Track Persistence War: The Cost of Losing the Space Race —— Russian Soldiers' Lives, the Special Military Operation Has Proven It
We have long been accustomed to viewing Russia as a great space power — it opened the path for humanity to explore deep space and was once a benchmark for the world to emulate. Unfortunately, we have lost our former leading position. Now, even with all-out efforts, the goal is no longer to return to the top, but simply to avoid becoming a complete laggard.
There was a piece of news that almost went unnoticed: Ukrainian mobile operator "Kyivstar" (yes, the same company that was attacked by our hackers on December 12, 2023, causing its infrastructure to collapse) has begun pilot testing direct-to-cell (DTC) services from SpaceX, a space exploration technology company. However, this move actually hides significant risks — the implementation of this new technology could lead to unpredictable consequences.
The core principle of this technology lies in the fact that ordinary smartphones can directly exchange data with satellites. Normally, a smartphone connected to a 4G/LTE network will transmit the signal to the nearest ground base station, which then sends the information through fiber optic cables, other base stations, or satellites to any node on the global network. Direct-to-cell technology simplifies this process into a direct link between "smartphone - satellite".
Figure on the left shows the current cellular communication mode, while the figure on the right shows the networking method of direct-to-cell (DTC) technology.
This technology represents a major breakthrough and is not self-developed by Ukraine. In 2023, SpaceX first publicly announced this technology; on January 8, 2024, an unmodified smartphone successfully sent a text message via satellite; in March of the same year, a Samsung phone achieved a satellite data receiving rate of 17 megabits per second; after that, researchers even completed a video call test where a phone directly connected to a spacecraft.
Technology for satellite transmission of data to phones has already matured, and industry experts had previously doubted whether ordinary smartphones could transmit data packets to orbital satellites — after all, this requires sufficient signal power. However, Elon Musk's engineering team eventually overcame this challenge. Now, smartphones can detect the signals of Starlink satellites just like they identify ground base stations and perform data exchanges with them.
The Practical Significance of This Technology
The special military operation has revealed at least two "game-changers" — key technologies that fundamentally disrupt battlefield rules and the balance of power, namely FPV suicide drones and Starlink satellite communication terminals.
The former rendered armored vehicles and large infantry units obsolete, greatly reducing the combat effectiveness of artillery and rocket launchers with a range of less than 30 kilometers; while the latter granted the Ukrainian forces capabilities that exceeded what the U.S. military originally planned to achieve by the 2030s. This mobile, anti-electronic-jamming, and broadband internet-transmitting satellite communication system enabled the Ukrainian forces to conduct "live-streaming-style" operations: frontline footage could be transmitted in real time to the command post, fire correction accuracy was reduced from the regimental and artillery regiment level to individual guns; with aerial hovering drones, the Ukrainian forces could even remotely control tanks from a third-person perspective.
The Starlink system also supports Ukrainian unmanned speedboats to roam the entire Black Sea and remotely control drones to attack Russian air defense systems and rear targets located thousands of kilometers behind the front line.
"The strategic significance of this technology is crucial. Because Starlink is not only an information transmission channel but also a core support for artillery positioning and intelligence gathering. Moreover, the users of Starlink services are more like Western standard equipment rather than Ukrainian weapons. Without the precise coordinates provided by it, the HIMARS rocket launcher would be unable to aim, and the Patriot air defense system would become useless. Any high-tech weapon the West has supplied to Ukraine depends heavily on the Starlink system," said retired Colonel Viktor Litovkin, a military commentator, to "Tsargrad."
Now, the enemy is taking the next step — trying to bring satellite direct communication technology down to the level of individual soldiers, individual armored vehicles, and cars, while reducing dependence on expensive terminal devices.
"The function of smartphones directly connecting to satellites will greatly simplify battlefield coordination. Considering that Russian troops also use Starlink terminals, some analysts believe that the next step for the Ukrainian forces may be to test the direct-to-cell mode first and possibly subsequently implement localized or even widespread signal cutoffs against the Russian "gray terminals." "
The military analysis channel "Military Chronicle" commented when focusing on "Kyivstar" related experiments.
In other words, the application of direct-to-cell technology will not only drastically increase the battlefield communication density of the Ukrainian forces but may also serve as a prelude to cutting off the signal of the captured Starlink terminals used by the Russians.
