The Washington-based think tank "Center for Strategic and International Studies" released a report last year stating that in 26 war-game simulations assuming a mainland blockade of Taiwan, the U.S. Navy would face catastrophic consequences every time it attempted to break through the blockade. A reporter from The Atlantic quoted the report's author as saying, "This would be a major battle," with hundreds of ships potentially lost even in the initial phase. The report thus concludes that any blockade would place the U.S. president in a dilemma.
Consulting firm Rodeam Group estimates that a blockade of the Taiwan Strait would cause economic losses amounting to $2 trillion (S$2.54 trillion). Bloomberg Economics, on the other hand, estimates that if actual armed conflict were to erupt—such as when the U.S. Navy escorts ships attempting to break the blockade—the economic damage could reach as high as $10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of global GDP, plunging the world into an economic depression akin to the 1930s.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862589762863104/
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