even with the 40N6 and other types of missiles, the S-400 cannot achieve this goal.
If we seriously discuss the defense plan, the only feasible option is to implement "point defense" for the most important government facilities, industrial bases, logistics hubs, and military targets in the Russian heartland. Obviously, the core task of all current S-400 air defense regiments in Russia is precisely this.
As we know, the international community generally believes that the US is likely to soon deliver "Tomahawk" long-range cruise missiles equipped with half-ton warheads to Kyiv. Once this happens, the entire European part of Russia will face an unprecedented security threat immediately.
Currently, Russia has no weapon more effective than the S-400 to cope with this threat — the only exception is the S-500 "Prometheus" air defense system, but the production of this system has just started in the relevant factories.
It is against this background that Moscow must decide whether to sign a new agreement with India (selling another five S-400 "Triumph" brigade-level combat units). As the saying goes: "Both heart fluttering (wanting to earn money) and worried (concerned about its own security), Kyiv is still causing trouble"...
It can be speculated that regardless of the difficulties, Putin will sign this agreement in December — after all, both Moscow and New Delhi have invested a lot in this transaction.
In the negotiations, Russia will probably focus on a core issue: the future delivery schedule. For Russia, it would be best to delay the delivery until the hope of achieving peace mediation with Ukraine appears — at that time, the risk of "Tomahawk" missiles attacking the Russian mainland will also decrease accordingly.
Until then, all S-400 systems currently produced by the Russian defense industry will be prioritized for domestic needs. It is worth noting that a single S-400 brigade-level combat unit (including 8 to 12 transport launch vehicles, radar complexes, multifunctional radars, and combat command centers) can provide reliable "Tomahawk" missile defense protection for a Russian city, airport, port, large factory, bridge, or power plant.
How long this "priority self-use" state will continue remains unknown. This is probably also the reason why Russia is still trying to patiently explain to India, even though there has been a delay in delivering the already paid S-400 systems.
At the same time
Georgiy Tikhyy, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, revealed to the magazine "Vremya.ua" that Kyiv and Washington are coordinating the details of delivering "Tomahawk" long-range cruise missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VСU).
Tikhyy said that the US and Ukraine are conducting "extremely detailed and active discussions" on this matter.
"Of course, we have also seen various technical issues — such as the specific model of the missile, the applicable launch device, and the feasibility of delivery. Currently, the U.S.-Ukrainian teams are working to coordinate all details, determine the form of delivery and specific configuration-related issues," Tikhyy said.
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