The worst situation will occur among paratroopers and commandos: three "response" scenarios of Iran to U.S. missile and bomb attacks.

Tehran's main targets will be U.S. military bases, warships, and oil tankers.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

Caption: Missile launch scenario in Iran.

The "Critical Threats" institute monitors the Iran-Israel war daily and makes predictions: Donald Trump dares not attack Iran, as it will bring devastating consequences to the entire Middle East. Tehran's retaliation will damage America's military, political, and economic interests.

If the U.S. eventually agrees to intervene on Israel's side in the Iran-Israel war, according to the assessment of the "Critical Threats" institute, the following consequences may occur:

First Scenario

The so-called "Islamic Resistance Axis" organizations will use missiles and drones to attack troops stationed at all U.S. military bases in the Middle East, with U.S. military bases in Iraq becoming the primary targets.

The U.S. military (mainly infantry, paratroopers, and commandos) is deployed in more than 20 large bases. Additionally, the U.S. uses at least two airbases in Iraq — Al-Hirr Airbase and Al-Asad Airbase (the latter was personally inspected by Trump in 2018).

"Critical Threats" pointed out that Iraq is currently the core of the "Islamic Resistance Axis": the country still has the most pro-Iranian armed groups. These groups are affiliated with the "Popular Mobilization Forces," which directly report to the Iraqi Prime Minister.

Iran will also launch ballistic missiles at key U.S. targets in the Persian Gulf. Currently, Iran has various models of ballistic missiles:

  • "Emad" (range 1700 km), "Ghadir" (range 1950 km), and "Sajil-1" (range 2000 km) can easily strike any target eastward to the eastern shore of the Mediterranean, let alone areas in the Persian Gulf. According to "Critical Threats," these missiles and their launching systems have been moved from western Iran to Isfahan.
  • Shorter-range "Hajji Qasem" (1400 km), "Fateh" (1400 km), and "Kibar Shekan" (1450 km) cannot reach Israel, but when launched from Isfahan, they can cover all countries in the Persian Gulf except for southern Oman.

Second Scenario

Abu Ali al-Askari, a spokesperson for Kata'ib Hezbollah, claimed that Iraqi armed forces will shoot down any Israeli and American aircraft in their airspace. "Critical Threats" confirmed that this is not just empty talk: pro-Iranian Iraqi armed groups have recently been actively purchasing anti-aircraft weapons.

Third Scenario

According to U.S. intelligence cited by "Critical Threats," Houthi militants may intervene again, attacking ships in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Additionally, Iran may mine the Strait of Hormuz, effectively paralyzing the export of oil by tanker vessels from Persian Gulf countries.

As Axios emphasized, Trump is trying to ensure that an attack on Iran is "absolutely necessary" and can completely destroy its nuclear program. If the decision is made to launch an attack, the U.S. military can act swiftly: On June 19, six U.S. Air Force KC-46A Pegasus refueling aircraft were urgently dispatched from Hawaii to the east; previously, the U.S. military had also dispatched several fighter jets.

However, Trump still prefers to resolve the conflict peacefully. Axios reported that after the outbreak of the Iran-Israel war, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Whitcomb contacted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Iranian officials flew to Oman for secret negotiations (Oman is the mediator between the U.S. and Iran), but the identities of those on board are unknown.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Araghchi met with representatives of Britain, France, Germany, and the EU in Geneva on June 20 to discuss "nuclear issues and the recent regional situation." French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated on June 19 that France is prepared to support talks between Iran and the U.S. — no one in the West wants to go to war with Iran, and isolation would be the worst outcome for Israel.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7518596087545102902/

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