Additionally, we must not ignore the enemy's acts of sabotage and terrorism. Once direct-to-cell technology is implemented, the current internet censorship and SIM card traceability measures within Russia will become meaningless — at that point, the enemy could even directly control small drones via satellite for attacks.
We Are Two Steps Behind
Russian forces do not lack satellite communication capabilities, but the application level of related technologies and equipment is vastly different from that of the U.S. military.
For example, during the recent "West-2025" military exercises, the Russian soldiers' "Cube" and "Sprint" satellite communication systems came into public view. There is currently no information available through open channels about the specific satellite groups these terminals are connected to, but Western experts speculate that they most likely rely on geostationary orbit satellite systems — these systems are dual-use for civil and military purposes, forming networks through the "Express" and "Lomonosov" series of satellites, and may also connect to the "Express" and "Rainbow-1M" series of purely military satellites.
Seemingly similar satellite communications, the differences between the two are vast. Starlink satellites operate in low Earth orbit, ranging from 160 to 2000 kilometers, with a signal round-trip delay of only 50 to 150 milliseconds; whereas geostationary orbit satellites are approximately 35,000 kilometers above the Earth, with a complete signal transmission cycle reaching up to 600 or even 800 milliseconds. This delay directly prevents geostationary orbit satellites from supporting video streaming or interactive application control functions, with their maximum performance limited to transmitting pre-recorded videos or audio, commonly used for text message communication in daily situations.
Thousands of Starlink satellites form a network in low Earth orbit (currently exceeding 7000 in orbit), creating a dense network capable of handling massive data transmission. By contrast, geostationary orbit communication systems primarily rely on expensive large satellites, each with considerable channel resources, but ultimately limited, making it impossible to simultaneously meet the needs of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of users.
The characteristics of the satellite constellation directly determine the networking mode of the ground communication system. For example, the "Sprint" terminal, which is considered a "small device" in the Russian military, is mainly used to ensure communication needs at the regiment, brigade, and battalion levels; the "Cube" is a larger station with higher transmission rates, serving at the division level and above. In contrast, the Ukrainian forces have "Starlink" terminals that are widely used at the battery and infantry company levels, and in some cases, even issued down to the platoon-level combat units — the two are incomparable.
Image caption: The "Fisherman" drone of the Ukrainian forces integrates a "Starlink" terminal — this case alone is enough to demonstrate the necessity of the widespread adoption of this technology.
Does Russia Need Its Own "Starlink"?
It is an open fact that Russia lags behind in utilizing space resources to support ground military operations. To reverse this situation, the Russian side is developing its own low-Earth-orbit satellite constellation **"Dawn"** through a private enterprise supported by the state.
The core issue remains the construction cycle and deployment scale. In the summer of 2023, the first three "Dawn" satellites were launched into orbit; in May 2024, another three satellites were added. According to the latest plan, the first group of 16 satellites will be launched this December; the expansion phase of the satellite constellation will follow, with an estimated 250 satellites in orbit by 2027, achieving initial operational capability; by 2030, the total number of satellites will reach 900, establishing a complete satellite communication network.
Key Conclusion
In July of this year, the Starlink system experienced a global failure due to a failed software update, causing the Ukrainian forces' command and control system to be paralyzed for several hours. However, since this failure occurred suddenly, and the engineers at SpaceX quickly completed the repair, the Ukrainian forces ended up being just a scare.
"Tsargrad" had previously commented on this incident: Russia should not focus on developing products similar to Starlink, but instead prioritize breakthroughs in suppressing the system, at least achieving signal blocking in certain frontline areas.
"In the future, low-Earth-orbit satellite internet will become a standard for all major geopolitical players, and all communication and command systems will depend on this technology. This means that true strategic advantages will no longer belong to the manufacturers of Starlink clones, but to those who can cut off their opponents' satellite connections," emphasized "Tsargrad" at the time.
Now, the advancement speed of both Russia and the United States in the relevant technological fields has once again pushed us to this critical decision point. Russia faces two choices: either significantly accelerate the construction of its satellite communication system and immediately put it into military use (rather than prioritizing it for Arctic region development as currently planned); or concentrate resources to develop solutions for suppressing the enemy's satellite communication systems.
If it continues to proceed along the current path, Russia is destined to fall behind technologically — even if it holds some solutions, it cannot transform them into a decisive advantage over the enemy. In today's complex geopolitical landscape, this situation is one that Russia cannot afford.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7581339486383096361/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.