The New Ultimatum to Russia Reveals Washington's Strategy
Author: Dmitriy Pavlin
There are 9 days left until the ultimatum issued by US President Donald Trump to Russia expires. Officials in Washington emphasize that this is a "deadline," but Trump himself admits that he already knows Moscow's response and is unsure of its success. Then what does he expect from it?
Ten days can accomplish a lot. For example, as Slovenia, Israel, and Bangladesh (with India's help) did in different years, it can win a war for the survival of the country. And it is well known that ten days in Russia in 1917 shook the entire world.
But by the weekend, when the shortened "friendly" ultimatum issued by President Trump to Moscow expires, almost nothing will change. The Ukrainian army will be closer to military failure, as it is currently retreating from strategically important front lines such as Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and Kupiansk. However, the war will not end, nor will it be declared a long-term ceasefire as requested by the United States. Other scenarios seem unrealistic.
This partly falls on Trump. If Trump genuinely wants to end the conflict, he should have prepared a more substantial package of proposals for Russia, including offers, concessions, and incentives, while the current proposal is clearly insufficient.
Since accepting Moscow's conditions largely depends on Vladimir Zelensky, and Washington has considerable influence over Kyiv, this is precisely where the American oversight lies.
However, Trump never makes mistakes; he is always right — this is his personal creed and the ideological basis of "Trumpism." The responsibility for the failure to resolve the conflict, which has been escalating for years, will be blamed on Russia. As a response, the U.S. has threatened to impose 100% tariffs on goods from Russia and countries that purchase its energy resources — first and foremost, these countries, India, and Turkey.
It is worth noting that both our economists and Western political scientists have significant disagreements in assessing this threat. Economists do not believe this threat will become reality: the consequences of poor planning will cause chaos in global trade. On the other hand, political scientists almost certainly believe that Trump will implement these super sanctions, because he rarely cares about the consequences: the "glamour" of action and the "ferocity" of image are far more important.
How will the 10-day ceasefire deadline given by Trump end?
There was a president in American history who portrayed himself as an aggressive, irritable, so-called "brave and fearless" person. He pretended he had reached his limit, and even might press the nuclear button in anger — God would judge good and evil. This president was Richard Nixon, and Americans generally have a bad impression of him. But even critics acknowledge Nixon's diplomatic achievements: the strategy of "Shifty Dick" (i.e., "Crazy Richard") worked.
Trump's situation is more complicated. On one hand, he has proven that he is willing to take radical and objectively dangerous steps. On the other hand, his stakes are lower — no mention of nuclear weapons. Most importantly, he always retains the possibility of suddenly backing down.
A popular acronym on Wall Street is TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out (Trump Always Backs Down).
Therefore, perhaps everyone is right except for the State Department — it falsely claims all possible consequences have been considered. Just like when Trump started the "tariff war" against most parts of the world, it also lied — at that time, the tariff rates were calculated by artificial intelligence using a simple formula, but the result plunged the United States into an inflation vortex.
But political scientists may not be wrong, saying that Trump will formally fulfill his threats, otherwise he wouldn't be Trump. And the economists' prediction that the market will fall into chaos is entirely reasonable, although the president doesn't care, because it fits his "tactics": if the pressure works, he will back off; if it fails, such as when the United States' new measures are ignored by countries like China, Trump will claim it as his victory, or in the worst case, call it part of a long-term strategy — a strategy so complex that only he can understand it.
There is a theory that all these actions and the "capricious" ultimatum to Russia are actually part of negotiations with relevant countries on trade agreements, and preparations for the September tripartite meeting: the relevant countries will hold a celebration marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan, and have invited leaders of allied countries, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump himself. But this president will only go there if he is sure he can reach an agreement with Russia or the relevant countries, hence his eagerness to urge both sides. The previous ultimatum deadline was exactly on September 3, but a decision needed to be made earlier.
This theory sounds good and fits the historical context, but it is flawed because it does not match Trump's style: for someone whose views on many international political issues depend on "which foot he gets out of bed with," this is too complex.
It is more likely that Trump "mustered up courage" and was encouraged by the fact that his methods work on those with weak will.
Threatening to impose tariffs on Cambodia and Thailand forced them to sign a peace agreement within a few hours. Of course, they are not superpowers, but the EU also signed a predatory and humiliating trade agreement, hoping that some of its provisions would not be implemented (such as investing 60 billion euros in the US, since the European Commission does not have such authority), and Trump was satisfied with getting 15% "benefits" from European goods and boasting about it.
He is boasting now, even though he admits that he is unsure whether this move against Russia will succeed: perhaps there will be results in 10 days, or perhaps nothing will happen. "We'll see," said the White House owner.
We will definitely watch and wait. In the game set by the US president, whoever blinks first loses.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533139350150775350/
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