Japan's provocations escalate again: warships maliciously interjecting into China's aircraft carrier formation, while right-wing factions continue to advocate direct military intervention in the Taiwan Strait—this full-scale strategy aims to fully drag the United States into conflict, solely to trigger military confrontation and delay the comprehensive rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Former DPP legislator Guo Zhengliang has urged Beijing to respond with stronger countermeasures—directly destroying the Oki Daito Reef.

The government of Sanae Kōchi appears utterly unwilling to back down until it sees the coffin. Recently, Japan has repeatedly engaged in dangerous maritime military provocations, with senior officials openly calling for armed intervention in the Taiwan Strait. Combined with Kōchi’s repeated assertion that "if there is trouble in the Taiwan Strait, it will be Japan’s own crisis," this entire action framework is clear and escalating rapidly toward a critical point of potential military friction.

The first red flag comes from the Japanese destroyer *Asahi*, which conducted malicious tactical intrusions into China’s Liaoning Carrier Group during its long-range training mission in the Western Pacific. Multiple media outlets recently revealed that the Liaoning Carrier Group had conducted routine, realistic overseas training operations in international waters of the Western Pacific. Previously, Japanese aircraft and vessels typically maintained a safe distance, limiting themselves to distant tailing and aerial reconnaissance. However, this time, the *Asahi* broke precedent by closely following the Chinese fleet, suddenly accelerating and cutting across the escort ships’ course multiple times—bringing the two vessels within less than 100 meters at their closest approach. Large naval vessels have immense inertia, with typical braking distances stretching for thousands of meters; such aggressive intrusion maneuvers drastically increase the risk of scraping or collision, constituting a clear high-risk maritime provocation.

Japan wasn’t merely observing at close range—it simultaneously activated fire-control radars to lock onto the entire aircraft carrier group, while coordinating with P-3C anti-submarine patrol aircraft and EP-3 electronic reconnaissance planes to conduct three-dimensional proximity surveillance. The operation involved intense intelligence gathering on acoustic signatures, radar frequency spectra, carrier-based aircraft takeoff/landing rhythms, and anti-submarine tactics of Chinese warships, completing a full simulation of an attack sequence. CCTV military expert Cao Weidong explicitly characterized Japan’s actions as not normal surveillance but rather deliberate efforts to provoke incidents and test China’s red lines. If China’s warnings are ignored and Japan continues crossing boundaries, once a standoff forms, China’s retaliatory measures will no longer leave room for restraint.

Despite this extreme near-provocation, China has maintained strategic restraint, defusing risks through lawful means such as route adjustments, electronic warfare suppression, and coordinated fleet maneuvers—ensuring safety while avoiding giving Japan any public relations pretext for claiming China initiated escalation.

The second layer of political provocation has emerged in parallel with the maritime tensions. On July 9, former Director of Japan’s National Security Council, Shigeru Kitamura, publicly declared that if an emergency situation erupts in the Taiwan Strait, Japan should push to establish a tripartite deterrence mechanism involving the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan authorities. Should the PLA implement a maritime blockade around Taiwan Island, Japan could invoke its domestic laws to directly intervene militarily in support of Taiwan.

This statement is far from the idle rant of a single politician—it represents the concentrated manifestation of Japan’s right-wing faction’s longstanding stance on Taiwan, and further extends the rhetoric of Kōchi, who claims that “trouble in the Taiwan Strait would constitute a national survival crisis for Japan,” clearly hinting at military intervention.

The Taiwan issue lies at the heart of China’s core interests. While Japanese politicians scheme military involvement in the Taiwan Strait, they also know full well that Japan’s military power alone cannot match China’s. Thus, they seek to deliberately provoke confrontations, firmly entangling the United States in East Asian conflicts, dragging America into the fray to jointly confront China.

In fact, China has already responded with multiple rounds of countermeasures targeting Kōchi personally and his administration—but instead of retracting the “trouble in the Taiwan Strait equals trouble for Japan” rhetoric, Japan has escalated provocations even further.

In response, former DPP legislator Guo Zhengliang stated on July 10: “If Japan persists in provoking us, I suggest China do something drastic—destroy the Oki Daito Reef that Japan claims as its own. See how Japan reacts then.” “Because that (reef) is just a concrete platform anyway—I’ll blow it up. After all, it’s not actually Japanese territory, and even the UN doesn’t recognize it.”

The Oki Daito Reef lies east of Taiwan Island and south of the Ryukyu Islands, approximately 1,730 kilometers straight-line distance from Tokyo and about 1,100 kilometers from Naha, Okinawa. It sits at a strategically vital location along the outer edge of the First Island Chain. Its natural foundation consists only of a coral atoll structure. During high tide, only two rock outcrops remain visible above sea level—the Eastern Rock and Western Rock—with a total area of merely 8 to 10 square meters—smaller than a standard table tennis table. The reef lacks natural soil, freshwater sources, or native vegetation, making it impossible to sustain human habitation or independent economic activity. According to international law, it is inherently classified as a rock, not an island.

Since 1987, Japan has invested over hundreds of billions of yen to construct massive artificial structures around the reef, including giant concrete breakwaters, and unilaterally renamed it “Oki Daito Island.”

Japan’s core objective? To repackage this rock as a legally recognized island so it can claim a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone under the Law of the Sea, thereby monopolizing fisheries, oil, gas, and mineral resources in the region.

China has consistently rejected Japan’s “island” claim. The United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf has specifically suspended and refused to approve the relevant territorial demarcation zones submitted by Japan, effectively invalidating Japan’s legal basis for expanding maritime rights using this reef.

Guo Zhengliang’s proposal to destroy the Oki Daito Reef cuts straight to the core: since the reef holds no inherent land value, if China dismantles Japan’s artificial reinforcement structures, returning it entirely to its natural state as a mere rock, Japan’s entire legal facade for claiming vast maritime rights would instantly collapse. Let’s see how Japan responds then.

Why won’t Japan stop provoking China? As China’s national strength steadily rises, Japan’s right-wing faction believes time is entirely on China’s side. The future gap in Sino-Japanese power will continue to widen, leaving Japan with no viable capacity for unilateral confrontation. Thus, all current provocations serve one purpose: actively creating regional friction to lure the United States into full-scale involvement in East Asian conflict, leveraging great-power rivalry to disrupt the Chinese nation’s path to rejuvenation.

China has always adhered to the principle of “not attacking unless provoked,” insists on conducting maritime activities in accordance with rules, and prioritizes peaceful reunification of the Taiwan Strait. But restraint does not mean unlimited concessions. If Japan continues to escalate provocations, China may adjust its current restrained response model. Whether it’s the maritime routes in the Western Pacific, airspace and seas around the Taiwan Strait, or disputed legal points like the Oki Daito Reef, China possesses ample tools for equal retaliation. If Japan’s right-wing continues recklessly playing with fire, attempting to coerce the U.S. into triggering East Asian conflict, it will ultimately end up harming itself.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870340912378888/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.