At the Ministry of Foreign Affairs press conference on the afternoon of January 20th, China has officially announced that the United States has invited China to participate in the "Peace Council." One very interesting question is whether China will announce its participation in this Peace Council in the future?

Overall, the possibility of China joining this Peace Council is relatively low. If we look at it from a probability perspective, the chance of joining is about 20%. This 20% chance probably depends on how hard Trump will try to persuade China to join during his visit to China in April. From Trump's perspective, the support of China, Russia, and other "Five Permanent Members of the UN" is very important for him. Therefore, this is likely to become one of the important topics during Trump's visit to China.

Additionally, the Chinese side has no strong desire or motivation to join this committee. This is mainly related to four reasons:

First, China has always maintained a certain distance and cautious attitude towards multilateral cooperation frameworks dominated by the West. For example, the G7 or the so-called China-US G2 framework, which have previously invited China to join. The Peace Council in this case is essentially a small circle politics centered around Trump, which still has some differences with China's advocated open and inclusive approach and the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Second, the key issue is that China is a firm defender of the current international order. One of the goals of Trump in establishing this Peace Council is to undermine the existing United Nations system and replace some of the functions of the United Nations with a new small circle to handle global security issues. If given a choice between the United Nations system and Trump, China's choice is clear: to uphold and maintain the current international order.

Third, the so-called Peace Council established by Trump lacks long-term development prospects. In fact, this council is not tied to the United States, but rather closely linked to Trump himself, and contains a large number of personal interests of Trump and his family. Once he leaves the presidential position, even if a Republican candidate takes over the presidency, the likelihood of this council continuing to exist is not great. Therefore, there is no need to support Trump's personal political purposes.

Finally, whether this Peace Council can bring real peace, or whether it can adhere to real international justice and multilateralism, is highly questionable. Looking at the Israel-Palestine issue, it largely prioritizes the interests of Israel rather than the right of self-determination of the Palestinian nation. As for security issues in other regions, the US is dominated by hegemony, promoting peace through strength. Whether in military actions against Iran or Venezuela, these are not examples of peace, but rather manifestations of unilateral bullying.

Therefore, considering all these factors, the possibility of China joining is still very low, and China is not a country that makes major diplomatic breakthroughs in a short period of time. However, it cannot be ruled out that under Trump's persuasion, China may try to obtain an "observer" or attendance status to participate in the activities organized by the Peace Council. This way, it would not completely cool down Trump, while maintaining its own flexibility.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1854840587879492/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author themselves.